Ah, the risk and rewards and crazy retail price of Major League Baseball free agency begins with the Baltimore Orioles signing a closer and making noise about “being in on” more pitching. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss Ryan Helsley and the price of heroes at the Winter Meetings for a last place team with a lot of prospects in question.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Orioles’ offseason moves, including the acquisition of Ryan Helsley as closer on a two-year, $28 million deal with an opt-out after 2026. They debated the risks and potential of Helsley, noting his poor performance with the Mets in August but his strong finish. They also discussed the need for additional high-leverage relievers and the potential signing of a top starting pitcher, with Dylan Cease mentioned as a target. The conversation touched on fan frustration, ticket pricing, and the need for the team to win to regain fan trust and support.
[ ] @Nestor Aparicio – Assess the Orioles’ ticket pricing and promotional strategies and provide recommendations to improve the fan experience.
[ ] Analyze the Orioles’ bullpen options and determine if they need to add another high-leverage reliever.
[ ] Evaluate the Orioles’ rotation options and identify potential top-of-the-rotation targets the team should pursue.
Orioles Offseason Plans and Community Engagement
Nestor Aparicio discusses the upcoming Maryland crab cake tour, starting next Wednesday, with multiple stops across the state.
Nestor mentions various community events and giveaways, including Raven scratch offs and candy cane scratch offs.
Nestor introduces Luke Jones to discuss relief pitching and the Orioles’ offseason plans.
Nestor and Luke discuss the Orioles’ recent trades, including the acquisition of Taylor Ward and the signing of Ryan Helsley as the team’s closer.
Ryan Helsley’s Signing and Performance Analysis
Luke Jones explains the details of Ryan Helsley’s two-year, $28 million deal with the Orioles, including an opt-out clause after 2026.
Nestor and Luke discuss the price tags of closers, noting that Helsley’s deal is more reasonable compared to recent high-priced closers.
Luke provides a detailed analysis of Helsley’s performance with the New York Mets, highlighting a poor month in August and his recovery in September.
Nestor and Luke debate the risks and potential upside of Helsley, comparing him to other relievers like Craig Kimbrel.
Orioles Bullpen and Relief Pitching Needs
Nestor and Luke discuss the current state of the Orioles’ bullpen, including the return of Andrew Kittredge and the potential need for additional high-leverage relievers.
Luke suggests the Orioles should consider signing another setup man to complement Helsley and Kittredge.
Nestor and Luke discuss the potential of young relievers like Keegan Akin and Cade Stroud, and the need for them to perform well in spring training.
Nestor expresses frustration with the Orioles’ bullpen depth and the lack of a clear plan for the ninth inning.
Rotation and Starting Pitching Needs
Nestor and Luke shift the conversation to the Orioles’ starting rotation, noting the absence of Grayson Rodriguez and the need for a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Luke discusses the challenges of acquiring a top starting pitcher, mentioning the Orioles’ past interest in players like Dylan Cease.
Nestor and Luke debate the importance of spending money on starting pitching, with Nestor expressing frustration over the Orioles’ reluctance to spend significant funds.
Luke emphasizes the need for the Orioles to make impactful moves in the rotation to improve their chances of winning.
Fan Frustration and Team Expectations
Nestor and Luke discuss the frustration among Orioles fans, particularly those who have supported the team through difficult times.
Nestor expresses his own frustration with the team’s ownership and management, citing past incidents and the lack of transparency.
Luke acknowledges the fans’ disappointment, noting the team’s failure to deliver on promises and the impact of recent changes in ticket pricing and membership policies.
Nestor and Luke agree that the Orioles need to win on the field to regain the trust and support of their fans.
Future Plans and Team Improvement
Nestor and Luke discuss the importance of making good moves in the offseason to improve the team’s chances of success in 2024.
Luke emphasizes the need for the Orioles to spend money wisely and make impactful signings to address their pitching needs.
Nestor and Luke discuss the potential for the team to improve with the return of healthy players and the development of young talent.
Nestor expresses hope that the Orioles will take steps to address fan concerns and improve the overall experience at Camden Yards.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles closer, Ryan Helsley, Winter Meetings, pitching needs, Grayson Rodriguez, Taylor Ward, bullpen depth, Felix Batista, starting rotation, Dylan Cease, Zach Eflin, fan expectations, ticket pricing, Birdland membership, offseason moves.
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W n s t am 1570 Taos at Baltimore. We are, Baltimore positive, positively. Get a little baseball in here if you’re watching out on the Zoom and out on the YouTube and out on our W n s TV channel at Baltimore, positive, you’ll see I’m wearing my orange curio gear here. Big thanks to curio for presenting our 27th anniversary. And I am bringing all of my tastiness treats back for the holidays, since so many of them are dessert oriented. Anyway, who doesn’t want some chocolate chip cookies from Woodley? That’s what I would say. I’m going to be giving away Raven scratch offs. It’s been a lucky batch. The Maryland crab cake tour is back out on the road, beginning next Wednesday, lots and lots of stops, three in a row. Next week, two in a row. The following week, you can find it all out at Baltimore positive as well as our friends at GBMC keep me alive and well, take care of my health your health as well. We’ll continue to discuss men’s health through the holidays for everybody getting together and have a turkey and ham and eggnog, amongst other things. And I’ll also have some candy cane scratch offs to give away when we kick things off. Fadeleys on the 18th, excuse me, fadeleys on the 11th. And then on the 12th, we’ll be at deepest squalies. And then next Friday, we’re going to be at honeys in halethorpe. I hope get the day trade, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then the following week, we’re going to be at Costas on the 18th, and we’re going to be at that’s what, yeah, I’m getting dates all met. Thursday, I’ll be at Costas doing rock and roll with Gina shock, and then Friday. Have added this bonus. Dan Rodricks and I are going to get together at Gertrude, at the BMA with my cousin by marriage. John shields always great to have a real chef in the family to talk about the Feast of the Seven Fishes, and I’ll probably drag Nancy Longo over there to talk some cooking or something like that. Luke Jones is getting dragged in here right now to talk about relief pitching and the off season and expectations realities. The Orioles cease to be in the market for Dylan cease as well. So other teams spend a lot of money. How are you well, happy we’re up on the winter meetings, aren’t we? It’s crazy, right?
