Image credit:
Shane Smith (Photo by Ben Hsu/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

It used to be thought that picking a player in the MLB Rule 5 draft could best be described as buying a lottery ticket. Every once in a while you might win big, but more likely, you’re just spending a bit of money you’ll never see again.

Nowadays, that’s not really true. In the 2020s, teams have gotten wiser about how they make Rule 5 picks. And they are reaping the benefits.

Before we dive into the numbers, let’s start by remembering that the 2021 Rule 5 draft was canceled because of the owners’ lockout. So there have only been four Rule 5 drafts so far this decade. And among those four, we’ve yet to have a dud.

From the 2024 Rule 5 draft, the White Sox got excellent seasons from Shane Smith, who fronted their rotation, and Mike Vasil, who was a bullpen workhorse. Liam Hicks was a solid catcher for the Marlins, too. The first pick of the 2023 Rule 5 draft, Mitch Spence, proved to be a valuable member of the A’s rotation while Nasim Nunez, Ryan Fernandez, Justin Slaten and Stephen Kolek have all had their moments, as well.

From the 2022 draft, Ryan Noda and Kevin Kelly have stood out, while the 2020 draft saw Garrett Whitlock, Tyler Wells, Trevor Stephan and Akil Baddoo all contribute to their new teams.

In the 2020s, a full 50% of all Rule 5 draft picks have stuck with their new team. Angel Bastardo from the 2024 Rule 5 draft has yet to fulfill eligibility requirements because of injury, so that number could tick above or below 50% next year. From 2000-2019, there was only one year (2001) in which half of the picks stuck.

And it’s not just that players are making rosters. There have been 12 Rule 5 picks in the 2020s who produced 0.5 bWAR or better in their initial season, good for an average of three per draft. Only seven picks cleared that 0.5 WAR threshold in the 2010s. There were 19 in the 2000s, but it’s worth noting that from 2000-2005, players were Rule 5 eligible one year earlier than they are now, which added to the amount of available talent.

Taking it further, seven Rule 5 picks this decade have produced 1.0 or more bWAR in their Rule 5 season. Only four picks did so in the 2010s, and 11 did so in the 2000s. Five Rule 5 picks have produced 2-plus WAR in their Rule 5 season in the 2020s: Shane Smith, Mike Vasil, Ryan Noda, Akil Baddoo and Garrett Whitlock. Only two (Brad Keller and Odubel Herrera) did so in the 2010s, while only five (Darren O’Day, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla and Andy Sisco) did so in the 2000s.

Here’s a look at the success rates by year, as well as the best pick in each Rule 5 draft of the 2000s.

YearPicksStuckSTICK
PCTBest Pick(S)200010220.0%Jay Gibbons, OF200112650.0%Miguel Ascencio, RHP
Jorge Sosa, RHP2002281139.3%Javier Lopez, LHP
Aquilino Lopez, LHP200320420.0%Chris Shelton, 1B200412325.0%Andy Sisco, LHP200512325.0%Dan Uggla, 2B200619842.1%Josh Hamilton, OF
Joakim Soria, RHP200718316.7%Wesley Wright, LHP200821419.0%Darren O’Day, RHP
Everth Cabrera, SS200917423.5%Carlos Monasterios, RHP201018527.8%Nathan Adcock, RHP201113430.8%Marwin Gonzalez, SS201215533.3%Ryan Pressly, RHP
Hector Rondon, RHP20139333.3%Tommy Kahnle, RHP2014141071.4%Odubel Herrera, 2B
Mark Canha, 1B/OF201515533.3%Joey Rickard, OF201618738.9%Anthony Santander, OF201718633.3%Brad Keller, RHP201814321.4%Brandon Brennan, RHP201911436.4%Yohan Ramirez, RHP2020181055.6%Garrett Whitlock, RHP
Tyler Wells, RHP202215640.0%Ryan Noda, 1B
Kevin Kelly, RHP202310660.0%Mitch Spence, RHP
Stephen Kolek, RHP2024158*53.3%Shane Smith, RHP
Mike Vasil, RHP* Angel Bastardo has stuck for now, but he still has to spend 90 days on the Blue Jays’ active roster before he fulfills Rule 5 eligibility requirements.