For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.
Batters
Remember how 2024 was a major disappointment for the Atlanta Braves? Well, Father Time apparently took umbrage at that description being applied to an 89-win team that at least made the playoffs, and proceeded to have his beer held as he cooked up something really disappointing in his workshop. The Braves finished with a 76-86 record, the team’s worst showing in a season where it was actually considered a viable contender coming into Opening Day since 2008. Now they hope to put things back together with more or less the same core talent.
Just looking at our depth chart, you’d feel pretty good about the Braves, except for a couple things: They look a bit worse at (almost) every position than they did at this time last year, and we’re getting those WAR numbers with quite a lot of the starters projected for at least 600 plate appearances. The first is a problem because a team with slightly better projections just won 76 games, and the second is worrisome because ZiPS is quite meh on Atlanta’s offensive talent once you get past the team’s impressive first-tier players.
The one place where the Braves did get a projection boost is at catcher, with Drake Baldwin a lot more established than he was coming into 2025. The position didn’t disappoint this season, and there’s no reason for particular worry here. Holding steady is Matt Olson, who more than pulled his weight in his fourth consecutive ironman season. His 2025 paled next to 2023’s 54-homer campaign, likely Olson’s high-water mark, but it represented a nice recovery from a down 2024.
Elsewhere, there are questions. Austin Riley missed significant time to injury, and for the third consecutive season, he shed a good chunk of his wRC+. Ronald Acuña Jr. was his usual terrific self when healthy, but after being plagued by Achilles issues, he appears to be running out of parts in his legs that haven’t been injured. Michael Harris II suddenly hit like a Double-A player for months, and though he made up some of the loss with a hot July and August, you have to have questions about a major leaguer who can go a half-season with a .234 on-base percentage. I’m also not sure that Ozzie Albies is even good anymore, which is a major bummer, as he’s now only a couple of years from hitting free agency and otherwise having the opportunity to make up for one of the worst pre-free agency contracts ever signed by a good player.
Help is unlikely to come from the minors. Atlanta has developed an impressive number of position players, but until/unless the 2025 draftees succeed, Baldwin might be the last short-term boost from within for a bit. And while the Braves aren’t cheap in the sense that teams like the Rays or Marlins are, the organization isn’t known for being super aggressive in free agency.
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In short: If the Braves get a bit of good fortune for a change, this could be a really good lineup, but there’s a lot that could easily go very wrong.
Pitchers
The problem with the starting lineup’s projections repeats here, especially in the rotation: There are a lot of good projections, but they’re mostly a bit worse than they were last year. Unfortunately, pitchers being pitchers, I have less confidence in the rotation staying healthy than I do the lineup.
I’m certainly hopeful about Chris Sale, whose late-career mini-comeback has put him in plausible Hall of Fame territory, at least for me. On the plus side, his rib cage injury, like the bicycle-aided broken wrist in 2022, wasn’t a recurrence of his prior elbow problems, so I’m cautiously optimistic here. But he’s also going to be 37, an age where decline becomes a serious year-to-year concern for pitchers.
Both ZiPS and I are relatively bullish on Spencer Schwellenbach coming back from the stress fracture in his elbow, even if he has to give back some velocity to take some pressure off things. Reynaldo López’s shoulder showed no structural damage, but baseball’s medical wizards have become adept at fixing elbows quicker than shoulders, so caution is warranted there. I personally have no idea what Spencer Strider is now, as he’s lost a lot of velocity and his ability to get whiffs inside the strike zone is diminished.
The good news is that ZiPS sees Atlanta’s rotation as having better emergency options than the lineup. Bryce Elder and Hurston Waldrep are reasonable fifth starter options, and the computer thinks JR Ritchie and Lucas Braun could fill-in where needed without it being a major disaster.
ZiPS projects the bullpen to be competently average, and while nobody is forecast to be a dominant arm, the numbers don’t start looking worrisome until you get to the sixth or seventh relievers, which is true of most teams this early in the offseason. ZiPS sees Joel Payamps as a decent addition who adds some heft to the ‘pen. I expect a few moves to be made here, though it’s unlikely to be anything that would push Atlanta into being a top tier bullpen.
When you assume that a lot of injuries will inevitably happen, the Braves look like an 84-88 win team (or somewhere thereabouts) depending on who the healthy guys are. That’s better than last year’s finish, but still kind of a disappointment. Uh oh, maybe I should avoid using that word again!
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.
Batters – Advanced
Player
PA
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS+
ISO
BABIP
Def
WAR
wOBA
3YOPS+
RC
Ronald Acuña Jr.
529
.286
.399
.520
157
.234
.326
-4
4.5
.395
155
99
Michael Harris II
609
.275
.308
.455
112
.180
.313
7
3.8
.326
112
86
Drake Baldwin
485
.265
.340
.468
125
.203
.293
0
3.7
.349
125
69
Matt Olson
661
.250
.342
.468
126
.218
.295
4
3.4
.348
119
92
Austin Riley
539
.262
.325
.477
123
.215
.317
-1
3.2
.343
119
76
Sean Murphy
367
.224
.316
.430
108
.206
.268
5
2.6
.324
103
44
Marcell Ozuna
566
.248
.346
.446
122
.198
.297
0
2.4
.344
113
75
Ha-Seong Kim
441
.244
.328
.361
95
.117
.284
3
2.1
.306
92
51
Ozzie Albies
601
.250
.309
.404
99
.154
.268
-2
1.9
.310
98
72
Jesús Bastidas
546
.228
.299
.373
88
.145
.298
4
1.6
.295
88
58
Brett Wisely
433
.243
.310
.375
92
.132
.304
4
1.6
.300
90
48
Nacho Alvarez Jr.