Luke Jones 02:11
We are. We’re to the month of December, and what we’re a little over two months away from pitchers and catchers reporting. I mean, it’ll be here before, you know, and everyone’s focused on football, and understandably so. But, you know, it’s nice to see activity, right? I mean, I can’t, as I’ve said to you, I can’t say that I sit here and loved the Grayson Rodriguez trade, but Taylor Ward’s going to help their lineup. You know, I don’t know if he’s going to hit 3540 home runs, necessarily, like he did last
Nestor Aparicio 02:42
do they need him to do that? What if he gets 23 home runs and is some somewhat of a three quarter platoon player?
Luke Jones 02:52
Tell me what Grayson Rodriguez did then? Anyway. Oh, it is right. And you know, hey, we’re going to continue to talk about that. We’re Grayson Rodriguez gonna have four years with the angels, unless he has a career ending arm injury or something like that, which maybe that’s, well, I tell
Nestor Aparicio 03:06
you what, he looked pissed off for greatness when he did his little interview, right? I mean, he looked
Luke Jones 03:10
so so they, you know, they make that move. Obviously, they got kittridge back earlier this month. I signed off on that, you know, to me, you bring him back for cash after you rented him to the Cubs for a couple months. That’s good business. And then over the weekend, they got their closer and they signed Ryan Helsley of the St Louis Cardinals for years and a rental of the New York Mets. And we’ll get into that, because that is a rental that did not go well. Every Mets fam was like, ah, yeah, right, yeah. But I will say, if you go back to July 30 of last year, you’re talking about Ryan hesley being one of the very best closers in baseball over the previous three and a half years. So it’s a two year $28 million deal. It includes an opt out for post 2026 if he has a great year, he’s probably going to go probably going to go to market again.
Nestor Aparicio 04:04
Price tags changed on closers a little bit right, like the BJ Ryans of the world being, like, outrageous four or five year deals. It’s a lot of money. Things have tamed down a little bit on that. A little I
Luke Jones 04:17
mean, it all depends. I mean, I mean, Josh Hader still got a five year deal, right? I mean, recently, so I think, you know, what’s Edwin Diaz going to get? What’s, you know, some of the other names that are out there. Devin Williams is an interesting one, because he’s someone else who did not have a great year in 2025 but has a body of work that’s really impressive. I like this signing I do. And that’s not to say that there isn’t some risk here. But I think if you go back and look at what happened to Helsley with the Mets, he basically had one disaster month, right? If you go to August 9 through September 10. So he had been a met for what? At that point, a week and a. Half. And you know, he was able to recover over the final three weeks of September to pitch pretty well. You know, his last six appearances were scoreless, but over those over that month, which was 13 appearances, 10 innings, 20 hits, 16 earned runs, four home runs allowed, and he walked seven and struck out 11. I mean, he had a absolute dumpster fire of a month. Now, if you go back and look for the context of that, there were quotes from him and the Mets coaching staff talking about there being a an issue with him tipping pitches his velocity. If you look at his average velocity last year compared to the previous years, it’s 99 miles per hour. I mean, this guy throws really hard. He’s got a great slider. He’s basically a fastball slider pitcher. He’ll mix in a curve ball a little bit here and there, but his slider is his best pitch, and he throws 99 so if you’re Mike Elias and you’re the Orioles and you’re not based on what we know about this organization to this point, and until we see different, we’re going to continue to work under the assumption you’re not really enamored with giving long term contracts to anyone, let alone a late ending reliever, which, as we know, relievers are stocks, high risk kind of stocks, year to That’s what
Nestor Aparicio 06:19
I’m saying. I mean, you got a guy that was a really good thought to be a top class guy, yeah,
Luke Jones 06:25
until having a really terrible month, you know, from the second week
Nestor Aparicio 06:30
of August, and he cost himself a lot of money, and probably two years on a deal, right? Well, and that’s but
Luke Jones 06:34
that’s why he looks at that and says, Okay, two years 28 and we’re gonna have to see what the year one breakdown is and all that. But his thought is, if I have a great year for the Orioles, I can opt out and hit the market next year, and I’ll be 32 as opposed to 31 you know, I the first comment I got from someone on this and look, it was a fair question. So I don’t want to, you know, I’m not outing this reader or listener as someone that’s just being a hater. But they asked, you know, you know, what? How am I supposed to think this isn’t like Craig Kimbrel? I said I don’t think it is. He’s five years younger, as we talked about two years ago. At this time, Craig Kimbrel had been on a roller coaster for about the better part of five or six seasons. At that point in time, through three or four franchises where you could see him be really good for stretches, and then horrible and then really good.
Nestor Aparicio 07:20
Well, you get by on reputation. Russell Wilson was doing that, right? I mean, you know, like, at some point, Aaron Rodgers might be doing that this week, sure.
Luke Jones 07:28
So, so I look at this deal and I say, look, I think they’re the upside is evident here. This was not someone who necessarily lost his stuff. Now, I think if you look at some of the, you know, some of the stats in terms of, like, movement, his fastball is a little bit straighter. Didn’t have quite as much movement this past year. That is a red flag. But I don’t It’s not like this gigantic flashing this guy’s washed up kind of red flag. I think it can be an adjustment or two made clearly he had, you know, the thought was, he very much had an issue with tipping pitches. And he did finish the last two and a half, three weeks of the season better. His last six appearances were scoreless. The Mets were also, collectively a dumpster fire down the stretch, right?
Nestor Aparicio 08:08
So unlike anything we’ve seen in a long time, really terrible, right?
