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There was a flurry of signings in the week leading up to Winter Meetings. Plus: Ken says Hall of Fame voters have to adapt to the modern game, and we examine “makeup” and how you scout it. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Mets Moves: Devin ‘Airbender’ Williams to the Mets

With Edwin Díaz still a free agent, the Mets made a preemptive insurance move, signing Devin Williams to a three-year deal worth $51 million.

So why would the Mets invest $17 million a year on a guy who posted a 4.79 ERA last year, losing his job as the Yankees’ closer? Well, because these numbers also belong to him:

1.83: ERA from 2019-2024
68/60/10: Total saves/holds/blown saves over those six seasons
0.00: ERA in four postseason innings last October
Top 4 percent: Rank in strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate and opponents’ expected batting average … in 2025

That last one is a reminder: Back-of-the-baseball-card numbers are a blurry lens for viewing relief pitchers. Consider this, from Will Sammon:

💬 “Last season, Williams made 67 appearances and pitched 62 innings, both career bests. He allowed 33 earned runs. The kicker, from his perspective: 16 of them occurred in just five games.”

Williams’ peripheral stats suggest he’s worth the risk the Mets are taking — especially since they’re also hedging another kind of risk: a reunion with Díaz.

Ken’s Notebook: Standards change, and the HOF is no exception

From my latest column:

I remember a conversation I had with my friend and former colleague at the Baltimore Sun, the late Joe Strauss, after the baseball writers elected Kirby Puckett to the Hall of Fame in 2001. Joe, never shy about his opinions, often dispensing them like blunt-force objects, said flatly: “Electing Puckett was a big mistake.”

Puckett’s 12-year career ended prematurely when glaucoma caused him to lose vision in his right eye. He did not play long enough to approach widely accepted Hall standards of 500 homers and 3,000 hits. Joe feared that by electing Puckett, the writers were establishing a dangerous precedent, in effect creating arguments for other players with shorter peaks.

Nowadays, those arguments are becoming more pointed. Certain players, particularly pitchers, do not last as long as they once did, and as performance standards change, voters must recalibrate as well.

My support for Puckett went against my usual tendencies. Generally, I prefer volume when voting for individual awards and the Hall of Fame. Looking back on it, though, Puckett’s election wasn’t a mistake. If anything, the writers might have been ahead of their time.

🖊️ Inked: More free-agent signings

Here’s who has signed where since we last spoke (with a number attached if the player was on our Big Board).

Cedric Mullins (No. 39), Tampa Bay Rays: 1 year, $7 million. Mullins struggled after a mid-season trade to the Mets, but the Rays hope he’ll rebound at age 31. It’s a low-risk signing, anyway.

Emilio Pagán (No. 49), Cincinnati Reds: 2 years, $20 million. Pagán, 34, returns to the Reds, where he logged 32 saves last year, more than any NL reliever not named Robert Suárez.

Miguel Rojas, Los Angeles Dodgers: 1 year, $5.5 million. In likely his last season before retirement, Rojas will return to the team for which he was a World Series star last year.

Cody Ponce, Toronto Blue Jays: 3 years, $30 million. Ponce, 31, last pitched in MLB in 2021, but over the last four years (three in Japan, one in Korea) he transformed from “just a guy” to the 2025 KBO MVP.

Alek Manoah, Los Angeles Angels: 1 year, $1.95 million. The Angels acquired Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah, but neither of them pitched in the big leagues in 2025 as they recovered from injury.

Intangibles: What does it mean to scout makeup?

In the age of spin rate, seam-shifted wake and batting stance leaderboards, there’s still one aspect of scouting that even the most data-driven of execs can’t fully quantify. In sports, we call it “makeup” — a player’s personality, and how that personality impacts his or her on-field performance.

Another word you used to hear more often: “intangibles.” I like that one, because it truly relies more on psychology than physiology. Two different scouts might come away from the same interaction with two completely different notebooks, depending on their interpretation of a player’s body language, emotions and interactions with coaches and teammates.

It’s a practice fraught with bias-potholes. Read more from Eno Sarris and Chandler Rome here.

Handshakes and High Fives

This is so nerdy in the best way. Jayson Stark examines an increasingly endangered species — the extra-base hit — and asks: Does baseball need to intervene to save the doubles and triples?

Among potential suitors for top free agent Kyle Tucker? The Blue Jays. Tucker visited their complex in Florida on Wednesday.

The trial dates of Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz are now set: Jury selection begins May 4.

On the pods: Will Sammon and Matt Gelb join Starkville this week to talk about the NL East through the lens of the Mets and Phillies offseasons.

Most-clicked in Monday’s newsletter: Rob Manfred’s comments about prop betting.

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