CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Guardians find themselves in a frustrating but familiar position as MLB’s free agency period crawls along — stuck in neutral while baseball’s top-tier free agents take their sweet time deciding their futures.
This isn’t just a minor inconvenience. For mid-market teams like Cleveland, this “log jam” effect can dramatically impact their entire offseason strategy, forcing them to wait patiently while stars like Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, and Cody Bellinger command the spotlight and the headlines.
“There tends to be these log jams, especially heading into the winter meetings,” explained Joe Noga on the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. “Where the top guys on the market… once those guys come off the board, that’s when the free agent market starts to open up and that’s when the Guardians can start going after their guys because they’re not targeting many of the top names on this list.”
This waiting game is particularly excruciating when your team desperately needs offensive improvements. While fans grow anxious for moves, the front office must practice patience before they can even begin serious negotiations with their targets.
Paul Hoynes highlighted the stark contrast between MLB’s free agency process and other major sports: “MLB takes all winter and it can be a laborious process. It can drive you a little crazy. But most free agents, guys like Schwaber and Kyle Tucker and Alonso, Bellinger and Alex Bregman and, and Bo Bichette, they want to get this thing over with. It’s the agents that are always looking for the best deal, but there’s really no deadline to force these guys to sign.”
Without a hard deadline to drive decisions, the market crawls at a glacial pace. Unlike the NFL, NBA, or NHL, where free agency periods are condensed into frenzied weeks or even days, baseball’s offseason can stretch interminably, with key signings sometimes not happening until February.
Adding another layer of complexity this offseason is the looming expiration of baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. As Noga astutely observed, “There’s an expiring labor contract out there and the whole specter of a lockout possibility. How is that going to affect this market? Or will that just have a chilling effect on the rest of the market after those top guys sign?”
This uncertainty could push players to seek longer-term security now or might cause teams to hesitate on long-term commitments with labor uncertainty ahead. Either way, it’s yet another factor that could delay the market’s movement.
For Cleveland, whose strategy typically involves targeting players in the second and third tiers of free agency, this waiting game is particularly consequential. The longer the top-tier market remains frozen, the less time the Guardians have to execute their plan, potentially missing out on key targets who might sign elsewhere in a sudden market rush.
The winter meetings, scheduled for next week, often serve as a catalyst for free agent signings. But whether this traditional accelerant will be enough to break the logjam remains to be seen. Until then, the Guardians and their fans must practice the most difficult virtue in sports: patience, even as the need for offensive improvement grows more urgent by the day.
Podcast transcript
Joe Noga: Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. I’m Joe Noga, joined by Paul Hoynes Hoynsey Last night, at least a little bit of movement in the Major League baseball free agent market. Devin Williams, the late inning reliever, sometimes I guess, erstwhile closer for the Yankees last season and free agent this year, staying in New York. He will just changed teams. He goes over to the Mets. A three year, $51 million deal. Interesting. No deferrals in this, in this deal, no opt outs. Just a straight three year, $51 million contract for Devin Williams. Does this signal that Edwin Diaz is on his way out in, in New York? Or is this a, is there a possibility that the Mets not only keep Devin Williams but also resign Edwin Diaz as well?
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, I think it could go both ways, Joe. I mean there have been reports that the Mets are still interested in, in bringing back Diaz as a closer. Perhaps Devin Williams would be the setup guy. But Devin Williams had a kind of stubbed his toe at Yankee Stadium. I mean, things did not go well for him there. I’m surprised he is staying in New York because Mets fans can be just as tough as Yankee fans if you’re not going well.
Joe Noga: Yeah, they, they tried to use him as a closer. He got, you know, moved into that role, moved out of that role. His, his best years in Milwaukee were as a setup man though, you know, as I recall.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, Josh Hader was the closer there. Yeah. And you know, when Hayter left, he moved into the, to the, the Closers role in 2023, had 36 saves. So you know, he, he can do the job. But you know, you wonder if he’s one of those guys that, you know, is, can’t pitch in New York. You know, there’s, that, there’s been players like that that just don’t like the atmosphere there. So you know, but obviously the money was right and the situation must have been right to go from the Bronx to, to Queens. So we’ll see how this works out.
