Most observers that follow the Houston Astros seem to agree that the most likely outcome with Framber Valdez is that he will leave in free agency. The team absolutely will not admit defeat until he signs somewhere else, but Valdez’s rumored asking price is already well beyond what the Astros would be comfortable with. If re-signing was truly in the cards, the two sides would have already reached a deal by now.
Still, that hasn’t stopped experts from insisting the door is technically still open. Bleacher Report did just that in their recent piece on Plan Bs around MLB this offseason. In that piece, B/R acknowledged that a reunion with Valdez and Houston is unlikely at this point, but they also floated Zac Gallen as a potential fallback plan and fans should have some real concerns if that is actually Houston’s plan.
Zac Gallen should be an option for the Astros, but only if the price is right
On the surface, Gallen seems like he should be a top free agent target. He was a real Cy Young candidate in 2022 and 2023 and Gallen generally misses just enough bats and limits walks enough to put up at least solid numbers every season. Coming off a down year in 2025, this feels like it should be a great buy-low candidate, right?
Well, not exactly. Even coming off a rough season with Arizona, Gallen is still projected to get at least a $20 million AAV over four or five years with his next contract and that is on the low end. There have even been estimates as high as five years, $135 million. Given that he is going to be expensive, would cost Houston a draft pick as Gallen declined the qualifying offer, and he didn’t pitch well last season, the Astros would do well to have a firm and sensible cap on any offer for Gallen.
Again, if Gallen wanted to do a shorter term “make good” deal in order to hit the market next time with (hopefully) a rebound season under his belt and not have to deal with the QO, Houston would be stupid to not be involved. However, it looks like Gallen wants to be paid like a top free agent with more questions than a top free agent would have. If that holds true throughout the offseason, the Astros may need to pass whether Valdez sticks around or not.