Luke Jones 08:13
Yeah. I mean, we talked about the struggles the Orioles had two years ago in the second half and but they still made the playoffs. And it’s not as though they were 20 games under 500 and and horrible. They just were very middle of the road, right. And then obviously, you know, talking second half of 24 just to be clear for anyone listening. So I think there is more than enough to have optimism that he’s going to bounce back and be really good. I mean, this guy led the majors and saves in 2024 go back and look at his 2022 season. I mean, he had a three, three and a half year run of being an elite closer. He had a really bad run with the New York Mets. Does that mean that this is a risk free deal? No, of course not. There is some risk involved here. That said, even if he doesn’t bounce back, and even if he’s a lesser version of himself, and I’m not talking that he’d be, you know, the the version of the Mets that had a 14 era over a month, let’s say he settles into he’s good, but he’s not elite. Two years, 28 million. And I know that’s a different animal for the Orioles, as opposed to the Dodgers, financially speaking, two years 28 isn’t a deal that’s going to cripple you
Nestor Aparicio 09:24
long, but it’s also, but it’s a little bit of a peace of mind that you got a guy that’s done it before that in April of this year is not the pennant race with the Mets last year. So to me to think, all right, you settled something down, even if he looks awful in spring training or whatever. And I know the perception and reality is, we see perception. They see reality. I mean, they’ve they’ve got cameras and speed guns and doctors and pokers and prodders. They got all of that that they can figure things out. Out sports science is what they call it, right? I think there’s a peace of mind that all right, between him and Kittredge, we got some pieces we didn’t have and you mentioned, like, how much money he got, or and hater, local guy, Batista, you know, the like, what’s happened to his earning potential, for what it looked like, or for what Zach Britton went through here for a minute, for what that role looks like, and how hard that is to do, to be the Cardinals closer for four years every minute of every day and show up in a pennant race circumstance in a real baseball town where there’s 40,000 people the ballpark every night, like he’s been through all that, and he chose to come to Baltimore, and to my way of thinking, if he goes to New York and has a very spectacular ending, which, because his career has been very good, and they get bounced in the playoffs after 48 hours, like A lot of teams doing whatever he might be at four years,
Luke Jones 11:04
million dollar guy, right? To me, he probably would have been a four year contract guy. I mean, like, literally, even at 31 even at that age, yeah. I mean four, I don’t think hate or two. That was two, what? Or was that three winters ago? Haters been with the Astros two years now, so he’s well, if you
Nestor Aparicio 11:19
believe in Him, and the oils fell into something good here, so that, I
Luke Jones 11:23
think, yeah, there’s a little bit of risk. Because, yes, he had a horrible, horrible run with the Mets. There’s no doubt about that. I’m not, I’m not trying to ignore that, but it’s not because his arm fell off, but, but because of, you know, the fact that he his velocity was still high nine, you know, I think his average velocity with the Cardinals and 24 I want to say, and obviously stat cast, there are different tracking so, like, the numbers aren’t perfect, but I want to say it was 99.6 with the Cardinals and 24 and it was 99.3 last year, right? I mean, you’re not talking about like, it’s not like it went from 99 and he only threw 96 last year, kind of like what we were talking about with Batista coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, obviously, before the shoulder. So you know is there, is there risk? Yeah, but there’s risk. Signing anybody, literally any pitcher you sign that there’s going to be some risk. I think the risk is pretty minimal here, if I’m being honest, and look, if he has a great year, you can extend him, or try to assuming he opts out, right? I mean, if he has a great year and he ops out, you can extend him, or at the very least, you can give him the qualifying offer, which he might take, because that would be, I what this year, it was 2020, point, you know, just under 21 something like that. I might be a little off on that, because that, because typically the Orioles aren’t in that space. So at least anyone’s going to take it anyway. But you he could do that, or if he leaves after a year, you get a draft pick, then right? So I think, yeah, there’s some risk here. And look, I’m not, I’m Cognizant they have to sign somebody Exactly. And that’s the thing, if you want the, if you want the cleanest possible closer to sign, which I guess would be Edwin Diaz, although Edwin Diaz, remember, tore up his knee in the World Baseball Classic a couple years ago, right? I mean, but then you’re talking about having to give a five year deal, right? I mean, that that’s what you’re talking about there. So to me, this is a I like this so much better than Kim Kimbrell two years ago. I mean, Captain Obvious, but even at the time, remember, I was skeptical of that when they signed him, not after the fact, but I like this way more. Is there some risk? Sure. Do I think it’s reckless risk? No, no. I think this is much more in the measured I think you’re betting on that month, as awful as it was, being an aberration, and maybe he was tipping his pitches, or maybe there’s a mechanical tweak that now will help him get a little more run on his fastball, get him back to where he was the previous three seasons. And they think that he can be a legit shutdown kind of closer for them in the ninth inning, because they know they’re going to need that, right? I mean, Felix Batista, even in a best case scenario, is out till August, and I don’t know if he’s ever going to pitch. If he does pitch, is he ever going to be anything close to the guy that he was? I mean, rotator cuff, labrum on top of elbow. So Batista, right now, I think of him even less. And as far as trying to project anything, I think of him so much less than I did even Bradish last year, right? Coming back from Tommy John surgery, you can’t even count on him. He’s on the roster like they signed him and good. Don’t just get rid of him.
Nestor Aparicio 14:35
It’s hard talking about bullpens in December, I think, right? And saying who’s going to be here, who’s going to be where? And they’ve depleted their starting depth right away, with Rodriguez being, like, completely out of the picture, which tells you just how they felt about him. I mean, the more I think about it, yeah, to your point. I mean, every time I say something, you get flipping. Let me know when this stats come out. And I’m thinking, like. Every fan feels that way, and, and, and when we’re done talking about pitching, I do want to talk about whatever it is they’re selling this month that needs to smell different than what the Angelos family sold here for 50 years.