Joe Noga: Yeah, 67 appearances for Devin Williams, 18 saves last year, a 4 and 6 record with a 4.79 ERA. A lot of guys getting big money who have four 4.0 or, or higher eras this off season so far. It just goes to show you how, how much value is being placed on these, these late inning relievers, the setup men and the, the closers. And this was a trend that we saw, you know, all the way back to before the, the trade deadline. Just how much, you know, value these teams are putting on these guys to Come in and close down games late.
Paul Hoynes: Definitely the closes are starting to get paid now. We saw it at the trade deadline. You know, where hands, they’re very, you know, they’re, they’re a valuable piece. And when you think about the Devin Williams signing in relationship to the Guardians, it just goes to point out that with the uncertain future of Emanuel, Class A, they have a big hole to fill in that bullpen. You know, they’ve lost Jacob Junas to a free agency. You know, everyone points to how much work they’re going to have to do offensively, but I still think they need to find, you know, one more or two more really kind of strong ey armed relievers, you know, in the mold of, you know, Hunter Gaddis and, and you know, Cade, Cade Smith, the guys that can give you 60 to 70 appearances, I think, you know, they need that.
Joe Noga: Yeah, and, and we’ve seen that that being the trend over the last two to three years is that they will tend to, to ride those guys. They’re the back end of their bullpen quite a bit during the season. You’re right. They might have things figured out in terms of the closer. Cade Smith might be the guy the Wings and the closer sort of in waiting there. Steven Vo hasn’t necessarily come out and named him the guy yet, but we all see which way the wind is blowing on that. But they still, like you said, need to sort of fortify that back end and make sure you can get the ball to a guy like Hunter Gattis and Kate Smith in the eighth and ninth innings. It’s going to take a couple of veteran arms like you said. All right, so yeah, Devin Williams, you know, coming in there late last night. But there are, on the position player side of things, there’s, there tends to be these log jams, especially heading into the winter meetings like we are at the end of the week here, where the top guys on the market, the top names in terms of outfielders, infielders, hitters, that once those guys come off the board, that’s when the free agent market sort of starts to open up and that’s when the Guardians can sort of start going after their guys because, you know, they’re not targeting many of the top names on this list. You pointed out a few of the guys out there, the Kyle Tucker’s, the Kyle Schwaber’s, Alex Bregman, Boba Shet, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, those are the guys at the top. Those are the guys who are going to be making the nine figure salaries over the, you know, next, you know, six to 10 years. What are the, what are the prospects of those guys moving? And when do you see that sort of start to shift before the guardians can sort of jump into the, the free agent pool?
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, it’s hard to predict, Joe. I mean, usually a couple of these guys will go, you know, right at the winter meetings or right after the winter meetings. You know, we’re getting into that prime territory. But a lot of times these, these, you know what, these guys will linger. They’ll look for the best market. It depends what the demand is. You know, in, in the NBA and the NHL, I mean in the, and the NFL, you know, their free agent period is confined. There’s a deadline. So people are, you know, flying out of the. They’re. They’re signing contracts quickly. But the MLB takes all winter and it can be a laborious process. You know, it can drive you a little crazy. But most free agents, guys like Schwaber and Tucker and Alonzo, Bellinger and Bregman and, and Bichette, they want to get this thing over with. I think it’s the agents that are always looking for, you know, the best deal, but there’s really no deadline to force these guys to sign.
Joe Noga: That’s an interesting choice of words there for you there, Hoinsey. Laborious because you bring up labor, you bring up the idea that there were actually one year from the day away from the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement for Major League Baseball. So how will the fact that there’s an expiring labor contract, you know, out there and the whole specter of a, a lockout possibility, how is that going to affect this market? Or is that going to affect the market for those top guys like we just mentioned, you know, Tucker and Schwaber and them, Is it going to affect where they go or how much money they get? Or will that just have a chilling effect on the rest of the market after those guys sign?