437
.237
.317
.326
82
.089
.296
8
1.5
.290
85
42
Eli White
308
.240
.296
.371
87
.131
.316
8
1.1
.292
84
35
Jurickson Profar
501
.252
.346
.406
112
.154
.279
-7
1.1
.331
109
63
Charles Leblanc
359
.235
.324
.359
93
.124
.325
0
1.0
.304
92
38
Brewer Hicklen
410
.213
.298
.381
90
.169
.309
3
0.9
.298
89
46
Alex Verdugo
469
.251
.310
.376
92
.125
.282
2
0.7
.301
92
51
Conner Capel
405
.221
.291
.347
79
.126
.276
7
0.6
.282
78
41
Luke Waddell
456
.234
.304
.298
71
.064
.278
5
0.6
.272
73
39
Mauricio Dubón
402
.253
.293
.357
82
.104
.276
0
0.6
.284
82
40
Jake Marisnick
186
.214
.281
.369
82
.155
.301
1
0.4
.285
74
19
Jonathan Ornelas
477
.218
.286
.301
66
.083
.297
3
0.4
.262
69
40
Michael Siani
458
.204
.279
.293
62
.089
.281
7
0.4
.258
65
39
Cody Milligan
409
.223
.297
.305
71
.082
.321
8
0.3
.271
71
38
Jair Camargo
301
.209
.256
.340
67
.131
.317
2
0.3
.260
73
25
Vidal Bruján
296
.228
.292
.321
73
.093
.282
3
0.3
.272
75
30
David McCabe
503
.233
.306
.358
87
.125
.306
-7
0.2
.293
88
50
Eddy Alvarez
306
.206
.300
.328
78
.122
.286
-1
0.2
.283
75
29
José Azocar
336
.240
.284
.333
74
.093
.305
1
0.2
.272
76
35
Chuckie Robinson
315
.223
.274
.309
64
.086
.305
1
0.1
.259
62
25
Jarred Kelenic
466
.230
.292
.376
87
.146
.317
-7
0.1
.291
88
51
Jim Jarvis
406
.227
.283
.299
65
.072
.270
2
0.1
.260
68
35
Austin Nola
187
.218
.284
.309
68
.091
.262
-2
0.0
.263
67
14
Garrett Cooper
315
.231
.295
.371
87
.140
.312
1
0.0
.292
82
32
Jose Devers
285
.233
.285
.328
73
.095
.279
-1
0.0
.271
72
25
Chandler Seagle
197
.175
.221
.235
29
.060
.290
7
-0.1
.205
28
10
David Fletcher
341
.219
.259
.272
50
.053
.253
8
-0.1
.237
50
24
E.J. Exposito
431
.207
.260
.338
67
.131
.282
2
-0.1
.262
71
38
Sandy León
211
.162
.246
.286
50
.124
.235
1
-0.1
.241
44
13
Chadwick Tromp
270
.204
.256
.316
60
.112
.263
0
-0.1
.252
58
20
Keshawn Ogans
363
.220
.287
.284
62
.064
.277
2
-0.2
.259
63
30
Luke Williams
301
.203
.259
.308
59
.105
.287
1
-0.2
.251
59
27
John Gil
487
.214
.278
.296
62
.082
.264
-3
-0.2
.258
68
44
Dylan Shockley
149
.167
.250
.205
31
.038
.323
2
-0.3
.215
29
7
Kobe Kato
236
.188
.284
.275
59
.087
.275
-2
-0.3
.257
60
19
Matthew Batten
447
.199
.263
.302
59
.103
.266
10
-0.4
.252
58
35
Will Verdung
330
.218
.285
.262
56
.044
.288
8
-0.5
.248
58
24
Ambioris Tavarez
435
.196
.269
.272
54
.076
.348
2
-0.6
.245
59
33
Cade Bunnell
343
.177
.265
.289
57
.112
.326
6
-0.6
.251
56
24
Ethan Workinger
503
.223
.276
.350
75
.127
.271
0
-0.6
.275
79
48
Drew Compton
430
.228
.286
.311
69
.083
.325
3
-0.7
.265
71
35
Stephen Paolini
311
.192
.264
.288
56
.096
.312
3
-0.7
.248
60
25
Patrick Clohisy
551
.231
.287
.310
69
.079
.296
-8
-0.7
.266
73
57
Joe Olsavsky
314
.189
.290
.251
55
.062
.262
3
-0.8
.254
59
21
Adam Zebrowski
380
.197
.255
.306
58
.109
.285
-5
-0.8
.249
65
28
Justin Janas
395
.230
.291
.305
69
.075
.288
-1
-0.8
.268
71
34
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
459
.205
.268
.274
54
.069
.291
1
-0.8
.245
58
37
Mac Guscette
268
.184
.246
.262
44
.078
.226
-2
-0.9
.229
46
17
Carlos Arroyo
160
.162
.219
.216
24
.054
.261
-1
-1.0
.199
32
8
Geraldo Quintero
434
.211
.290
.304
68
.093
.271
-2
-1.0
.268
72
42
Tyler Tolve
246
.183
.232
.301
49
.118
.313
-5
-1.0
.235
53
16
Jake Steels
235
.172
.249
.215
33
.043
.232
4
-1.1
.217
33
12
Lizandro Espinoza
431
.182
.234
.303
50
.121
.259
-2
-1.1
.237
56
33
Cal Conley
528
.210
.259
.272
50
.062
.273
-2
-1.2
.238
51
40
Colby Jones
498
.196
.269
.227
42
.031
.275
3
-1.2
.230
46
37
Isaiah Drake
480
.214
.267
.286
56
.072
.305
-5
-1.3
.247
59
41
Mason Guerra
393
.180
.254
.296
55
.116
.244
1
-1.4
.247
61
27
Bryson Horne
337
.199
.240
.306
53
.107
.293
0
-1.6
.239
56
24
Jace Grady
301
.179
.243
.252
40
.073
.251
-2
-1.9
.224
41
19
Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player
80th BA
80th OBP
80th SLG
80th OPS+
80th WAR
20th BA
20th OBP
20th SLG
20th OPS+
20th WAR
Ronald Acuña Jr.