Luke Jones 15:14
Yeah, so, but you look at the state of the bullpen now, you’ve got Helsley for the ninth inning. You have kittridge in, I don’t know if straight eight thinning, because I still, I still would like to see them sign another high leverage guy that that’s not a closer, obviously, but let’s say, you know, think about, I mean, Sir Anthony Dominguez, last year, made 8 million. I think it was off the top of my head. I’d like to see another edition of that ilk, you know, someone that’s going to be like you signed a one year, 8.51 year, $9 million
Nestor Aparicio 15:47
those guys always tend to be a box of chocolates. They can be,
Luke Jones 15:51
but I but I still think they need an arm like that to profile in with Helsley, with Kittredge, you know, and the rest we’re going to see. I mean, Keegan egg. You’d like to
Nestor Aparicio 16:00
think that they would have something at Norfolk that they would think, well, that’s 8 million we can save somewhere, like they’re trying to do with Mount castle or mayo or whatever. I like, quite frankly, what they’re doing with the outfielder that they bring in and give away their number one pitching prospect, because they just don’t believe in them anymore to get an outfielder for a couple months. Like, literally, right? Yeah.
Luke Jones 16:21
I just think when you look at the sheer volume of bullpen arms they traded last summer, we, I mean, we know it. I mean, we kind of forget about Brian Baker, because that was a few weeks before the trade. But they traded Baker, they traded soda, they traded Dominguez, you know, they traded Kittredge. I mean, they, they traded half their bullpen,
Nestor Aparicio 16:38
and all of that is under the promise of, we’ll spend money next year and get some something else.
Luke Jones 16:43
They traded all those guys from their bullpen, and then Felix Batista has shoulder surgery. So that’s where I and I look you made a very cogent point there, in terms of, like, the, you know, going and signing a setup man, it can be volatile, but I think just in terms of the sheer volume that they need for their pen, I feel like they need another guy like that, at least one more guy like that. Now maybe that’s a lefty, because right now, you look at the makeup of their bullpen, okay, you can sell me on Keegan akin you can sell me on him being a sixth and seventh inning guy for you, right? I mean, he’s not, he’s not a bad reliever. He’s not, he’s not great. He’s not someone I want pitching the ninth inning, if, if Helsley is is unavailable because he’s pitched three of the previous four games. But you can sell me on him pitching in the seventh inning, but they need that’s why, to me, they need another guy. And look, it might be a trade, or, you know, who knows what it could be, but I feel like they need another guy that I’d like Kittredge to be my seventh inning guy, if we’re going to do this in a way where, and it rarely works out this way, because you rarely have your entire bullpen available for every single game, but if all hands are on deck, I’d much rather Andrew Kittredge be my seventh inning guy. And you know, we’ll see where yen your canoe is. I mean, canoes got to have a good spring. I mean, that’s a bad season he just had, but he’s still a good arm. You know, I’m not ready to give up on him in the way, way that you talk, it’s a box of chocolates. You might get the version of your canoe that is closer to being the all star that he was to see two going on three years ago now, rather than what he was last year. But you don’t know that. So, you know, you have Aiken, you have Cano. You know, they brought back Rico, Garcia, who, you know, had his moment, certainly when they acquired him last, you know, when they he was in the picture. You know, they the one young guy out of all the young guys They auditioned that I think pitched. Well, now I’m not ready to just hand them the eighth inning. Let’s be very clear. But I think has, I would pencil him in, in pencil for my bullpen right now. I thought Cade Stroud pitch, well, you know, but is he ready to be an eighth inning guy for me? No, like, I’d like him to be, like, one of the last two guys in my bullpen right now. So for that to be the case, you kind of look at the bullpen right now, like, I’m using fan graphs. They do a great depth chart, right? They, they kind of size everything up for you, like, if the season began today, you’d have Helsley and Kittredge, you have Keegan Aiken, you have cage Stroud Dietrich ends pitched well for them, right? I mean, they, you know that again, not necessarily a guy want pitch in the eighth inning. For me,
Nestor Aparicio 19:16
well, so many. I mean, these guys have to go down the Sarasota and win jobs. They’re gonna have to win, no question. But that’s, but that’s why josely Does it, and that’s my point. Yeah. My point is, all right, we got a ninth inning guy. He’s gonna be our guy in April and May, until he’s not. We’re giving him this money. We believe in him.
Luke Jones 19:34
You need good Yeah, yeah. And that’s, remember, last week, you know, we were talking about this, and I was I said to you, just give me a move where I can say, check I sign off on that. I’m good with that. I’m good that I feel that way about. I can’t sit here with 100% conviction and say it’s definitely going to work out. Because any pitcher, any pitcher, there’s some of that at work, right? I mean, look at the look at the Diamondbacks. They signed Corbin burns and the Orioles do. Didn’t, and now they’re looking at, they missed him for half the season last year, and he’s probably not
Nestor Aparicio 20:05
going to pitch. Well, that’s where we are with Dylan. Cease, right? Like See, seeing him go in the division say, you know, the critics come out and say, didn’t want him, you know, didn’t, didn’t make a difference to say to, you know, whatever. And then I’m thinking to myself that then the pencil is name him with the other four guys. They got there, barias and Ian. And you’re like, oh, okay, you know we got it. We’re going with Trevor Rogers and Kate Kyle Bradish. Okay, fair enough. I mean, and what else. And this brings you to your next point, that we can check off on the bullpen and check off on Helsley, and you’ve got more on him, bring it. But then it’s okay, what’s next?
Luke Jones 20:45
And the what’s next has to be the rotation, right? I mean, especially not that I was penciling in Grayson Rodriguez, but he was at least on the shelf, like, if you’re asking me to fill out my starting five, he was over on the margin, not in their mind, clearly, right, right? No, but, but, I’m just saying, Before that happens, if they had any
Nestor Aparicio 21:03
plan for him at all, they wouldn’t have made that move, like, right? Like, like, literally, because of where his ceiling is. I mean, this is where journalism comes in, and we miss Dan Connolly sniffing around and Dave shining and Ken Rosenthal and Peter schmuck and me and, you know, because they’re also just so secretive. I mean, some, some didn’t rub right there. And even if he wins 14 games this year and smells the way Stowers did before Rogers did, well then we’re gonna judge it.