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, I do not know, Joe. I mean that’s a great question. We’re going to have to wait and see just how that works. I would think the top guys are going to get paid. They’re going to get paid. How the, our multi year deal is, is worked, you know, how they work at multi year deal. What, you know, incentives or clauses they put in there based on the possibility of a lockout. You know, depends. It might go from team to team or perhaps MLB has a blanket policy on who gets paid and who doesn’t get paid in the event of a lockout or A strike after the 2026 season.
Joe Noga: The good old days when all we had to factor into that was how Covid and a shortened season would affect, you know, remember the last time they negotiated a collective bargaining agreement? That was one of the key sticking points was how much money, what percentage of their contracts the, the players were going to make in a shortened season like that. Again, if, if the season is less than 162 games because of whatever, because of whatever lockout and that, that sort of thing, all of that could go into effect and how much money these, these big contracts are going to take and how it affects the Guardians and how it affects when they can go after the players that they’re targeting or the guys who remain on the market at whatever cost that they have. So all certainly things to keep an eye on and sort of look out for. And you know, we’ve talked about Cleveland’s, you know, possibilities, guys that are out there that, you know, maybe would look attractive. I know you listed in your post, you know, this morning three guys who could help in that regard. Uh, do you want to, you know, sort of go through the names that are out there?
Paul Hoynes: I was just, you know, looking at guys, you know, that, that kind of fall down into the second or third tiers of free agent hitters. One of them is Harrison Batter Bader, who played with the Twins in Phillies last year. Guardians fans, I’m sure remember him from the 2022 ALDS when he was with the Yankees and hit three home runs in that series that the Guardians lost. You know, this, you know, a left hand, a right handed hitter hit 277, 17 homers, 54 RBIs. He’s 31, you know, and I think, you know that with the Guardians getting so little production out of center field last year, I think this guy would be a good fit. Now I’m sure a lot of other teams are looking at him as well.
Joe Noga: Another guy, well, just in terms of Bader, you’re looking at him for a center field position, but we did see Chase Dilaudor come in last year and play in the last two games of the season. And you know that the Guardians like him and want to give him opportunities. What would Bader’s presence mean for Chase Salar’s ability to develop there? If they, you know, if they’re signing Harrison Bader, it’s not going to be to a one year deal. It’s going to be to a maybe a two or a, you know, three year deal or a two year deal with an option at some point. And does that mean Chase the Lauder goes to right field?
Paul Hoynes: It could mean that, you know, I think that’s, you know, the, the problem. One of the problems the Guardians are wrestling with heard Chris Antonetti at the end of the season press conference say one of the factors involved in, in, you know, retooling this team for 2026 was that they have so many young prospects that they don’t want to bring in a, you know, kind of middle of the road free agent just to block their pass. They want, they want their young players to play in the big leagues. But I’m just thinking, you know, they have so many, you know, this is a roster full of gu. Like to Lauder and, and you know, the list goes on and on. So, you know, how do you, how do you mix that? They. They need to find some help offensively. They, they need to add a batter to and still be able to develop the guys they want to develop at the big league level. I’m thinking maybe the, you know, you could move to Lauder to right field because right field is, is worse than it’s been worse, worse production than center field based on last season. So maybe that’s where you go.
Joe Noga: Yeah, Dilaudo wouldn’t have to give you too much in order to make that a positive move in terms of an improvement in there in right field this season if he’s allowed to develop and grow. You mentioned Jorge Polanco here, 32 years old. He just seems like he’s been around.
Paul Hoynes: Forever and you know, he’s coming off a really bounce back season with the Mariners. Had a great postseason, hit 26 home runs. The Guardians have a book on this guy. They’ve saw him for years with the Twins. Not the best defender, but certainly he might be able to fit into that infield mix with the way the Guardians shuffle players and would definitely be a boost to the offense. But again, they’ve got to make it work with their young guy.