.312
.427
.590
180
5.8
.256
.369
.475
137
3.1
Michael Harris II
.303
.334
.503
130
5.3
.249
.283
.402
91
2.2
Drake Baldwin
.295
.369
.520
148
5.1
.241
.313
.415
105
2.5
Matt Olson
.276
.363
.525
146
4.9
.224
.316
.423
108
2.0
Austin Riley
.288
.352
.543
145
4.6
.238
.302
.431
105
2.0
Sean Murphy
.247
.339
.485
129
3.6
.197
.286
.372
86
1.7
Marcell Ozuna
.274
.372
.504
142
3.7
.224
.324
.395
104
1.2
Ha-Seong Kim
.271
.354
.404
113
3.1
.220
.304
.319
78
1.2
Ozzie Albies
.275
.335
.450
116
3.2
.226
.286
.364
82
0.6
Jesús Bastidas
.252
.322
.421
106
2.8
.201
.272
.321
68
0.3
Brett Wisely
.266
.336
.416
108
2.4
.216
.285
.331
74
0.6
Nacho Alvarez Jr.
.262
.345
.360
98
2.4
.208
.293
.287
65
0.6
Eli White
.274
.322
.427
107
1.9
.210
.264
.320
67
0.3
Jurickson Profar
.279
.372
.449
128
2.1
.226
.319
.360
92
-0.2
Charles Leblanc
.260
.352
.408
114
1.9
.205
.295
.314
74
0.1
Brewer Hicklen
.241
.325
.435
112
2.0
.185
.272
.324
68
-0.1
Alex Verdugo
.281
.339
.426
114
1.9
.229
.284
.338
76
-0.3
Conner Capel
.247
.320
.400
101
1.6
.197
.263
.307
61
-0.4
Luke Waddell
.262
.331
.329
88
1.5
.208
.277
.259
54
-0.4
Mauricio Dubón
.281
.317
.401
101
1.5
.228
.266
.319
65
-0.3
Jake Marisnick
.246
.310
.427
102
0.9
.185
.250
.310
57
-0.1
Jonathan Ornelas
.242
.312
.341
85
1.4
.189
.259
.264
49
-0.7
Michael Siani
.234
.305
.338
81
1.6
.177
.251
.259
47
-0.4
Cody Milligan
.250
.327
.348
90
1.2
.192
.267
.263
51
-0.7
Jair Camargo
.238
.286
.390
86
1.1
.179
.226
.291
46
-0.5
Vidal Bruján
.254
.321
.373
95
1.1
.201
.263
.283
55
-0.4
David McCabe
.257
.330
.402
103
1.2
.204
.278
.317
68
-1.0
Eddy Alvarez
.236
.327
.385
98
1.0
.178
.271
.279
58
-0.6
José Azocar
.269
.313
.377
94
1.1
.214
.258
.290
56
-0.6
Chuckie Robinson
.259
.307
.356
87
1.1
.198
.243
.271
48
-0.5
Jarred Kelenic
.255
.316
.423
105
1.1
.203
.264
.327
66
-1.2
Jim Jarvis
.256
.308
.340
84
1.1
.203
.257
.266
48
-0.7
Austin Nola
.250
.315
.354
88
0.4
.187
.254
.264
49
-0.5
Garrett Cooper
.262
.329
.431
109
0.9
.203
.267
.321
65
-0.8
Jose Devers
.263
.320
.376
94
0.7
.205
.259
.287
54
-0.6
Chandler Seagle
.205
.253
.278
49
0.4
.147
.192
.200
11
-0.6
David Fletcher
.249
.290
.314
71
0.8
.190
.233
.242
34
-0.8
E.J. Exposito
.231
.286
.390
86
1.0
.179
.232
.292
49
-1.2
Sandy León
.194
.271
.347
75
0.5
.141
.216
.237
33
-0.6
Chadwick Tromp
.234
.286
.375
84
0.7
.176
.225
.273
41
-0.7
Keshawn Ogans
.246
.314
.319
78
0.5
.194
.262
.248
45
-1.0
Luke Williams
.229
.289
.360
81
0.8
.176
.233
.271
42
-0.8
John Gil
.247
.309
.340
83
1.0
.189
.251
.258
45
-1.3
Dylan Shockley
.205
.285
.247
50
0.0
.138
.217
.166
11
-0.7
Kobe Kato
.213
.313
.322
79
0.3
.161
.257
.237
42
-0.8
Matthew Batten
.227
.289
.351
80
0.7
.176
.238
.263
43
-1.4
Will Verdung
.248
.313
.299
74
0.2
.188
.255
.224
38
-1.3
Ambioris Tavarez
.225
.296
.312
70
0.3
.168
.242
.229
34
-1.6
Cade Bunnell
.209
.302
.344
81
0.4
.153
.239
.251
39
-1.3
Ethan Workinger
.251
.304
.395
93
0.4
.197
.251
.302
57
-1.8
Drew Compton
.253
.310
.346
85
0.2
.201
.258
.273
50
-1.7
Stephen Paolini
.223
.292
.330
76
0.1
.160
.232
.241
37
-1.5
Patrick Clohisy
.256
.312
.347
84
0.5
.206
.263
.274
54
-1.8
Joe Olsavsky
.216
.321
.290
75
0.0
.164
.264
.216
40
-1.3
Adam Zebrowski
.227
.284
.353
76
0.1
.171
.229
.263
38
-1.6
Justin Janas
.256
.316
.345
88
0.1
.203
.267
.269
53
-1.6
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
