Is Byron Buxton going to be traded this winter? According to one reputable insider, there’s a 35% chance the Minnesota Twins deal him. More prominent in the insider’s report, however, is that Buxton is apparently now willing to waive his no-trade clause.

That’s the word Tuesday from ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause — and not just for Atlanta (he’s a Georgia native) — which puts the Twins in an interesting position,” Passan writes. “If the paucity of frontline free agent outfielders prompts a team to make an offer for Buxton, how seriously would Minnesota take it? And if Buxton goes, does that mean the Twins would be open to dealing some of their pitching, too? The Twins are one of the most fascinating teams this winter because of the possibilities at their disposal.”

What Passan didn’t mention is a recent report from local Twins insider Dan Hayes, who in early November wrote that Buxton “wants to play for a winner and may reconsider his stance for certain clubs if the Twins continue breaking up their roster, potentially by trading starting pitchers Joe Ryan or Pablo López.”

If Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause, it could be a signal that Buxton isn’t convinced the Twins will be competitive in 2026. Of course, that’s not at all shocking considering Minnesota traded 10 core players before last season’s trade deadline, including a massive salary dump in which they dealt shortstop Carlos Correa to the Astros for a pitcher who was released by the Twins after the season.

Buxton waiving his no-trade clause could also be a signal that Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez are on the verge of being traded. Passan says there’s a 50% chance of Ryan and Lopez being traded.

That would fall in line with Buster Olney’s early November report in which he said Major League Baseball’s labor situation, which could lead to a lockout in 2027, might force the Twins to expedite their decision on Ryan, who is due to earn $6.1 million next season before his final season of arbitration in 2027.

Trading Ryan and/or Lopez before 2026 begins might increase their value if interested teams fear they could lose a year of either player’s contract in a shortened 2027 season.

It’s a messy situation, but this might wind up being a good thing for the Twins because they would be trading Buxton when his value is at its highest following a rare healthy season for a soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder.

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