We’ve officially reached the month of December, the busiest month every offseason in terms of free agency signings and high-profile trades. So far, there’s been just one major free agency signing, Dylan Cease to the Blue Jays for 7 years and $210 million, and a cluster of other notable ones, such as Josh Naylor back to the Mariners and Ryan Helsley to the Orioles, but overall, the majority of the best free agent talents are still available for anyone to grab. Like most other clubs, the Nationals have not yet struck on the hot stove, sticking so far to minor league deals, such as RHP Tyler Baum most recently.
Pretty soon, we will have a better understanding of what kind of market it’s going to be this offseason, as early December and the Winter Meetings, which start on December 7th, are often when the offseason really kicks off. Will it be a fast-moving market, where teams are willing to pony up money to grab the top players on their wishlists, and often players will get somewhat overpaid?
Or will it be a long, drawn-out offseason, which can be very frustrating for fans and players alike as teams are unwilling to meet players’ contract demands, and a stalemate ensues? Most importantly for the Nationals, which scenario benefits the most this offseason, as they will look to add talent to the big league roster, but not at the risk of future financial flexibility.
While oftentimes the pace of the market won’t affect the low spending clubs much, as they don’t face much competition for the players they sign anyway, what can happen is that a slow-moving market allows them the opportunity to pounce on a higher-profile player who isn’t getting the contract they are looking for. Take, for example, Kris Bryant signing with the Rockies for 7 years and $182 million in March of 2022, after a work stoppage that went all the way until mid-March and left players desperate to reach deals and get ready for the season.
Another example is Carlos Correa landing with the Twins in March 2022 for 3 years, $105 million, and again in January 2023 after opting out, but having contracts with the Mets and Giants fall through due to failed physicals. Extenuating circumstances can often cause prime opportunities for smaller market clubs to make their moves in free agency, and with a potential slow market as a lockout next offseason looms, the Nationals have a chance to shock the baseball world and make some higher-profile signings than they have in the past few years.
So if the market is moving at a crawl, who could the Nationals potentially target, and when would these signings happen? The names to keep the closest eye on would be tier 2 and 3 free agents who will need to wait for the superstars, such as Kyle Tucker, to find their homes before their market truly develops. Examples of these kinds of players are Ryan O’Hearn, Ha-Seong Kim, and Eugenio Suarez on the hitting side, and Michael King, Lucas Giolito, and Zach Eflin on the pitching side. All of these players will be waiting for the top players on the market to find their homes, but if those players are taking until January or longer to sign a deal, it could lead to the others striking deals earlier in order to prevent waiting too long and not getting their desired contract.
If I were Paul Toboni, my ideal target in a scenario such as this would be Michael King, one of the top right-handed pitchers on the free agent market. While in all likeihood King is going to find a home with a contender of a hefty contract this offseason (Fangraphs projects a 4-year, $88 million deal for him), there is also a plausible scenario where a market fails to materialize for him and a sneaky club such as the Nats is able to snag him on a short term, high AAV contract that would allow him to retest the market next offseason.
If we make it through December and King remains unsigned with little movement in his market, the Nats could make it interesting with a 2-year, $26 million AAV contract with an opt out after year 1, giving the Nats a frontline starter that they can ride for half a season and then either flip at the deadline for prospects, or hold onto if they are surprisingly contending.
From the perspective of a baseball fan, a slow-moving free agency market is no fun, as it is drawn out and lacks the chaos that makes the average winter memorable. From the perspective of Nats fans, however, a slow-moving free agency market could be exactly what the ballclub needs in order to make some surprise signings they otherwise would not be able to. Nothing is guaranteed, but the longer it takes for the top free agent dominoes to fall, the higher the likelihood of one of the bigger dominoes falling in the Nats’ favor.