Obviously, we are in a state of transition here, so this seemed like a perfect opportunity for a reset. In the radio business, they tell you that your audience turns over every 15 to 20 minutes, so it is important to circle back to some things that are important. Some of you have read my work before, but some of you are new to the site. In order to make sure we are getting off on the right foot, I decided to take a step back and start from the beginning.
I am calling this feature “In the Lab.” The idea is to look at baseball statistics in a new way so we can help explain what is going on in the games and behind the scenes when executives put teams together. For instance, it is easy to say the Astros don’t score enough runs or that they give up too many runs. Unfortunately, it is isn’t as easy as simply bringing in a player that scores a lot of runs and calling it good. Essentially, we are looking for statistics that will help predict run scoring and run prevention. If those statistics can do both all the better.
I know a lot of people glaze over when they see some of these statistics. The trouble is that we don’t have a frame of reference to know whether something is good or bad. My goal in this space will be to help provide some background of what these numbers are and why they are important. I’ll do that here by providing some league averages and data that will give everyone an idea of what is going on.
The first number in the lab is what I call bases per out. Outs are the blood currency of the sport. Hitters want to avoid them and pitchers want to get them. Bases per out measures the amount of damage hitters get for every out they generate. Naturally, one could do the same with pitchers and we will eventually down the road. We are starting with hitters. I did not develop this stat, but it is not seen on sites like baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs. There are other statisticians that have floated the idea out there and you see slightly different formulas, but I have settled on the one below.
Bases per out = Total Bases + Walks + Hit by pitches + Stolen bases / Total outs
The sticking point is usually the stolen bases. I find this to be a purer form because it includes base running as a part of the formula. So, what we see is a more encompassing stat. I also think it is more accurate because base running kills are included in outs, so it only seems fair to include steals.Bases per out is superior to other more complex stats like OPS because it includes the base element. Unfortunately, it has to be computed by hand, so computing in ballpark effects will be a challenge.
I have done that for over 300 hitters from last season. I have also broken down team data as well. I will be relying on BPO for a series of articles we will use to look at the 2025 Astros and in turn the 2026 Astros as well. Like any other good stat, it serves as a mirror image. A good BPO for hitters will be bad for pitchers and vice versa. The idea is to see how closely BPO reflects run production.
Let’s focus on your Houston Astros. We would agree that their offense wasn’t good enough in 2025 to get them to the playoffs. We usually like to reference numbers when making these kinds of statements. The Astros were 21st in Major League Baseball with 686 runs. They finished one run behind the Washington Nationals for 20th place. Over a 162 game schedule, a difference of one run is statistically negligible. However, this is where these different metrics come in. It might seem simple enough to say, “just score more runs.” It is more instructive to point to the indicators that predict run production.
The problem with focusing on runs is that run scoring by itself is unpredictable from one season to the next. Someone can put up almost identical batting averages, on base percentages, and slugging percentages and score more or less the following season. So, these other numbers we use often are better predictors of future run production than run scoring by itself. Our hope is that BPO will approximate run scoring so that we can use it to predict future results.
The Astros were 19th in team BPO with a .651 BPO. It is important to note that we needed to break a virtual tie between the Astros, Padres, and Orioles. The Astros finished in the middle of those three teams and finished in the middle in runs scored. Note that they were nearly in 20th place in runs scored, so the 19th place finish in BPO would seem to be in line where they finished.
The New York Yankees ran away with the top mark in 2025 with a .771 BPO. They finished first in runs scored. The Pittsburgh Pirates were dead ass last with a .595 BPO. They were dead ass last in runs scored as well. The median (number in the middle) was actually .655 which was not that different from where the Astros finished. That mark belonged to the Marlins. They scored 709 runs on the season. 23 runs over the course of a season actually is not as much as you think. For most statisticians, that usually accounts for a little more than two wins. However, give the Astros two more wins last season and they would have been a wild card team.
One of the issues with the Astros in general is that they did come in a virtual tie with two other teams with that .651 BPO. The Padres and Orioles also finished with a .651. The Orioles scored 677 runs on the season and the Padres scored 702. The Astros aren’t exactly in the middle there, but they are pretty close to the midpoint. I and others have complained about a lack of clutch hitting or situational hitting, but the key appears to be simply getting more bases per out. You get that through increased power and patience. Aiming for the median would seem to be a pretty modest ask.
Looking at numbers like these are important because they are important to teams. They use data to make decisions, so it becomes important to look at the same data they use. I don’t know if they use BPO specifically, but it is similar to the kind of numbers they would use. Next time, we will start breaking the lineup down by looking at the Astros catchers. Since Victor Caratini is a free agent, we also will look at some catchers that could be available and what they bring to the table in terms of BPO. Stay tuened.