You know, as cranky as some of the fandom has become over the past few days as it becomes clear the Giants are using the press to either tamp down fan enthusiasm about free agency or short circuit Scott Boras’s efforts to use them (again) as a stalking horse, it’s still the case that the San Francisco Giants really, truly, honestly, desperately need to add some starting pitchers to their major league roster this offseason.
Buster Posey (and ownership) appears to be signaling that the number of SPs needed is closer to 1, but after watching the Giants try to cover innings in 2025, I think 3 ought to be the floor. Admittedly, both the Giants and I live in realities of our own creation, so, it’s likely that an absolute minimum of 2 is the realistic position. But given that the Giants have no payroll flexibility when it comes to starting pitcher deals, we must tread lightly in our ambitions. A little less than three months ago, I was out here saying they should just re-sign Justin Verlander, but recent public comments from ownership, “industry sources,” and “club sources” suggest that Verlander is Justout of reach. [Brady, make sure to cut “Justout” if you can’t punch it up. Thanks.]
So, who does that leave us with for the sake of speculation and rosterbation?
Last month, Brady put together a comprehensive list of free agents and their fit on the team, and it’s all very reasonable. At the same time, there’s a reality where even the least ambitious parts of his list are still too ambitious — at least when it comes to starting pitchers. It’s entirely plausible that there’s payroll flexibility for a position player. Everyone is quick to mention the Chapman & Adames deals as well as the trade for Rafael Devers as evidence, but they were also willing to blow it out for Carlos Correa (I’m still not convinced that Aaron Judge offer was ever real). There’s money for the sexy addition, and starting pitching just doesn’t do anything for ownership, I guess, even if it’s the thing that brought the franchise its unparalleled success.
I got a long way into this post before finally doing a quick review of the work out there and saw that Grant had already written about this very idea for The Athletic yesterday. His list of names gets a lot closer to the idea I’m after, right down to using Patrick Corbin as the figurehead (I had him in a previous draft but have deleted him for this reason) — but! Even Grant didn’t plunge the depths I think will be necessary to find two starters at the preferred price point.
Justin Verlander’s floor is at least his 2025 salary ($15 million), but he might be able to get more than that just based on how well he pitched down the stretch, so, I think he’s out. Righty Brad Keller had a breakout year in the Cubs’ bullpen but is looking to be in a major league rotation for 2026 and has a projected AAV of $12 million, so scratch him off the list (plus, after the Jordan Hicks debacle, the Giants might not want to try the reliever-to-starter experiment again). Maybe the Giants could strap one of these I’m about to discuss to someone with a slightly higher AAV (Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt?) to make it work (two for $20 million, let’s say), but there’s no reason to expect that.
So, let’s look at the bottom rung, bog standard starting pitchers out there in free agency who might satisfy the dual conditions of being cheap plus short term while potentially providing modest value in 2026. Some of these arms are more likely flirting with NRI status than guaranteed major league deals, but I think that’s only true if other teams are showing interest. If the Giants come calling, their agents know that it’s a starving animal begging for scraps and not a predator hunting for surplus value. Still, there’s something in each of their profiles that give the Giants exactly what they need (experienced innings) with the potential upside of being better than a serviceable 5th starter. Here’s the list (their 2025 results in parenthesis) with my guess at their potential salary.
Walker Buehler (BOS & PHI: 24 GS, 4.93 ERA, -0.3 fWAR)
Downside: It’s reasonable to say that the bloom has come off the rose. Buehler placed third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2023, was an All-Star and picked up Cy Young votes in 2019 and 2021, but since then it’s been a career hobbled by injuries, from Tommy John surgery, to hip and shoulder problems. His fastball velocity has dropped considerably since he was an All-Star and receiving Cy Young votes (2018-2021: 96.2 mph, 2022-2025: 94.7 mph). His strikeout rates keep falling and falling while his walk and home rates go up and up:
2018-2021 (564 IP): 9.89 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 11.6% HR/FB | 2.82 ERA / 3.16 FIP
2022-2025 (266.1 IP): 7.23 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, 1.55 HR/9, 16.0% HR/FB | 4.83 ERA / 5.17 FIP
Upside: A fallen Dodger seeking refuge in his former rival seems like an interesting story. In the pure baseball sense, that diminished fastball velo isn’t a total disaster when you look at his slider spin (2,500+ rpm) and sweeper (2,700+ rpm). Both still get considerable swing and miss, and the Red Sox might not have been the best fit for repairing that heater. The Red Sox cut him after 24 appearances (23 GS) but got picked up by the Phillies and made 3 appearances for them in September, two of them starts. What did the Phillies have him do? Throw the fastball more. In start #1, 36 of 90 pitches were four-seam fastballs (40%), well above his 25% usage rate in Boston. It basically sat 93-95, which isn’t great, but because he used it so often it wound up making his breaking pitches more effective. In his second appearance, 20 of 60 (33%) were four-seamers. He sat 93-94. In his third appearance (start #2), he threw it 28.4% of the time and sat 93-94. His brief Philadelphia line: 13.2 ERA 0.66 ERA (3.72 FIP) 8 K 6 BB 10 H 1 ER and a 3.5 to 1 flyball to groundball ratio.