Joe Noga: If he could play the outfield at all, he’d be perfect for the Guardians. Right? He’d be, he’d be exactly what they need. He could play three different infield positions and move out to the outfield. He’d be exactly what they looking or they’re. They’re looking for there, but no such luck there. And you have Paul Goldschmidt listed here and, and 38 years old and boy, I just see that and I think Keith Hernandez.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, that’s. God, I didn’t, I did not think about Keith Hernandez. Yeah, but you know, this is a guy that Joe, I mean, you know how much they struggled against lefties last year. Talking about the Guardians, Goldsmith, obviously I had a hot start with the Yankees last year. Faded, but still hit.336 against lefties. Seven homers, 16 RBIs. You know, I think he could, you know, he’s a right handed hitter. He could play first base, maybe platoon A with Manzardo and give you a, maybe a dose of leadership. You know, he’s been a really great player for a long time. It’s a wild card pick by me, but just kind of an interesting name.
Joe Noga: Yeah. And would the money work there in terms of what he would expect to make? I gotta imagine he, he would come at a significant cost. And they spent $12 million on Carlos Santana last season, but I would imagine Goldschmidt would come in a little bit more than that.
Paul Hoynes: He signed a one year, $12 million deal with the Yankees last year. So Right, right around in that same category.
Joe Noga: Wow. That would, that would. If you got an extra $12 million laying around, I guess let’s go for it. Well, let’s talk a little bit about the. Before we do that, I just got to mention why I said Keith Hernandez there obviously for you know, some of our, our younger listeners who, who am I kidding? Nobody young listens to us talk about the Guardians. Come on. But everybody old enough would, would know we were talking about with Keith Hernandez. Cleveland signed Hernandez to a, a contract back in the, in the 80s and things didn’t go very well. Did they joins?
Paul Hoynes: No, that was. They signed him, Joe. I think I remember we were at the winter meetings and they signed him. I think it was 8089, maybe the same year they got by Erica and they traded Joe Carter for Vierga and Sandy Alomar and it was the Same winter meetings, 89, 90 maybe. And you know he was, you know, he was at, you know that clubhouse present, you know, the leader of the Mets and great player with St. Louis. But he came, you know, but he, Hernandez was at the end of his career in Cleveland and he got hurt. He was, he never played. He got, I think he hurt his, hurt a calf muscle, you know, just couldn’t get on the field. And I think it was a two or three year deal and you know, he, the Guardians did not get the better into that.
Joe Noga: Yeah, it was a two year, $3 million contract that he signed in the 89, December 7, 1989 at the Winter meetings. I, I still have the tops baseball card though. So, you know, it it’s interesting moment there, but yeah, you know, that sort of dovetails into what we wanted to talk about today with the, the Guardians payroll expected to be around what the, the. The same as it was around this time last year was around $100 million. It was sort of the indication we got from Chris Antonetti. But you know, when you’re talking about the money that they have on the books right now in terms of committed dollars isn’t as high as a lot of ball clubs at this time of year.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, they’ve got what, seven guys. They’ve got like just over $40 million, you know, committed to seven players. You know, obviously Jose Ramirez is at the top of that list at 21 million and they owe. They, they still are paying Trevor Stephan 3.5 million. He is on the, the Columbus roster and they’re still paying a miles straw 1 million for the contract. You know, they had the bot. They had to eat some of that contract when they traded him to Toronto. We’ve seen this before Joe, where. So, you know, I think they were probably in the same situation as they were last winter around this time, but they were really pretty active to fill out that payroll. They signed Beaver, they signed Carlos Santana, they signed Jacob Junas and Paul Seewald, made trades for, for, you know, they make Ortiz. Yeah, Ortiz. And, and so you know, they filled out that, that payroll. But I, I would think, you know, so they’ve got some, they’ve got some money to play with. Not a lot but. And, and the rest of the slots on the 26 and the 40 man roster, probably I would. They’ll just fill in with guys making just around or at. At or just over the minimum which is going to be 7, $780,000 this season.