.237
.298
.312
73
0.4
.175
.242
.240
37
-1.7
Mac Guscette
.214
.278
.308
65
-0.2
.160
.221
.226
28
-1.5
Carlos Arroyo
.193
.243
.264
41
-0.6
.138
.192
.174
5
-1.3
Geraldo Quintero
.235
.316
.343
85
-0.1
.183
.263
.262
51
-2.0
Tyler Tolve
.210
.260
.346
67
-0.4
.152
.205
.250
28
-1.6
Jake Steels
.198
.273
.249
49
-0.6
.147
.224
.185
18
-1.5
Lizandro Espinoza
.205
.257
.356
68
-0.2
.159
.211
.263
34
-2.1
Cal Conley
.234
.284
.302
65
-0.1
.187
.238
.239
35
-2.2
Colby Jones
.224
.298
.260
60
-0.1
.168
.246
.202
30
-2.1
Isaiah Drake
.244
.291
.327
73
-0.3
.190
.241
.257
42
-2.2
Mason Guerra
.206
.283
.340
74
-0.5
.158
.231
.260
38
-2.2
Bryson Horne
.228
.270
.361
75
-0.6
.173
.213
.269
35
-2.4
Jace Grady
.207
.271
.286
57
-1.3
.156
.216
.211
22
-2.6
Batters – Platoon Splits
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
Ronald Acuña Jr.
.284
.411
.517
.287
.394
.521
Michael Harris II
.268
.301
.426
.279
.312
.468
Drake Baldwin
.259
.333
.440
.267
.343
.478
Matt Olson
.244
.325
.436
.253
.349
.481
Austin Riley
.268
.333
.488
.260
.322
.474
Sean Murphy
.229
.324
.469
.222
.313
.413
Marcell Ozuna
.254
.355
.449
.247
.343
.444
Ha-Seong Kim
.256
.345
.380
.239
.320
.352
Ozzie Albies
.275
.317
.430
.240
.307
.394
Jesús Bastidas
.230
.302
.385
.227
.298
.367
Brett Wisely
.236
.301
.374
.246
.314
.375
Nacho Alvarez Jr.
.241
.325
.339
.235
.313
.321
Eli White
.240
.298
.385
.241
.296
.364
Jurickson Profar
.258
.350
.411
.249
.345
.405
Charles Leblanc
.236
.328
.364
.234
.322
.356
Brewer Hicklen
.217
.301
.388
.210
.295
.378
Alex Verdugo
.240
.294
.336
.256
.316
.392
Conner Capel
.207
.273
.302
.228
.300
.368
Luke Waddell
.227
.295
.294
.237
.307
.300
Mauricio Dubón
.264
.308
.364
.248
.285
.354
Jake Marisnick
.220
.292
.373
.211
.275
.367
Jonathan Ornelas
.224
.299
.321
.214
.278
.290
Michael Siani
.204
.276
.292
.204
.280
.294
Cody Milligan
.208
.284
.292
.230
.304
.311
Jair Camargo
.214
.264
.340
.207
.251
.341
Vidal Bruján
.233
.298
.340
.224
.287
.309
David McCabe
.224
.295
.344
.237
.310
.363
Eddy Alvarez
.197
.295
.276
.210
.302
.349
José Azocar
.248
.295
.363
.236
.278
.317
Chuckie Robinson
.228
.275
.317
.221
.273
.305
Jarred Kelenic
.225
.279
.357
.232
.298
.384
Jim Jarvis
.207
.270
.250
.234
.288
.316
Austin Nola
.232
.290
.321
.211
.281
.303
Garrett Cooper
.241
.304
.398
.227
.291
.360
Jose Devers
.231
.282
.333
.234
.286
.326
Chandler Seagle
.172
.221
.219
.176
.220
.244
David Fletcher
.222
.264
.283
.217
.256
.267
E.J. Exposito
.213
.271
.333
.205
.256
.340
Sandy León
.175
.254
.316
.156
.243
.273
Chadwick Tromp
.213
.268
.326
.199
.249
.311
Keshawn Ogans
.221
.292
.295
.219
.285
.279
Luke Williams
.208
.274
.313
.200
.251
.306
John Gil
.220
.290
.288
.212
.274
.298
Dylan Shockley
.163
.250
.186
.169
.250
.213
Kobe Kato
.182
.274
.273
.191
.287
.276
Matthew Batten
.213
.280
.324
.192
.254
.292
Will Verdung
.214
.287
.274
.220
.284
.257
Ambioris Tavarez
.207
.282
.288
.191
.264
.266
Cade Bunnell
.171
.256
.267
.180
.270
.300
Ethan Workinger
.220
.278
.348
.225
.276
.350
Drew Compton
.231
.283
.308
.227
.287
.313
Stephen Paolini
.182
.255
.250
.197
.268
.306
Patrick Clohisy
.215
.267
.281
.237
.294
.320
Joe Olsavsky
.190
.289
.278
.189
.290
.240
Adam Zebrowski
.202
.263
.327
.195
.252
.297
Justin Janas
.222
.293
.289
.232
.291
.310
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.