But with the secondary pitch stuff potentially settled as above average, maybe there’s an opportunity for the new coaching staff to get him in their new lab and help him regain his strikeout form with a retooled motion that delivers a 95+ fastball velocity for one season and, say, 140 innings.
2026 Steamer projection: 24 GS 130 IP 4.91 ERA 0.7 fWAR
Salary guess: $6MM-$10MM. I think the obvious decline in stuff is enough to push him from flawed injury guy with All-Star potential to “guy who’s gotta prove it,” and that means a 1-year deal for far less than what he got from the Red Sox in 25 ($18.05 million) and possibly less than what he got in his final year with the Dodgers through arbitration ($8.025 million).
Zach Eflin (BAL: 14 GS, 71.1 IP, 5.93 ERA, -0.3 fWAR)
Downside: Back surgery ended his 2025 with the above line, so you might be able to chalk it up to injury as the cause of this troubling free agent case. On the other hand, his sub-average fastball velocity (92-93 mph) paired with a declining strikeout rate (7.29 K/9 in 2024, 6.31 in 2025) HR/FB rate that has generally not been preferred by the Giants (his career 13.7% would lead Giants starters in basically every season).
Upside: From 2020-2024, Eflin pitched 583.1 IP in 108 games (100 starts) and carried a 1.45 BB/9 and 8.55 K/9 on a 3.76 ERA (3.46 FIP). He was worth 12.7 fWAR total (about 2.5 WAR per season) and was a really solid player. Three of those seasons was in the offense-friendly Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia wand the rest was split between Tampa Bay (2023 and 2024 in the dome) and Baltimore. If he’s recovered from back surgery, it’s possible that his stuff — he has great spin on his breaking pitches — will play great in Oracle Park. During that 2020-2024 span, he was exactly as valuable as Chris Bassitt, who’s also a free agent but figures to command a bit more despite being much older. At 32, there’s certainly the chance that he’s at the end of his solidly above average profile, but on the other hand, it’s tough to ignore that just very recently he was one of the best pitchers in the sport at inducing soft contact (18.4%), right along the likes of Bassitt, Max Fried, Freddy Peralta, Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani, and Adrian Houser, all guys who have been on team’s radars the past few offseasons.
2026 Steamer projection: 29 GS 164 IP 4.15 ERA 2.0 fWAR
Salary guess: $8MM-$12MM. This is the high end range, but he made $18 million last season and $11 million the year before. Did injury really take out his free agent value? Possibly. His age plus a return from back surgery probably eat into his projected effectiveness, upping the risk; and, the Rays are said to have interest in a reunion, which suggests that they’re thinking he can be had for a lower price. That’s probably because he doesn’t figure to pitch better than that 2-WAR projection.
Adrian Houser (CHW & TB: 21 GS, 125 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.3 fWAR)
Downside: If you can’t strike them out… ground them out? I guess that’s an approach, and Houser’s ability to get groundballs is useful (57% from 2019-2021, 47.7% since), but he He has been one of the hardest hit pitchers in the Statcast era.
2025: 47.6% (5th percentile)
2024: 40.4% (35th)
2023: 46.3% (5th)
2022: 41.5% (19th)
2021: 36.0% (69th)
2020: 32.8% (75th)
2019: 35.3% (61st)
That’s three seasons well above average and four seasons well below and it’s all thanks to a fastball velocity that went from above average to below over the span of a few seasons.
Prior to 2025, he’d never been better than league average. He stormed out of the gates with the White Sox this season before coming back down to earth with the Rays, who acquired him at the trade deadline.
