There’s a central question for this Kansas City Royals offseason, and it’s the same question they faced last year: Will the big trade happen?

Kansas City has had a surplus of starting pitchers and not enough offense in each of the last two years. Trading Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for Jonathan India last November has thus far backfired. But that may not stop them from going back to the well.

First-time All-Star Kris Bubic has been the pitcher most frequently discussed in trade rumors, as he has just one year left on his rookie deal and put up the best ERA on the Royals’ staff among pitchers who topped 100 innings. But what are the odds the 28-year-old actually gets dealt?

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ESPN insiders forecast Bubic’s trade market

On Tuesday, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan assigned Bubic a 30% chance of getting traded, noting that his market could be slightly tamped down after he missed the last two months of the season with a rotator cuff strain.

“The former first-round pick finally broke out last year, earning an All-Star bid with a sub-3.00 ERA and the peripherals to match,” wrote McDaniel and Passan. “Then, he suffered a shoulder injury and didn’t pitch in August or September.

“Any deal for Bubic is a bet on his health, and though Kansas City might have to tap into its rotation to get an outfield bat, he is perhaps the best combination of performance and affordability, questions notwithstanding.”

As for where Bubic could be headed, Passan and McDaniel identified the New York Mets, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and Los Angeles Angels as prospective landing spots for the All-Star.

Once a first-round pick for the Royals back in 2018, Bubic took a long time to break out, and moving on from him right after said breakout occurred could be a painful bit of business for Kansas City. But a good front office is also willing to do the painful thing on occasion — which would have to mean the Royals were getting a slam-dunk starter in their outfielder in the deal.