It’s not really a matter of if the Chicago Cubs will make a splash in free agency — it’s a matter of who.

The Cubs have made at least a couple of headline-grabbing moves in each of the past four or five offseasons. And while they may not spend at the very top of the market like the Dodgers or Mets — and who can blame Cubs fans for wanting them to? — Chicago isn’t going to sit on its hands all winter after failing to win the NL Central last season.

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How much money President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer has at his disposal remains to be seen. But he has already hinted that his top priorities lie on the pitching side rather than the lineup.

On paper, the Cubs’ rotation is filled out: Justin Steele returns from injury, Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer, and they join Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd to form a tentative starting five.

But that group isn’t enough — and Chicago isn’t satisfied.

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Cubs fans wanted the team to be involved in the Dylan Cease sweepstakes, but the right-hander wasted no time signing a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays just before Thanksgiving. It was a frustrating miss for a club looking to upgrade its front end.

Still, there are strong fits remaining on the market.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently released a “perfect match” free-agent pairing for every club, and for the Chicago Cubs, he pointed to right-hander Michael King.

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“Even with the return of Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer, the Cubs are in the market for a frontline starter this offseason. King is one of the most talented arms available, and after missing a chunk of 2025 with a thoracic nerve injury and a knee issue, he could sign for fewer years than some of the other top starting pitchers,” wrote Feinsand.

King appeared in only 15 starts last season due to injuries, and he’s been a full-time starting pitcher for just two years. But that limited track record — paired with his recent injury history — could actually make him the most cost-effective frontline option on the market. Less commitment, less risk, and potentially huge upside. That’s exactly the kind of profile the Cubs should be shopping for.

Across the past two seasons in San Diego, King went 18–12 with a 3.10 ERA and 277 strikeouts over 247 innings. When fully healthy in 2024, his underlying numbers were elite.

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King leans heavily on his slider, sweeper, and changeup — throwing offspeed pitches 46% of the time and generating consistent soft contact from them. In 2024, he ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. You don’t often find that level of contact suppression paired with a strong strikeout rate.

He’s also right-handed, which matters for roster balance. Steele, Imanaga, and Boyd are all lefties, and the Cubs would prefer a more traditional rotation mix rather than four southpaws.

Spotrac projects King’s market value at four years, $92 million — roughly $23 million per season. It’s a significant investment, but nowhere near what the top arms on the market will command. And it certainly pales in comparison to the $210 million Toronto just gave Cease.

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Honestly? I really like the fit. It might even be the “perfect match” Feinsand describes.

King fills a clear need for the Cubs, brings top-of-the-rotation upside, and doesn’t require a contract so massive that it prevents Chicago from making another impact move to bolster the lineup.

One move to the rotation won’t satisfy Cubs fans, but adding Michael King while keeping financial freedom to bring in a bat just might.