Upside: Per Kiley McDaniel for ESPN.com, “Houser had a good 2025 in large part because mechanical tweaks helped the velocity of his sinker go from 92.5 mph in 2024 to 94.4 in 2025.” His slider spin increased, too.
2026 Steamer projection: 24 GS 138 IP 4.48 ERA 1.2 fWAR
Salary guess: $6MM-$10MM. He made around $5 million in 2024 and then somewhere in the range of just $1.4 million in 2025, but he pitched so well that I think he’s in the clear to get back to his 2024 range. He’ll be entering his age-33 season, too, so teams will be wary of that. On the other hand, on a one-year deal, it’s probably not a big risk. The Rays are said to have interest in a reunion with him, too.
Germán Márquez (COL: 26 GS, 126.1 IP, 6.70 ERA, 0.3 fWAR)
Downside: He had Tommy John surgery in 2023 and in his second year back after the surgery — the time when pitchers are generally considered to have fully recovered — he posted a career low 5.91 K/9 and career high walk rate of 3.42 per 9 and a career worst 37.1% groundball rate. A bad sign for a pitcher who excelled in Coors Field and in his twenties with about a 50% rate. He pitched worse away from Coors Field than he did in Coors Field, with an ERA split of 7.32 road (67.2 IP) and 5.98 home (58.2 IP). Everything on his Statcast page was so blue as to be purple. He has continued to have elbow and bicep problems since TJ surgery and missed time this season.
Upside: He’ll be just 31 and would be pitching at Oracle Park versus Coors Field. Admittedly, he has pitched very poorly in San Francisco (6.03 ERA in 74.2 IP with 14 home runs allowed — 5 of them in 2025!), but with his velocity (95+) and spin back to his career norms, there’s enough on-paper data to indicate that he’s worth a major league contract. Plus, it’s very easy to envision the Giants having a better coaching staff, medical staff, and scouting department than the Rockies to optimize his performance. On a 1-year prove it deal? Why not?
2026 Steamer projection: 26 GS 139 IP 4.81 ERA 0.9 fWAR
Salary guess: $5MM-$9MM. He made $10 million in each of the last two seasons thanks to an extension he signed with the Rockies, but the open market might value him differently. Certainly, avoiding a major crashout in 2025 buoys his potential earnings, and last offseason saw multiple players who had struggled to put up value the in the two seasons prior but had across multiple seasons before that (Alex Wood, James Paxton, Mike Clevinger) get deals in this range. I think the stuff and experience might be enough to keep him near the higher end.
Foster Griffin (Yomiuri Giants: 13 GS, 78 IP, 77 K, 18 BB, 1 HR, 1.62 ERA)
Downside: A soft-tossing lefty who will be in his age-30 season in 2026 doesn’t sound like a great investment, especially when the other Japanese league based players coming to MLB this offseason are Tatsuya Imai and Cody Ponce, two arms that sit 93-97 mph with their fastballs. Griffin’s 90-92 doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and his MLB career, such as it was, suggested that he was overmatched. As positive a story as his career reclamation in Japan is, his best spot on a major league roster looks to be in the bullpen.
Upside: Above average command is above average command. Limiting walks and preventing home runs is exactly what a team should want out of a starter and, of course, Oracle Park would help.
2026 Steamer projection: 18 GS 102 IP 3.98 ERA 1.5 fWAR
Salary guess: $3MM-$7MM. I’ll admit that Cody Ponce’s 3-year, $30 million deal really scrambles my confidence when it comes to guesstimating a player’s salary. Not only does it potentially raise the floor for the other players like Griffin who want to return to the States after a stint in Japan, it potentially impacts everyone I’ve mentioned on this list. If Cody Ponce gets $10 million AAV, then why couldn’t Adrian Houser?
Andrew Heaney (PIT & LAD: 23 GS, 120.1 IP, 5.59 ERA, -0.3 fWAR)
Downside: It doesn’t get more journeyman than this. Across 12 major league seasons, Heaney has been league average (~2 WAR) three times (2015, 2018, 2024). He’ll be in his age-35 season in 2026, and that will follow a precipitous decline in velocity over the past several years: 93 mph in 2022, 92.5 in 2023, 91.8 in 2024, and 90.2 in 2025. Strikeouts have gone down and ERA has gone up. Although he seems able to limit walks, because he can’t strike hitters out consistently anymore, they’re hitting more homers off of him. He’s dangerously close to being the fully realized and future version of Foster Griffin.