.214
.279
.291
.201
.264
.267
Mac Guscette
.195
.259
.299
.180
.240
.246
Carlos Arroyo
.170
.220
.213
.158
.218
.218
Geraldo Quintero
.208
.284
.308
.213
.293
.302
Tyler Tolve
.188
.230
.319
.181
.233
.294
Jake Steels
.182
.257
.212
.168
.245
.217
Lizandro Espinoza
.185
.240
.311
.181
.232
.300
Cal Conley
.212
.257
.269
.209
.259
.273
Colby Jones
.205
.279
.235
.192
.265
.224
Isaiah Drake
.209
.254
.273
.216
.271
.290
Mason Guerra
.185
.264
.296
.178
.250
.296
Bryson Horne
.192
.234
.279
.202
.243
.319
Jace Grady
.176
.244
.257
.180
.242
.250
Pitchers – Standard
Player
T
Age
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
Chris Sale
L
37
9
4
3.10
22
21
124.7
105
43
13
34
150
Spencer Schwellenbach
R
26
8
5
3.39
20
20
124.7
111
47
15
23
122
Spencer Strider
R
27
11
9
3.87
25
24
137.3
117
59
17
46
164
Reynaldo López
R
32
7
5
3.58
35
16
100.7
88
40
11
35
100
Lucas Braun
R
24
6
6
4.29
25
24
130.0
130
62
18
36
110
Hurston Waldrep
R
24
10
9
4.27
26
25
130.7
124
62
15
56
117
Bryce Elder
R
27
9
9
4.38
27
27
152.0
149
74
18
50
128
AJ Smith-Shawver
R
23
5
5
3.90
20
20
80.7
74
35
10
32
88
JR Ritchie
R
23
6
7
4.41
24
24
118.3
113
58
15
43
103
Nathan Wiles
R
27
6
5
4.30
24
16
96.3
102
46
13
23
73
Dylan Dodd
L
28
5
4
4.11
34
11
85.3
87
39
12
21
72
José Suarez
L
28
4
5
4.15
22
13
82.3
81
38
10
28
78
Didier Fuentes
R
21
6
7
4.45
21
21
87.0
84
43
12
29
82
Jhancarlos Lara
R
23
4
5
4.24
32
16
76.3
65
36
8
44
87
Ian Mejia
R
26
6
8
4.61
23
18
109.3
115
56
16
35
83
Alek Manoah
R
28
5
5
4.43
17
17
87.3
82
43
11
35
73
Raisel Iglesias
R
36
5
3
3.51
59
0
56.3
48
22
7
14
60
Dylan Lee
L
31
3
3
3.50
64
0
61.7
53
24
9
18
71
Grant Holmes
R
30
4
3
4.15
24
9
69.3
67
32
9
27
64
Dane Dunning
R
31
4
5
4.57
27
17
100.3
103
51
14
34
85
Connor Thomas
L
28
5
5
4.47
31
11
86.7
94
43
10
25
59
Landon Harper
R
25
5
6
4.63
24
12
89.3
94
46
14
23
65
Joey Wentz
L
28
5
5
4.53
33
12
89.3
89
45
11
37
88
Charlie Morton
R
42
7
9
4.88
25
22
120.0
117
65
18
57
121
Ian Anderson
R
28
4
6
4.57
17
13
67.0
69
34
8
31
51
Brett Sears
R
26
8
10
4.88
21
18
101.3
100
55
16
30
87
Davis Daniel
R
29
7
9
4.88
23
18
103.3
107
56
16
35
78
Pierce Johnson
R
35
4
2
3.83
55
0
49.3
46
21
6
19
55
Blane Abeyta
R
27
4
5
4.67
30
12
79.0
81
41
11
28
65
Andrew Jenkins
L
32
3
2
3.75
42
1
48.0
45
20
4
19
50
Zach Thompson
R
32
4
4
4.82
20
12
65.3
71
35
9
25
45
Tyler Kinley
R
35
4
3
3.95
58
0
57.0
48
25
7
24
65
Joel Payamps
R
32
3
2
3.98
54
0
52.0
50
23
6
16
47
Jackson Stephens
R
32
2
3
4.19
24
3
43.0
43
20
5
13
35
Carson Ragsdale
R
28
5
7
4.88
24
18
83.0
85
45
12
38
71
Blake Burkhalter
R
25
4
5
4.93
26
14
84.0
88
46
13
31
63
Drue Hackenberg
R
24
4
7
5.17
21
21
87.0
88
50
11
47
67
Anderson Pilar
R
28
3
3
4.42
38
3
55.0
55
27
7
18
48
Amos Willingham
R
27
3
2
4.20
38
2
55.7
56
26
7
18
49
Hayden Harris
L
27
3
3
4.21
43
0
47.0
41
22
6
19
52
Joe Jiménez
R
31
2
2
4.23
41
0
38.3
34
18
5
15
44
Cory Wall
R
26
3
3
4.62
30
5
50.7
51
26
7
18
41
Luis Vargas
R
24
3
4
5.11
20
11
68.7
72
39
11
31
56
Hunter Stratton
R
29
3
2
4.25
44
0
53.0
51
25
7
19
49
Connor Seabold
R
30
3
5
5.01
26
12
79.0
85
44
11
26
63
Brian Moran
L
37
1
2
4.50
21
2
40.0
42
20
6
12
35
Austin Cox
L
29
3
3
4.82
36
7
71.0
73
38
10