Luke Jones 21:35
We’re gonna then it was a bad move, if that happens. But I’ll go back to what my first blush reaction to that was, is they don’t have any remotely high degree of confidence that he’s gonna be able to stay healthy. They whether it’s something mechanically, whether it’s something physically, whether it’s something that, you know, something in his makeup that they don’t love. And you know, and I’m not suggesting he’s not a hard worker, but does he work? Do they not like the way he works hard, right? You know, I don’t know. It’s a
Nestor Aparicio 22:05
hard worker, and they could still must not get along. And he could say, you guys screwed me up. And maybe he feels that way, and maybe they just had to come to Jesus and said, Look, let me go somewhere else. You know, you don’t like me. I don’t like you. Let’s go. And that’s but that can happen too, that can, it absolutely
Luke Jones 22:21
can, but that’s the part that I reject, because I would say you need to do better on the return then, because this is not someone that, this isn’t someone who pitched horribly for three and a half years, and then you’re just, you know, someone’s trying to reclamate. Yes, he was hurt. He’s a valuable asset for the order, but there’s still a ton of right side, right exactly, and that’s where I kind of said going, the
Nestor Aparicio 22:39
most valuable asset you can have, like, that’s the part that is way more valuable than Kobe mayo, or, I don’t want to say Jackson holiday, or rutchman’s potential, or whatever he was in that space. Yeah, he was like, you know, unless you think he’s broken, why would you deal?
Luke Jones 22:57
And that’s why i i continue to go back to, like, the point that I made to you, where, if someone had told you, if someone had told us, a year ago, the Orioles would have a trade offer on the table of Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward, we would have laughed in their face. And a year later, they did it. So, yeah, I want to go back to a you know, we were talking about some of the risk involved here. You mentioned Dylan cease. You know, Dylan cease? I mean, in a vacuum, would I like to have done that specific deal for that specific pitcher? No, but I’ll go back to the quote from, it’s probably close to a decade ago Andrew Friedman, and I think this might have been when he was still with the rays. Probably was. And obviously things changed for him when he went to the Dodgers. But he made the point, if you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent, and that’s where the Orioles kind of find themselves at this point, especially being a team that is not going to have a
Nestor Aparicio 23:56
by the way. The headlines, you know, they they were in on him. They were, yeah, I remember all that with Angelos being in on Mark to share.
Luke Jones 24:04
And let me be clear. Look, it doesn’t have to be Dylan cease, but it needs to be one of these guys. Like you need a top, a top of the rotation guy, whether we want to, whether we want to, you know, split hairs here and say whether it’s going to be a one. And what wows you? What? Wows you that you
Nestor Aparicio 24:21
send a text out, and I’m like, holy ish, yeah, you know what? Paul rufe and Gordian energy WNS detect what they said, what I mean? Because the hell’s the day, yeah, okay. I mean, I, I, I expect them to spend $28 million you know what? I mean, like they are in the business of Major League Baseball. I don’t expect them to spend stupid money. I think your bar is lower for them than you think it is. When we start to talk about things, you say, Whoa, that’s some really expensive like you and I walking into a bar and say that tequila is really expensive. Let’s just you can do it Okay, down here on this shelf, we don’t know to. Need to go to that shelf.
Luke Jones 25:00
Are you going to overpay for, for crappy tequila or mid range tequila and that? So there still needs to be that. I will continue to push back.
Nestor Aparicio 25:11
It’s also a mystery. Tequila in baseball, right? Oh, sure. And you’re always paying, you’re reading the racing. For me, you’re paying for past performance, no matter what you do, of course.
Luke Jones 25:20
But you also have to, but, but that also doesn’t absolve you from making a bad decision. I mean, you still need to try to
Nestor Aparicio 25:26
project. Are there any good decisions?
Luke Jones 25:30
Oh, some Max, when the NAT signed Max Scherzer, I mean, that’s, that’s the long term pitcher contract, that was like a dream. I mean, absolutely a dream. So, you know, seven years for Dylan cease. What I’ve done five for Dylan cease. Yeah, seven, but at the same time I’m fully acknowledging the Andrew Friedman quote, right? I mean, so if it’s not him, it needs to be one
Nestor Aparicio 25:52
of the reasons baseball is broken. So I sound like an old man, but I sounded like an old man in 1994 before they went on strike the first time.
Luke Jones 25:59
So, well, it’s broken, but in the same well, but we don’t say that about the the NFL. The NFL doesn’t do guaranteed contracts, other than for Kirk Cousins, right? I mean, so, um, you know, there’s look. I’ve talked about Rangers for as I mean, I think as much as you know, you kind of look at this and say, Okay, who are the true number ones? I’ll continue to say, like it needs to be someone that slots.
Nestor Aparicio 26:23
What’s the money you’re talking about here? What do you got? What do you got in your piggy bank? David, Michael,
Luke Jones 26:29
we’re gonna, we’re gonna find out. We’re gonna find out. I mean, look, could there be a move that could be made that’s going to get them a top half of the rotation guy? That’s a three or four year deal, as opposed to a seven year deal, if that’s the case and they have the conviction for it, then great, but better not be this year’s version of Charlie Morton, right? It better not be this year’s version of Sagano, right. Better not be you know, Kyle Gibson a couple years ago, right? They need, they need better than that. Now you want to go sign a back half guy, because you did trade away Grayson Rodriguez, who, at the very least, you know, even a worst case scenario was a depth, a depth option for your rotation, an upside option for your rotation going into 2026, then, yeah,
Nestor Aparicio 27:13
so where are you on the efflin,
Luke Jones 27:17
okay, it’s tough, just because it’s a back injury, right? I mean, it’s a back surgery. I mean, is he even going to be ready for spring training? You know, put it this way, if Zach Eflin wants to take a one year deal, like for him to rebuild his value,
Nestor Aparicio 27:31
if he was healthy, though. I mean, I mean, last I’m asking you, like that kind of a sign, and they’d have to be feels more Charlie, more toward Charlie Morton than it does toward no
Luke Jones 27:41
that would No, no way would that be the guy that I would say, if I’m talking is going to slot in with Bradish
Nestor Aparicio 27:48
and being day starter from six, eight months ago, right?
