Hindsight is 20/20 in every area of life. It is easy, after nine innings, to see how foolish it was to eat nine hot dogs and drink nine beers. Did you turn off the 2014 AL Wild Card Game when hope seemed lost, or did you watch the Kansas City Royals’ magic postseason run begin?

Hindsight lets people know what the right decision was. Zoom in on the Royals’ front office decisions over the past few years, and some calls have aged much better than fans’ initial reactions. Trading away Aroldis Chapman for Cole Ragans, signing Seth Lugo, and extending Bobby Witt Jr. are all recent moves that, in hindsight, look like the right calls. But there is one trade from 2022 that could move from an indifferent outcome to a Royals miss in 2026.

Ahead of the 2022 MLB Draft, the Royals sent the 35th overall pick to the Atlanta Braves for a trio of prospects. Infielder C.J. Alexander, pitcher Andrew Hoffmann and outfielder Drew Waters were all controllable players with their own traits that enticed a rebuilding team like the Royals.

Waters especially, who was Atlanta’s top prospect at the time, looked like a future everyday player in Kansas City. The outfield desperately needed a reliable player and there was plenty of optimism that Waters could turn into such a fixture.

How time tells a different story.

The Royals’ side of this 2022 trade looks worse and worse entering 2026.

Alexander has played in four different organizations since making an abbreviated debut in 2024, and the 29-year-old is facing an uncertain road in free agency. Hoffmann was traded away for half a year of outfielder Randal Grichuk, and his production in Arizona is far from stellar.

Two-thirds of this trade are already gone from Kansas City, on to different paths with their days of endless possibility behind them. And then there is Waters.

The outfielder is still on Kansas City’s 40-man roster, but for how much longer remains to be seen. The Georgia native enters this season with no more minor-league options, little success at the plate in 2025, and as part of Kansas City’s current outfield problem.

Waters had a promising initial run with Kansas City in 2022, but has consistently regressed at the plate and not lived up to his fielding potential. The Royals’ non-tendering teammate MJ Melendez felt like a foregone conclusion before the deadline came and went, and Kansas City moving on from Waters ahead of Opening Day feels the same.

So, that leaves Kansas City 0-for-3 in this trade, but what about the Braves’ side of the deal? Atlanta dipped into the ever-volatile prep pitching pool with their newly acquired pick, selecting JR Ritchie.

The righty only had nine starts in his first two professional seasons, going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in 2023. The following season was more focused on his recovery rather than the results, but Ritchie looked back to his old form in 12 appearances to close out the 2024 season. 2025 felt like Ritchie’s coming-out party, putting to paper why the Braves drafted him so high in 2022.

He lived up to those expectations, posting a 2.64 ERA across 140 innings pitched and 26 starts. He looked healthy, effective at limiting quality contact, and even reached Triple-A Gwinnett before the season was through.

JR RITCHIE JUST TOSSED A CLINIC.

6.0 IP | 1 H | 0 R | 2 BB | 11 K pic.twitter.com/RrK5JDaGgm

— Gwinnett Stripers (@GoStripers) August 28, 2025

It is unfair to call Ritchie a sure thing entering 2026, but he is a consensus top-three prospect in Atlanta’s system and seems poised for an MLB debut in 2026. He doesn’t have the elite frontline stuff that prospect peer Cam Caminiti has, but his six-pitch mix is effective against all batters and gives him a solid middle-rotation outlook for Atlanta.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is where it is, and this trade is trending in the wrong direction for the organization.

The draft is a tricky thing, and more often than not, prospects simply do not pan out. But Kansas City is certainly no better for having made this trade, and its farm system is still considered below average heading into 2026.

Having Ritchie in the fold would certainly bolster that perception and at least provide the Royals another trade chip to address their current concerns. Trading away a pick for a team’s top prospect and other players seemed like the right call at the time. But hindsight is 20/20, and Kansas City’s result is a reminder of how quickly a reasonable gamble can age poorly.