28
56
Chad Kuhl
R
33
3
3
5.05
22
11
67.7
71
38
10
33
57
Rolddy Munoz
R
26
3
2
4.63
37
3
56.3
55
29
7
28
50
Jake McSteen
L
30
2
3
4.50
26
2
40.0
44
20
6
13
30
Josh Walker
L
31
2
2
4.32
37
0
41.7
41
20
5
18
40
Daysbel Hernández
R
29
3
4
4.47
44
0
44.3
38
22
5
26
47
Jesse Chavez
R
42
2
1
4.50
31
1
40.0
41
20
6
15
37
Carlos Carrasco
R
39
4
7
5.36
21
19
95.7
113
57
16
33
72
Chasen Shreve
L
35
1
2
4.74
13
2
19.0
20
10
3
7
17
Ryan Rolison
L
28
2
3
4.72
41
3
61.0
66
32
9
22
46
Ryan Bourassa
R
26
2
3
4.64
34
0
42.7
38
22
6
22
43
Jacob Wallace
R
27
3
3
4.74
34
1
43.7
41
23
6
24
43
Alexis DÃaz
R
29
3
4
4.71
49
0
49.7
40
26
5
27
49
Elison Joseph
R
25
2
3
4.97
37
0
41.7
39
23
6
24
41
LJ McDonough
R
26
3
3
5.06
34
0
42.7
43
24
5
24
36
Shay Schanaman
R
26
3
4
5.00
29
0
36.0
37
20
5
17
28
Tyler LaPorte
R
29
3
3
4.95
34
0
43.7
46
24
6
19
33
Jonathan Hughes
R
29
1
3
5.24
25
0
34.3
38
20
5
16
22
Pitchers – Advanced
Player
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BB%
K%
BABIP
ERA+
3ERA+
FIP
ERA-
WAR
Chris Sale
124.7
10.8
2.5
0.9
6.7%
29.5%
.299
134
122
3.12
75
2.9
Spencer Schwellenbach
124.7
8.8
1.7
1.1
4.6%
24.3%
.282
122
122
3.44
82
2.6
Spencer Strider
137.3
10.8
3.0
1.1
8.1%
28.8%
.295
107
106
3.54
93
2.2
Reynaldo López
100.7
8.9
3.1
1.0
8.3%
23.8%
.283
116
112
3.70
86
1.9
Lucas Braun
130.0
7.6
2.5
1.2
6.6%
20.0%
.293
97
101
4.19
103
1.5
Hurston Waldrep
130.7
8.1
3.9
1.0
9.8%
20.5%
.291
97
100
4.27
103
1.5
Bryce Elder
152.0
7.6
3.0
1.1
7.7%
19.7%
.292
95
96
4.12
105
1.5
AJ Smith-Shawver
80.7
9.8
3.6
1.1
9.2%
25.3%
.300
106
111
3.86
94
1.2
JR Ritchie
118.3
7.8
3.3
1.1
8.5%
20.4%
.287
94
99
4.39
106
1.2
Nathan Wiles
96.3
6.8
2.1
1.2
5.6%
17.8%
.299
97
98
4.21
103
1.0
Dylan Dodd
85.3
7.6
2.2
1.3
5.8%
19.9%
.296
101
103
4.11
99
0.9
José Suarez
82.3
8.5
3.1
1.1
8.0%
22.2%
.303
100
101
3.98
100
0.9
Didier Fuentes
87.0
8.5
3.0
1.2
7.8%
21.9%
.294
93
99
4.28
107
0.9
Jhancarlos Lara
76.3
10.3
5.2
0.9
12.9%
25.6%
.294
98
106
4.33
102
0.8
Ian Mejia
109.3
6.8
2.9
1.3
7.4%
17.5%
.295
90
94
4.67
111
0.8
Alek Manoah
87.3
7.5
3.6
1.1
9.3%
19.5%
.281
94
94
4.61
106
0.8
Raisel Iglesias
56.3
9.6
2.2
1.1
6.1%
26.3%
.281
118
109
3.50
85
0.8
Dylan Lee
61.7
10.4
2.6
1.3
7.1%
28.1%
.286
119
116
3.63
84
0.7
Grant Holmes
69.3
8.3
3.5
1.2
9.0%
21.3%
.294
100
98
4.35
100
0.7
Dane Dunning
100.3
7.6
3.1
1.3
7.8%
19.5%
.299
91
89
4.48
110
0.7
Connor Thomas
86.7
6.1
2.6
1.0
6.7%
15.8%
.302
93
95
4.31
107
0.6
Landon Harper
89.3
6.5
2.3
1.4
6.0%
17.1%
.290
90
94
4.55
112
0.5
Joey Wentz
89.3
8.9
3.7
1.1
9.5%
22.5%
.310
92
93
4.10
109
0.5
Charlie Morton
120.0
9.1
4.3
1.4
10.8%
22.9%
.300
85
81
4.82
118
0.5
Ian Anderson
67.0
6.9
4.2
1.1
10.3%
16.9%
.296
91
92
4.63
110
0.5
Brett Sears
101.3
7.7
2.7
1.4
7.0%
20.4%
.286
85
89
4.65
118
0.5
Davis Daniel
103.3
6.8
3.0
1.4
7.8%
17.4%
.289
85
86
4.80
117
0.4
Pierce Johnson
49.3
10.0
3.5
1.1
8.9%
25.8%
.308
108
100
3.73
93
0.4
Blane Abeyta
79.0
7.4
3.2
1.3
8.2%
19.0%
.297
89
92
4.66
112
0.4
Andrew Jenkins
48.0
9.4
3.6
0.8
9.2%
24.2%
.311
111
105
3.66
90
0.4
Zach Thompson
65.3
6.2
3.4
1.2
8.6%
15.5%
.298
86
84
4.86
116
0.3
Tyler Kinley
57.0
10.3
3.8
1.1
9.8%
26.6%
.287
105
97
3.85
95
0.3
Joel Payamps
52.0