Luke Jones 27:51
Rotation wasn’t good enough. We knew that going into the season, right? No, he would like that would be the guy that I would sign to be my number four, number five starter, because, I mean, he had a bad year. He’s coming off of back surgery, if he look, if they had great, great reports on his recovery, and he’s willing to take a one year deal, and it’s for something that’s sensible and has some incentives built in, if he, if he throws 150 innings, they’re great. I I like Zach efland. I like the trade when they made that two years ago. You know, he pitched really well for them the end of 24 at a time when they lost grace and Rodriguez, if you remember. And, you know, they
Nestor Aparicio 28:31
in the land of Jack Flaherty’s and, and,
Luke Jones 28:34
but that’s but that that can’t be their best, that that can’t be their best signing, right? I mean, if, if that’s the best they do. That’s a might be a bigger failure than last year. Because the difference now is you’re coming off of a last place here, at least last winter. Are they
Nestor Aparicio 28:49
gonna be 150 to two 50 million deep into a pitcher? Do you believe they’re gonna do that?
Luke Jones 28:53
I mean, I can kind of feel like you all two, 150 might be my max as far as what I think, because to me, what would that be like, a five year deal for 150 or something like that? I mean, Nestor, it’s so, especially in this day and age with opt outs and all that, it’s so hard to really project it. And I’m not. I am not. I’m going to plead ignorance in terms of really feeling like I have. I’m so well informed of the market that I can give you an informed projection of what they’re they’d spend on a starting pitcher. But you know, if you’re, if you’re going to go get Ranger, Suarez or frambodez, or go down the list of the other top pitchers that are out there right now, I mean, you’re not getting these guys for a one or two year deal. I mean, you’re just not. So what are you willing to do? How much long term money are you willing to commit, while also understanding that many of these pitchers are going to want an opt out after a couple years, right? In all honesty, I don’t think opt outs, you know, if you have the conviction. Someone’s going to be really good, then you shouldn’t be that afraid of an opt out. From the standpoint of if they opt out, that probably means they pitched great for you for a year or two. And if that’s the case, then you probably have gotten some surplus value relative to what you paid them, and the back half of whatever that original contract was, you’re now free from that. And most pitcher deals, most long term contracts period, generally, if it’s a good deal, you’re getting surplus value over the first half. And then, you know, you tend to lose some of that and give some of that back over the second half of the deal, right? You know, I guess the exceptions would be like a Chris Davis deal, which was just bad from Jump Street and just got worse and worse. So, you know, the opt outs and that kind of, you know, those kind of structures within a deal, you know, I Yeah, you’d like it if you’re taking on commitment. You’d like a guy to be around for more than just a year or two, but you also realize that that’s the cost of doing business in this day and age and free agency, and if that guy opts out, then you feel great about it. Like the Orioles they gave Tyler O’Neill a three year deal, obviously, we know how that deal looks. A year into it, it looks disastrous, but if Tyler O’Neill had hit 35 home runs this year. Guess what? He’d be a free agent right now, and now, maybe the Orioles would have resigned him. Maybe not. Or maybe they would have said, You know what, we’ll take the you know, we’ll take that one year and we’ll move on. And you were really good for us this year. So you know, it’s gonna be interesting. Well, it’s a recency business in so many ways. About I mean, where would you be on? Trevor Rogers, if I would have told you at the All Star Party, you’d be counting on him to start opening day, and everybody be talking about him being your incredible ace that’s going to help you win the World Series next year. You know, I mean, let’s face it, yes, and this isn’t me saying they don’t need a top line starter, because they do. But six months ago, the idea that we’d be talking about Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers, not that I was down on Bradish coming back from Tommy John, because most pitchers come back and Tommy John is successful and they resume their careers. You know, it’s a very high return rate, but it’s not 100% but the idea of what they had on paper going into the winter with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers. If someone had said that to you six or seven months ago, how you’d feel about those guys, you’d be very pleasantly surprised, because we spoke about Kyle
Nestor Aparicio 32:33
Bradish in the same way we spoke about Grayson Rodriguez, which is, we’ll see, we’ll see he’s on the side right, literally,
Luke Jones 32:40
but with the way he came back and pitched, he’s not on the side. He’s he’s in my top two or three. Now, the question for Bradish is, what do? What does his inning? What does his workload look like this year? Can you expect that he’s going to throw 190 innings that that’s very ambitious. That said there’s, I don’t think there’s any reason to be any less optimistic on him than any other pitcher you have, okay, but
Nestor Aparicio 33:05