Joe Noga: Yeah, so. So like you said, when they, when they figure out who they’re going to sign in terms of like the guys like Seawald and Junas to sort of fill out the bullpen and you know, maybe a position player here or there, a veteran guy. That’s how it trickles down to what the players, the remaining players on the, the, the, the active roster will get in terms of over the, the major league minimum, slightly over that. You know, depending on maybe how they have them ranked and in terms of their value or formula they use 6.4 million due to Emmanuel Class A this year depending on sort of I guess how the criminal proceedings and the Major League Baseball’s discipline go. Because they could be absolved of that.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, really interesting situation with Class A who is appearing in court in, in New York in the Eastern District of New York today along with Ortiz after being indicted on the gambling charges. You know, from what, from what I’ve been told, you know, depending how the, the criminal char, the criminal case unfolds and then MLB will finish conclude their investigation and you know that would lead to Commissioner, the commissioner making a ruling now if they find that Class A was in violation of the MLB rules and policies regarding gambling or whatever, the guardians would not be on the hook for that 6.4 million. But the thing is Joe, I mean they probably won’t know until spring training and that’s still. Do you spend that 6 million now or you almost have to wait, don’t you?
Joe Noga: Yeah. And that could help you later at the, at the trade deadline. If you want to take on some salary at the trade deadline, that, that could help as well. So. Or I, I don’t know, maybe you, you roll that into, up your offer or whatever to, to Stephen Kwan if you’re sitting across the negotiating table with him. That’s all, you know, something that, that, that could help him could help maybe in that regard as well.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, definitely. If, if that, you know, 6 million, 6.4 million kind of falls in your lap that way you could definitely spread it around or talk to Quan about staying in Cleveland for a few, few more years.
Joe Noga: Yeah. As far as the contracts that they will have on the books, like you said, Jose Ramirez owed $21 million in, in 2026, that goes up. 2027 he gets 23 million. Now 28, he gets 25 million. So really by 2028 he finally starts to scratch the surface of maybe his, his actual value to the, to the ball club at 25 million a year. Tanner Bybee owed 4.4 million next year. And that escalates in the, the, the remaining, you know, three to four years of the, the deal there. You know, Austin hedges on a one year deal, $4 million they’ve got him, you know, very interesting. They’ve already signed Nolan Jones 2 million. David Fry, 1 point. What 1.335 million I think was the, the number 3, 75 and Matt Festa 1 million. You know that those are the amounts that are on the books. That’s, that’s a lot of flexibility if you’re Cleveland in your stated budget is in that, you know, 100 million dollar range. So could be. It’s not like there’s no hope that they’re, that they’re not going to fill out. Every roster gets filled out. Everybody, you know, finds a place so they’re, they’re going to spend that money at some place. It’s just, you know, who are going to be the names that pop up and what’s, what’s this team going to look like when they get to Arizona in February?
Paul Hoynes: Exactly, Joe. I mean, that’s. That, you know, they, they, they do a good, they do a good job of putting a roster together. But, you know, this year you can’t ignore the offense. I mean, they just can’t. Because what happened to them last year, the more you think about that, Joe, the more you, the more it seems impossible. You know, how do you come back from 15 and a half games with, with one of the worst offenses in, in of the season and maybe one of the worst offenses in the franchise history? They came back and not, not only did they catch the Tigers, they beat them on the last day of the season to win the division. I mean, they won the division on the last day of the season. You know, you only get lucky once in life like that, I think. So they really have to. You keep your prospects, keep the prospects you want, but you have to look and take advantage of this pitching staff and Jose Ramirez and Stephen Kwan this season by, by really bolstering this offense. I think you, you got to help it out. Yeah.
Joe Noga: I don’t know how lucky they felt, you know, in maybe July and August when they were, you know, suffering through losing streaks and losing pitchers to gambling scandals. But they certainly worked hard, hard enough to put that run together down through September. And you’re right that that doesn’t happen all that often. I think it was, it’s certainly.
Paul Hoynes: I.
Joe Noga: Can you believe Brian Rocchio hit a walk off home run in extra innings in the final game of the season to give them a division championship? That’s, that’s always going to, to stick with me is Brian Rocchio is the guy who comes out and hits that home run for you. Certainly magical season from that standpoint. All right, Hoinsey, that’s going to wrap up today’s edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. Hopefully we’ll have some movement and some news on Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz at some point tomorrow and we’ll talk to you about it then.