8.1
2.8
1.0
7.3%
21.5%
.295
104
101
3.89
96
0.3
Jackson Stephens
43.0
7.3
2.7
1.0
7.1%
19.2%
.295
99
94
4.16
101
0.3
Carson Ragsdale
83.0
7.7
4.1
1.3
10.3%
19.3%
.298
85
86
4.85
117
0.3
Blake Burkhalter
84.0
6.8
3.3
1.4
8.4%
17.0%
.291
84
89
4.93
119
0.3
Drue Hackenberg
87.0
6.9
4.9
1.1
11.9%
16.9%
.292
80
85
5.16
125
0.2
Anderson Pilar
55.0
7.9
2.9
1.1
7.6%
20.2%
.298
94
95
4.38
106
0.2
Amos Willingham
55.7
7.9
2.9
1.1
7.5%
20.5%
.301
99
102
4.12
101
0.2
Hayden Harris
47.0
10.0
3.6
1.1
9.5%
26.0%
.289
99
103
4.08
101
0.2
Joe Jiménez
38.3
10.3
3.5
1.2
9.2%
27.0%
.296
98
96
3.89
102
0.1
Cory Wall
50.7
7.3
3.2
1.2
8.2%
18.6%
.291
90
93
4.64
111
0.1
Luis Vargas
68.7
7.3
4.1
1.4
10.0%
18.1%
.296
81
88
5.14
123
0.1
Hunter Stratton
53.0
8.3
3.2
1.2
8.3%
21.5%
.293
98
99
4.33
102
0.1
Connor Seabold
79.0
7.2
3.0
1.3
7.5%
18.1%
.306
83
83
4.63
120
0.1
Brian Moran
40.0
7.9
2.7
1.4
6.9%
20.2%
.305
92
83
4.56
109
0.1
Austin Cox
71.0
7.1
3.5
1.3
8.9%
17.9%
.293
86
88
4.73
116
0.1
Chad Kuhl
67.7
7.6
4.4
1.3
10.7%
18.6%
.302
82
78
5.08
122
0.1
Rolddy Munoz
56.3
8.0
4.5
1.1
11.1%
19.8%
.294
90
93
4.71
111
0.1
Jake McSteen
40.0
6.8
2.9
1.4
7.4%
17.0%
.304
92
91
4.59
108
0.0
Josh Walker
41.7
8.6
3.9
1.1
9.8%
21.9%
.305
96
94
4.24
104
0.0
Daysbel Hernández
44.3
9.5
5.3
1.0
13.2%
23.9%
.284
93
93
4.47
107
0.0
Jesse Chavez
40.0
8.3
3.4
1.4
8.7%
21.4%
.304
92
89
4.46
109
0.0
Carlos Carrasco
95.7
6.8
3.1
1.5
7.7%
16.8%
.318
77
75
5.02
130
0.0
Chasen Shreve
19.0
8.1
3.3
1.4
8.3%
20.2%
.304
88
77
4.69
114
0.0
Ryan Rolison
61.0
6.8
3.2
1.3
8.2%
17.1%
.302
88
89
4.70
114
0.0
Ryan Bourassa
42.7
9.1
4.6
1.3
11.3%
22.2%
.281
90
94
4.66
112
-0.1
Jacob Wallace
43.7
8.9
4.9
1.2
12.1%
21.7%
.292
88
89
4.77
114
-0.1
Alexis DÃaz
49.7
8.9
4.9
0.9
12.5%
22.7%
.265
88
88
4.55
113
-0.2
Elison Joseph
41.7
8.9
5.2
1.3
12.4%
21.2%
.289
84
89
5.01
120
-0.3
LJ McDonough
42.7
7.6
5.1
1.1
12.2%
18.3%
.299
82
86
4.90
122
-0.3
Shay Schanaman
36.0
7.0
4.3
1.3
10.4%
17.2%
.294
83
86
5.16
120
-0.3
Tyler LaPorte
43.7
6.8
3.9
1.2
9.8%
17.1%
.296
84
86
4.88
119
-0.3
Jonathan Hughes
34.3
5.8
4.2
1.3
10.2%
14.0%
.297
79
78
5.35
127
-0.4
Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player
BA vs. L
OBP vs. L
SLG vs. L
BA vs. R
OBP vs. R
SLG vs. R
80th WAR
20th WAR
80th ERA
20th ERA
Chris Sale
.208
.267
.271
.227
.290
.379
3.9
1.9
2.36
4.15
Spencer Schwellenbach
.248
.295
.419
.223
.258
.353
3.5
1.9
2.84
3.78
Spencer Strider
.238
.307
.402
.211
.280
.345
3.4
1.1
3.21
4.56
Reynaldo López
.234
.317
.386
.231
.280
.364
2.7
1.1
2.94
4.20
Lucas Braun
.243
.301
.407
.262
.308
.432
2.5
0.6
3.67
4.92
Hurston Waldrep
.249
.336
.408
.239
.310
.379
2.3
0.5
3.84
4.90
Bryce Elder
.255
.323
.429
.246
.303
.377
2.6
0.6
3.84
4.94
AJ Smith-Shawver
.229
.299
.369
.238
.313
.394
1.8
0.4
3.31
4.71
JR Ritchie
.248
.331
.420
.246
.311
.388
2.0
0.4
3.89
4.98
Nathan Wiles
.275
.325
.445
.255
.294
.417
1.7
0.4
3.72
4.88
Dylan Dodd
.245
.279
.367
.263
.312
.450
1.5
0.2
3.51
4.88
José Suarez
.236
.310
.371
.254
.314
.415
1.5
0.1
3.61
5.04
Didier Fuentes
.238
.309
.407
.250
.314
.413
1.6
0.1
3.71
5.24
Jhancarlos Lara
.225
.347
.359
.221
.335
.356
1.4
0.1
3.70
5.01
Ian Mejia
.268
.335
