Since finishing last season with a bit of chaotic drama, pitching has been an unquestionable strength for the Detroit Tigers in 2025.
The Tigers’ pitching success has been a continuation of the team’s unexpected post-trade deadline breakout in 2024. As the Tigers finished the season on a 31-13 run beginning Aug. 11, the Tigers staff led the majors with a 2.72 ERA, with the next-best Atlanta Braves coming in at 2.87. This all happened, remember, with manager A.J. Hinch juggling a pitching staff that basically consisted of American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and a conga line of relief pitchers that shut down opponents game after game.
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch walks off the field after a pitching change during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Monday, May 19, 2025 in St Louis.
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Thankfully for the Tigers, things look a lot more stable in 2025. The pitching staff has gotten great performances from their five-man rotation, with Skubal looking like Skubal, righty Reese Olson taking a step up in his third year, former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize in the running for Comeback Player of the Year and top prospect Jackson Jobe already with a 4-0 record in his rookie season.
Detroit’s bullpen has been solid, too, with a 3.31 ERA that puts them at seventh in MLB. The relief corps has been getting dynamic performances from righty Will Vest, who is striking out more than a batter per inning and has given up only four earned runs in 21 appearances.
All in all, the Tigers have some of the most effective pitching in baseball, and it’s been a big reason for the team’s MLB-best 32-17 start.
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But the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. And if there’s anything that’s hard to project, it’s how effective a pitching staff will be when the playoffs roll around.
That leaves the Tigers with a burning question as summer approaches: How sustainable is this pitching for the rest of the season?
Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize (12) watches a play against Kansas City Royals from the dugout during the sixth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Thursday, April 17, 2025.
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Arguably the most difficult thing for a team’s front office to project is starting pitching health, and it’s starting to bite the Tigers.
Mize was placed on the 15-day injured list May 10 (retroactive to May 9) with a left hamstring strain. Hinch said the injury was “mild,” with Mize saying the organization is being “a little bit more conservative” with his treatment since its early in the season.
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Perhaps Mize’s injury isn’t that much of a concern, even if he missed two months of the 2024 season with a similar injury. But Olson’s might be a bigger issue.
Olson was placed on the 15-day IL on May 19 with finger inflammation on his pitching hand. The Tigers say they’re not overly concerned with the injury, but hand injuries are more vital than hamstring injuries for a pitcher.
The Tigers also have less starting depth than they expected coming into the season. Right-hander Keider Montero is holding his own in his early-season spot starts, but the Tigers can no longer turn to Kenta Maeda for depth after releasing the veteran on May 1. What’s worse is that starter Alex Cobb, signed in December to a one-year, $15 million deal, is still rehabbing from an injury he suffered in February and hasn’t pitched in a game yet this season, though he has thrown live batting practice to Tigers hitters.
That doesn’t leave the Tigers with many MLB-tested options. The good news is that last year’s “pitching chaos” gives Hinch a lot of experience in managing bullpen games if needed. But if you asked him, he’d probably rather just have five healthy starters.
Tigers pitchers outperforming expectations
Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe (21) delivers a pitch in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver on Wednesday, May 7, 2025.
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Tigers pitchers sported a 3.37 ERA entering their series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 21. That’s not as low as their ERA during last year’s stretch run, but it was still good for sixth-best in MLB.
But ERA isn’t necessarily the best measure of pitching success, past or future, as it relies on defense as well as what a pitcher is doing.
That’s where Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) comes in. Measured like ERA, FIP focuses more heavily on walks, strikeouts and home runs — batting outcomes that a pitcher is theoretically solely responsible for.
And that’s where Tigers’ pitching starts to look a little less impressive. Detroit’s pitchers entered Wednesday with a 3.86 FIP, 14th among 30 MLB teams. The difference between the team’s ERA and FIP is -0.49 runs — 26th in the league, suggesting that Tigers pitchers may be getting better results than they deserve.
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But in another way, Tigers pitchers may be getting unlucky. By expected FIP (xFIP), which tries to take luck out of the equation by normalizing home run rates, Detroit’s starters are the second-best staff in the majors, with a 2.96 xFIP. That could mean that the Tigers are getting unlucky with allowing home runs, which might even out as the season continues.
All of this doesn’t necessarily give the Tigers a middle-of-the-road staff, since what matters is the runs the staff actually gives up instead of the runs it “deserves” to give up. But it’s possible the pitching may regress to its expected value, especially if injuries to starters force more creative pitching solutions.
Tigers still have their ace
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first inning at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.
At over half a run greater than last year, Skubal’s ERA (2.87) suggests some early struggles for the Tigers’ ace. After all, Mize has a better ERA and Olson is hanging right with him.
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But make no mistake: Skubal is the the ace of the staff and may still be the best pitcher in baseball.
By ERA, Skubal is 23rd in the majors among qualified starters, behind starters such as Michael Wacha, David Peterson and Freddy Peralta, pitchers that don’t seem likely to land on many Cy Young award ballots this fall.
But by FIP? Skubal’s 2.20 mark is fourth in the majors, behind only Astros (and former Wayne State) right-hander Hunter Brown (1.92), San Francisco righty Logan Webb (2.08) and Texas righty Nathan Eovaldi (2.19). In fat, Skubal’s FIP is better than that of his 2024 Cy Young season (2.49), which could mean that Skubal is just as good and a lot less lucky so far in 2025.
If we take it even further down the analytics train, Skubal’s xFIP of 2.25 is the best in the majors among qualified starters. Those “expected” numbers take a lot of Statcast mumbo-jumbo into account, but they bear out what’s easier to see live: Skubal is a bona-fide ace, and one of the best pitchers in the world.
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And that may be all the Tigers need to feel confident throughout the summer. Even with a so-so start to 2025 from Jack Flaherty plus IL stints from Mize and Olson, a healthy and productive Skubal could propel this team into the playoffs just like he did last season.
What comes after is anyone’s guess, but as far as questions for the pitching staff go, it’s a good thing for the Tigers’ first answer to be the defending AL Cy Young winner.
You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers starting pitching facing tests of resiliency