Last week, as part of our co-written article breaking down the Minnesota Twins’ roster as the offseason began, Dan Hayes noted FanGraphs’ initial projections for 2026 had them with a surprisingly decent 82-80 record.

While that’s far from reason to celebrate, it would represent a 12-win improvement over 2025 and put the Twins on the fringes of the American League playoff picture, a scenario most fans would likely gladly sign up for after suffering through last season’s mess.

By no means should projections be taken as gospel, especially in December, but they can provide useful league-wide and narrative-free context for fans focused on a specific team who may not have the time or inclination to stay as up to speed on the other 29 clubs. It’s enlightening as a big-picture view.

In this specific case, it’s probably also worth noting that FanGraphs’ projections have generally been too high on the Twins of late. Last season, for example, FanGraphs projected the Twins to go 84-78, but they actually went 70-92, a 14-win discrepancy that was the largest in the AL.

FanGraphs’ projections have overestimated the Twins’ record in four of the past five seasons, with 2023 as the lone exception. Overall, during that five-year span, the Twins fell 32 wins short of FanGraphs’ combined projections, an average deficit of 6.4 wins per year.

YEARPROJREALDIFF

2025

84

70

-14

2024

85

82

-3

2023

83

87

4

2022

82

78

-4

2021

88

73

-15

TOTAL

422

390

-32

Should the 2021-25 totals make Twins fans less willing to buy into an 82-80 projection for 2026? Not necessarily, but if nothing else, it shows the Twins have been a difficult team to project accurately. And that’s something Twins president Derek Falvey lamented in his end-of-season news conference.

“There are external measures we look at, that you all look at,” Falvey said on Sept. 30. “Those matched (the Twins’ internal projections), for the most part. So it’s not about us evaluating how we were so different than what the public sphere felt of us.”

Falvey is certainly correct about how the “public sphere” viewed the Twins for 2025. In addition to FanGraphs projecting 84 wins, Baseball Prospectus projected 86 and BetMGM’s over/under was 83 1/2. (I personally predicted 85 wins, so the GFGF — Gleeman’s Fat Gut Feeling — wasn’t any better.)

“Every offseason, you try to evaluate your own systems and models and metrics,” Falvey said. “But you’re also trying to get a human feel, too. How do people feel about this club? There was a belief going into the season that we had a real chance to compete within this division. That matches with, so to speak, the projections.”

But now that FanGraphs projects 82-80? Optimistic fans probably think it sounds about right. Pessimistic fans probably think it’s way off. That’s just human nature. And with trade speculation swirling around pitchers Joe Ryan, Pablo López and other core players, early projections can change dramatically.

Meet the new guys

As long as we’re on the subject of FanGraphs’ early projections, let’s look at the three players the Twins have added since the offseason started: catcher Alex Jackson, utility man Ryan Kreidler and reliever Eric Orze.

Jackson is a 29-year-old career .153 hitter in 160 big-league games, yet he’s all but locked in as the backup catcher after the Twins sent Triple-A utility man Payton Eeles to the Baltimore Orioles for the right to pay him around $1.8 million via arbitration in 2026.

Jackson’s defense is the big draw, but he’s also shown good Triple-A power and popped five homers in 91 at-bats for the Orioles last season. FanGraphs projects him to hit .208 with a .649 OPS, which clears the very low bar for a backup catcher. Christian Vázquez hit .215 with a .577 OPS in his three seasons with the Twins.

Alex Jackson just left the ballpark 😳 pic.twitter.com/3lmOhF9Ywp

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 20, 2025

Kreidler has been even worse than Jackson in the majors, hitting .138 in 89 games for the Detroit Tigers, and his Triple-A numbers are underwhelming as well. Claimed off waivers, the 28-year-old has the defensive versatility to find a bench niche if he can produce even a little bit offensively.

FanGraphs is skeptical, projecting Kreidler to hit .194 with a .588 OPS that’s punchless even for a glove-driven gig. By comparison, Ryan Fitzgerald, the other utility man option on the 40-man roster, is projected to hit .219 with a .650 OPS. Eeles, now in Baltimore, is projected to hit .233 with a .649 OPS.

Orze, a 28-year-old right-hander acquired in a small trade with the Tampa Bay Rays, currently projects as the Twins’ fourth-best reliever, behind Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa. FanGraphs projects Orze to have a 4.11 ERA in 63 innings, which would be decent for a middle reliever.

Ideally, the Twins would be looking to add multiple veteran relievers to fill late-inning roles, pushing Orze and the trio of holdovers into less prominent spots for which they’re better suited. In the meantime, Orze at least slightly raises the bullpen floor by adding a much-needed MLB-caliber arm.

First-base options

Arbitration-eligible players getting non-tendered in November creates a second wave of free agents each offseason. Trevor Larnach avoided being part of this year’s group when the Twins somewhat surprisingly chose to retain him, but the non-tenders could still factor into their plans.

I previously wrote about inexpensive free agents the Twins could/should target this offseason to address their many roster weaknesses, highlighting 10 hitters and 12 pitchers. Since then, the free-agent pool has expanded to include 66 new players who were non-tendered at the Nov. 21 deadline.

Many of them were cut loose for obvious reasons and wouldn’t be of much use to the Twins regardless of the cost. However, a few of the non-tendered players would definitely be useful to the Twins, including one potential fit similar to the initial bargain-bin hitters and pitchers I covered last month.

Welcome to Fenway Park, Nathaniel Lowe

His first HR with the @RedSox is a GAME-TYING shot in the 9th! pic.twitter.com/5g7ApvuWYA

— MLB (@MLB) August 20, 2025

First baseman Nathaniel Lowe had an ugly first half with the Washington Nationals, but produced like his usual self after joining the Boston Red Sox in August, hitting .280/.370/.420 with a 121 OPS+ in 34 games. His expected $13.5 million salary via arbitration understandably got him non-tendered.

But at a lower price tag, the 30-year-old Lowe could upgrade a Twins lineup that currently has Kody Clemens atop the first-base depth chart. Lowe was a career .272/.356/.433 hitter with a 121 OPS+ before the poor 2025, winning a Silver Slugger in 2022 and a Gold Glove in 2023. He’s a good lefty bat.

Lowe joins Ryan O’Hearn, Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Luis Arraez and Miguel Andujar as mid-level free-agent first basemen. Clemens had more nice moments last season than his 96 OPS+ showed, and is worth keeping as a minimum-salaried backup, but cheap upgrades are plentiful.