.470
.261
.315
.408
1.6
0.1
4.05
5.18
Alek Manoah
.273
.362
.459
.216
.293
.352
1.4
0.2
3.92
5.05
Raisel Iglesias
.250
.306
.410
.209
.261
.355
1.5
0.1
2.56
4.82
Dylan Lee
.217
.258
.373
.235
.294
.409
1.5
0.0
2.69
4.53
Grant Holmes
.250
.331
.367
.248
.318
.440
1.1
0.1
3.62
4.86
Dane Dunning
.271
.343
.452
.248
.307
.405
1.3
-0.1
4.01
5.29
Connor Thomas
.259
.304
.405
.274
.331
.427
1.1
0.0
4.01
5.14
Landon Harper
.268
.314
.452
.261
.304
.442
1.2
-0.1
4.03
5.23
Joey Wentz
.259
.328
.411
.246
.319
.402
1.2
-0.3
3.91
5.44
Charlie Morton
.254
.366
.460
.245
.322
.392
1.3
-0.6
4.20
5.85
Ian Anderson
.231
.313
.369
.287
.359
.449
0.9
0.0
4.10
5.22
Brett Sears
.273
.344
.471
.237
.295
.406
1.3
-0.3
4.20
5.58
Davis Daniel
.272
.340
.450
.252
.310
.436
1.1
-0.3
4.37
5.48
Pierce Johnson
.233
.313
.384
.243
.305
.393
1.0
-0.2
2.94
5.12
Blane Abeyta
.282
.356
.458
.240
.311
.409
0.9
-0.3
4.16
5.44
Andrew Jenkins
.214
.276
.300
.252
.348
.395
0.8
-0.1
2.97
4.81
Zach Thompson
.276
.362
.472
.266
.318
.424
0.7
-0.1
4.25
5.37
Tyler Kinley
.210
.307
.370
.237
.307
.386
1.0
-0.4
3.08
5.22
Joel Payamps
.247
.309
.435
.248
.305
.368
0.7
-0.2
3.28
4.97
Jackson Stephens
.275
.341
.438
.233
.293
.378
0.6
-0.1
3.62
4.90
Carson Ragsdale
.247
.341
.433
.265
.335
.431
0.9
-0.4
4.34
5.54
Blake Burkhalter
.281
.356
.456
.246
.306
.434
0.8
-0.4
4.39
5.57
Drue Hackenberg
.259
.363
.420
.253
.349
.412
0.7
-0.4
4.68
5.70
Anderson Pilar
.245
.324
.357
.261
.326
.454
0.6
-0.3
3.79
5.15
Amos Willingham
.263
.330
.411
.246
.299
.405
0.7
-0.2
3.51
4.99
Hayden Harris
.217
.309
.350
.237
.321
.407
0.6
-0.3
3.43
5.04
Joe Jiménez
.227
.320
.394
.235
.300
.395
0.5
-0.3
3.21
5.48
Cory Wall
.269
.355
.462
.243
.299
.383
0.5
-0.2
4.01
5.24
Luis Vargas
.262
.349
.469
.262
.337
.434
0.6
-0.5
4.57
5.81
Hunter Stratton
.283
.362
.467
.221
.288
.363
0.5
-0.4
3.60
5.11
Connor Seabold
.269
.347
.462
.264
.318
.417
0.6
-0.4
4.47
5.71
Brian Moran
.250
.333
.411
.269
.325
.462
0.4
-0.4
3.64
5.86
Austin Cox
.258
.320
.398
.262
.338
.455
0.6
-0.4
4.29
5.57
Chad Kuhl
.263
.365
.474
.263
.338
.416
0.5
-0.4
4.49
5.74
Rolddy Munoz
.267
.364
.465
.231
.319
.347
0.5
-0.4
4.01
5.37
Jake McSteen
.231
.273
.327
.288
.344
.505
0.4
-0.3
3.78
5.26
Josh Walker
.218
.317
.345
.264
.333
.427
0.4
-0.4
3.60
5.23
Daysbel Hernández
.230
.337
.392
.226
.342
.366
0.5
-0.5
3.72
5.48
Jesse Chavez
.257
.337
.432
.256
.309
.430
0.4
-0.4
3.66
5.82
Carlos Carrasco
.282
.349
.479
.287
.341
.474
0.5
-0.8
4.75
6.24
Chasen Shreve
.250
.323
.393
.271
.333
.458
0.2
-0.2
3.98
5.81
Ryan Rolison
.284
.324
.493
.261
.328
.422
0.3
-0.5
4.13
5.36
Ryan Bourassa
.256
.363
.449
.217
.305
.373
0.2
-0.5
4.06
5.44
Jacob Wallace
.253
.349
.453
.232
.333
.368
0.2
-0.6
4.08
5.66
Alexis DÃaz
.232
.370
.378
.212
.319
.343
0.3
-0.7
4.04
5.62
Elison Joseph
.257
.368
.392
.230
.333
.437
0.1
-0.7
4.34
5.79
LJ McDonough
.256
.365
.415
.247
.340
.393
0.0
-0.7
4.49
5.75
Shay Schanaman
.288
.390
.439
.237
.322
.434
-0.1
-0.6
4.50
5.74
Tyler LaPorte
.282
.371
.471
.244
.310
.400
0.0
-0.7
4.31
5.88
Jonathan Hughes
.286
.357
.476
.267
.356
.440
-0.1
-0.7
4.62
6.03
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.