I would say this If, if they are of the mindset, if they’re of the mindset that Trevor Rogers is going to be nine and Three with a two, 4e, r a and have 112 innings at the All Star break that he’s that guy. He’s gonna take the ball and be that, be the guy he was for two months when it didn’t matter around here. And Bradish, ditto. Bradish is going to come back and duplicate where he was in 23 and be nine and two with a two seven era, and make all of his turns and hit all of the numbers that those two guys are going to look like that, that I don’t need to spend, I don’t need Dylan cease, that there’s a thought about that, right, or that I wouldn’t need Dylan cease until I could buy him with wowing a deal on July 30 for the max Scherzer of the moment, or the jack Flaherty of them, or whatever that thing is that you think that thing is, as opposed to spending Mr. Rubenstein’s nickels and spending $184 million on a pitcher, or $212 million whatever that’s going to look like. It’s a shame they’re so mysterious about this. And I want to segue, because we’re doing a baseball segue, just about the fans temperature. We don’t sit here and take phone calls. I’m not their bitch central anymore. I’m not that’s what got me thrown out 20 years ago, is that people called and complained in a way that they didn’t take the complaints, just the stuff I’ve seen on Twitter the last couple of weeks, where they’ve banned, like, good Oreo fans on Twitter and people that have been a part of the conversation, and Katie Griggs is out doing whatever she’s doing, like, I don’t know what the fans expect this offseason. Reason, but the hardest, hardest, hardest core fans have been really offended. Not me. I’m offended. I’m offended. I am very offended. I’m offended for different reasons. I’m offended by their arrogance. I’m offended by the owner. I’m offended by the way he treated me at the at the temple the night I meant I’m offended by the whistler clown. I’m offended that you have a press credential and I don’t. I’m offended by the way they treat Jim Palmer. By the way, I’m offended by that. So I’m offended by a lot that they do, but they don’t care whether I mean, Katie’s as much as said she doesn’t care whether I buy tickets or come to the mark. Fine. They don’t care about me. But who do they care about and what do they care about, other than winning, winning, winning, winning, winning, winning, winning. I The fans are really antsy, way nasty, antsy, in a way that, in a way that I can’t be because I haven’t given them any money in 20 years. And I I went through that when Mike Flanagan was still alive. You know what I mean? Like, I went through all of that. Now I’m a reporter, and I live here and I care, and I wear orange and whatever, but my expectations for them as human beings, this group, really, really, low, really, really, I’ve seen these people, I’ve met these people, I’ve been so I have no expectation that they’re they’re gonna figure it out. But then I see, like, rank and file people that have supported this spent money on this in years where they were just awful, like you spat upon them last week in one of our segments, saying five years they stunk. They were all you, and they were and I think 23 sort of deodorized that a little bit in the hope of these young players and new ownership, and Angelos is dead and John’s gone. And, like, it should smell a lot different, and it really doesn’t. Man, and when Katie Griggs walks in the room, and I was in the room, and when Mike Elias walks in the room, and I haven’t been in that room, but you were, and I watch it on video, and the man salino thing, and the new manager, and he’s disappeared again. I mean, he’ll just go away for a while now, I guess, I mean, I, I don’t know. Man, the whole thing it, it doesn’t feel like they’re getting good press in their own in their own punch bowl. The people that drink the orange kool aid are mad. And that’s not me. It’s just me seeing it and saying, I don’t know what blood these people want from the team, one way or another, in regard to ticket pricing, media, being able to get the game media. I don’t mean me and you. I mean how to get my games. I mean I and baseball in general, and then the strike and or the lockout, or whatever it’s going to work stoppage, wherever you’re going to call it, that is looming over all of it. It’s just really, and this has nothing with the Ravens struggling, and Pittsburgh week and all that. Just, man, I don’t like the temperature, what I smell. And I live here, and Katie Griggs doesn’t know Ruxton from, you know, Randallstown registers town, but I’m here, and the people I run into when I see that went out to an Italian associate, Italian men’s group couple weeks ago. I spoke about 80 people. I mean, these are all primary, primary Oriole people, like primary Oriole people, and three of the people in the room said they went to a few games last year, and I’m thinking they’re not even mad, they’re gone, and then the people that are the nerdier go out there into the flow of everything. And I’m not being I don’t want to be offensive younger people that they clearly aren’t into it because of boogal or Louis Aparicio or Jim Palmer like I don’t know what a 30 year old would find attractive about this, but whatever it is they’re mad and I and I wouldn’t know what to do to solve them, other than be more authentic than whatever this is, where it doesn’t feel like there’s a plan. And arroged, he feels like he and he’s way more influential than anybody realizes. And Rubenstein feels like Mr. Magoo. I It’s just weird. It’s just all weird. And the wow moment of spending $200 million on a pitcher, I it’s, it’s not going to make the phones light up at Birdland to buy tickets. It’s just, I don’t know. I don’t know what they can do to get people excited. Yeah, that’s
Luke Jones 39:13
my problem. Well, you know what I’m going to say, they’ve got to win. I mean, like, well, they can’t do that now, right? And that’s where, yeah, they’re going to have to wear it a little bit in April, May. I mean, they just are just are right, and that doesn’t mean you don’t work hard and you don’t put as many ticket deals and packages and, you know, gift ideas for the month of December and promo schedules available kids. Well, I said that to you when we were talking to Pizza John’s a couple weeks ago. The idea that they had already put out their promo schedule, to me, was very telling, and by the way, wasn’t a, I’m not even saying that was a bad idea, right? You should have that stuff out in plenty of time for people to look and say, Hey, I really want to go to that game. I want to go to that game. I want to go to that game, rather than waiting till February to do that so. But, you know, look it, this. It well.