Upside: There is only one reason I have him on this list. The Giants hired Frank Anderson away from Tennessee for an unspecified role. He was Tony Vitello’s pitching coach there and, previously (from 2004-2012), the manager of the OSU Cowboys.
STILLWATER, Oklahoma – Friday’s game might have been just another one for OSU as a whole, but it was a special one for coach Frank Anderson.
Anderson reached a milestone with a 7-2 victory over Bowling Green State, picking up his 300th career victory as the Cowboys’ coach.
[…]
Pitcher Andrew Heaney had a lot to do with the win, racking up a career-high 12 strikeouts and allowing just one run in 7.1 innings. His 12 strikeouts are the most by a Big 12 pitcher this season and he leads the league with 22 on the year.
2026 Steamer projection: 23 GS 121 IP 4.65 ERA 0.9 fWAR
Salary guess: $2MM-$6MM. Does he have anything left in the tank? Probably not. But, I present this connection between coaching staff and player for your consideration. I think you could do far worse than come up with lists of possible free agent or trade targets using coach-player connections. Baseball has always been a relationship business, the “Moneyball revolution” notwithstanding.
Downside: It’s no guarantee that a player returning to MLB from the NPB will replicate what made them a hot commodity once they slip back into the familiar surroundings of the United States. Kay’s minor league career showed a strikeout guy with questionable command who walked a lot of hitters and gave up home runs. The Yokohama Bay Star’s version of Kay is a guy who didn’t walk hitters nor surrender home runs, but also did not strikeout hitters very often.
Upside: He’s better than Foster Griffin and has a fastball that sits 93-95 while topping out at 96. In his two seasons as a Bay Star, his groundball rate was about 55% and he simply did not give up home runs (14 in 291.2 IP). He’s no Framber Valdez, but if you want to approximate him or fashion a poor team’s version of him, a revamped Anthony Kay might come close on a short-term deal.
2026 Steamer projection: 19 GS 111 IP 4.17 ERA 1.3 fWAR
Salary guess: $4MM-$8MM. Again, Ponce sort of skews what this could be. Because Kay (and Griffin) project to be less good than Ponce, they probably don’t need to come close to Ponce’s $10 million AAV. On the other hand, rising tide lifts all boats, right? And, most importantly, lineups across the sport struggle against left-handed pitching nearly as much as the Giants have (.307 wOBA vs. LHP compared to .315 wOBA vs. RHP).
John Means (2025: rehabbed on Cleveland’s Triple-A)
Downside: He had Tommy John surgery about a month into the 2024 season and so he only got into 7 games for the Guardians’ minor league teams at the very end of 2025 and he didn’t do well: a 47% Hard Hit rate, 10 walks against just 15 strikeouts in 20.1 IP. Hitters weren’t fooled, a tough situation for a soft-tossing lefty. That’s right: anther soft-tossing lefty. This one’s heyday was 2019-2021, when he pitched 345.1 IP in 67 games (63 GS). He has made just 10 starts since 2022. His FIP has been 2 runs higher than his ERA for his whole career. I’m not even sure why I’m putting him on the list at this point. OK, he was an All-Star and 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 2019. So, he had a moment.
Upside: He could be had for cheap?
2026 Steamer projection: 24 GS 138 IP 4.82 ERA 0.5 fWAR
Salary guess: $4MM-$8MM. This feels like a bit too much for a player who hasn’t been able to stay healthy for multiple seasons. The Guardians signed him to a rehab deal hoping to capture lightning but he wasn’t able to get back in time to impact the end of the 2025 season and was bad based on the limited sampling in the minor leagues; so, rather than let the situation play out anymore and risking losing a decent chunk of change, they declined his $6 million option for 2026. I’m sure he will try to get a deal that comes close to the one he had. I don’t think the Giants need to be the team that offers it, though.
Squint and you can see positive outcomes for almost all of these players in 2026. If you just let the names wash over you, it feels uninspiring. It feels lackluster. It feels like a team spinning its wheels. Let’s say Max Scherzer to Vitello (I-I mean the Giants) is basically a done deal. That’s not an arm that can be counted on for a full season or approaching full season’s workload. Pair that with one of the above and the Giants’ pitching depth is more questionable than answered. Get two from the above with no Scherzer and it becomes a question of coaching and development. It has never been a good idea to believe in free agency, but between that, general veteran experience (as exemplified by Scherzer) and Tony Vitello, Buster Posey will have to put his faith in something.