Nestor Aparicio 39:59
Say, so. Been, let me just get flippant, because I don’t find much of this. I because I want to, you know, you want to give these people the freaking bobble heads and stuff. Don’t make them stand out 92 degrees, three and a half hours in line to tell them, Johnny doesn’t get a bobblehead because he’s number 15,001 or 20,001 like, fix that ungodly experience. Like, like people are on the Nina the pit in the Santa Maria coming across in a ship stuck in that. I mean, disgraceful,
Luke Jones 40:32
especially, put some options, and I think they do that with their Birdland memberships. But for people, no, I know
Nestor Aparicio 40:37
you’re charging me $10 more for the ticket to buy the bobblehead out of China or Taiwan, right? Fine, you know? I mean, I mean, that’s all I’m gonna say on that. Because, like, look, it feels like a loser to be a winner on the promotional schedule, because I see it, and I used to stay, I was lucky enough to live high enough that I could look down upon the little people and just think to myself, my God. My God the humanity. I would say,
Luke Jones 41:02
I don’t disagree with you in a vacuum. I would also say I know from people Orioles. You know people who cover the Orioles that were out in LA when they did show Hey, Otani bobblehead night, people were lined up at the stadium at 9am right? I mean, I don’t disagree with your general point. I don’t think that’s an Orioles only thing. But that said, Are there measures you can take to mitigate that so you’re not treating people like they’re, you know, like hogs waiting to be fed or something like that? Yeah. I mean, so. But to go back to, you know, the greater point here, and because you talked about why, you know, so many people are so frustrated, so many people are checked out, even the, you know, Die Hard. Been there. Went, went to 30 games in 2018 and 19 Orioles fans. How many of them are frustrated? Look, it’s never just one thing. I think you know, having talked to different people in my life, people that were 13 game plan holders who that plan is no longer a thing. 29 game plan holders now being asked to do a 40 game plan, right? I mean, so they’ve changed things like that. But I think for me, and generally speaking, and you know, this even goes back to you cited what I said recently about how, you know, they stunk for five years, I think there’s such a sense for this current, this current iteration of the Orioles, this current Elias, Elias, and now the post Angelos Orioles that they went through, this rebuild, they went through all this transition, they they did. They did not shy away from the fact, I’m saying they were going to stink for several, a few years, right? They did not shy away from that. They did not promise that they were going to spend on major league players and then not do it. They said point blank that they were rebuilding, and this was a multi year thing. So people heard that. I think people accepted that as much as they could. I think even those who are the die hards continued to go out there. And, you know, tickets were cheaper then, and you know they had some perks for Birdland membership holders and all that. So they get good, there’s excitement that does not result in a single playoff win in 23 or 24 the second half of 24 goes the way that it does at that point in time, the new regime is in, and they’re already raising season ticket prices and changing the parameters for buying postseason tickets and locking in for the next year and all that. And I feel there’s very much at this point in time now, especially in the aftermath of a last place season that fans were promised something and a job was not finished yet, the team is proceeding as though things are great, and boy, you know, this is just the cost of doing business. And I think there’s a betrayal that’s felt there amongst a lot of season ticket holders who have who stuck by them through this time. And look, we can go back, I mean, and there’s a lot of baggage, there’s a lot of scar tissue that you’ve talked about at length, but even going
Nestor Aparicio 44:02
that they absolutely never acknowledged in question, any circumstance, not publicly, and certainly not to me. When I went to that Chris, whatever Ullman, whatever his name is, Mark fine, my LinkedIn buddy, like I went to these guys, I went to David Rubenstein, looked him in the eye, had my hand on his hand and said, you know, there’s been a lot of trauma here, like, I mean, like, right? And I mean Mike Flanagan in my case, right? But I mean, there’s been a lot of trauma here in a general scope of what this franchise is represented for the people who still love it and still have their their Christmas tree with Birdland stuff on it, like and like. I’m not here to, in any way, diminish those folks, but those folks that supported this when I no longer could, because I went in and said, my integrity won’t allow this. And. In many, many, many ways, in many cases, for many years. But these people endured it for whatever it is, and I saw how important it was when I was out there on clinch night and seeing people out there that had waited another generation to have a night where they can win a division two years ago. So I mean,
Luke Jones 45:18
and that’s where we go back to look. This is leisure. This is Entertainment. This is an escape for people. Like it’s it’s not always that deep, right? And how deep and how important it is varies from you to me, to anyone listening right now.
Nestor Aparicio 45:33
And why? Because it goes back 50 years for me, and because it coming off a boat and bringing me to America, Venezuela, which we’re now going to war with, by the way, but that’s it. But, like, Yeah, I mean, we all have a story. My story is a little bit more unique, but your story is your dad and your dad being an usher in Essex and and your dad loving Brooks and, like, like all of that, that’s
Luke Jones 45:54
yet, yet. I haven’t lived any anything of as far as the team success. I haven’t lived anything of real, no. I mean, in my lifetime, and I’m not counting when I was two weeks old, right? So Delman Young’s your moment. My my lifetime. I mean, the Delman young thing as far as the Camden Yards in game moment, yeah, but in terms of, like, their success, we’re talking about three trips to the ALCS over my lifetime, 9697 and 2014 they haven’t had a, I mean, they barely sniffed a pennant, let alone actually won one in in going on 40, they haven’t won an ALCS game this century, right? That’s what I’m saying. So, so. But to bring it back to the here and now, because again, I agree with you an acknowledgement of the past at the same time, I also don’t know what exactly they can do, like, I mean, acknowledge it, pledge to be better, but they can’t change history, right? So, but, but to bring it back to the modern you know, this current regime, there was a plan that was laid out that they were going to really stink for 345, years, right? And again, the first year of that was before Elias even arrived, right? That was the unintentional losing year, you know, where they signed Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner and thought that they were going to, you know, somehow figure out how to have one more wild card run before they you know, before Manny
Nestor Aparicio 47:23
Machado left, I couldn’t figure Alex Cobb’s name five minutes. Yeah, save my life.
Luke Jones 47:27
But remember that season was like, but you have this multi year plan. You have this great farm system. You didn’t spend money with the idea that you were going to spend money when you got good, right? And that’s why people don’t trust these long term rebuilt I know, and you know, I’m wrapping up here, but it got to a certain point, and then what’s next. It feels very much unfinished, right? And that’s where the concern here is, yet, how they’re how they perceive it, and how they’re charging ticket prices and doing the things that they’ve done with changing Birdland membership, and Katie Griggs would tell you they’re modernizing that because that was antiquated in how they did and maybe so if you compare to the other 29 teams, I don’t know. I’m not intimately familiar with how every team does that, yet, the product on the field stunk this past year. And when that is coupled with everything that led up to that, and you’re making those changes in terms of pricing and tickets and all that, and you had this long rebuild yet, two playoff appearances and not a single win. Yeah, people are going to be ticked off about that, and you’ve got a lot to prove, and it’s why this is a critical offseason that said, I’m not sure there’s a player they could sign that is automatically going to make anyone sign up for a full season Birdland membership. So you need to go make some darn good moves and then go win. And if you do that, come April and May and June and into the summer, people will start to come back. If you don’t, and you have another last place finished, then I shudder to think what that ballpark looks like the second half of next year, but you know that’s why you need to go out and go spend money. You keep saying you have money to spend. Go do it. Spend it wisely, but go do it and make this a better ball club. Huh?
Nestor Aparicio 49:12
It’s nice to be important, but it’s much more important to be nice. He’s Luke. I’m Nestor. We’re Baltimore positive. Stay with us.