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In this tier: teams that won’t cause a stir in free agency.

30. Colorado Rockies
Final 2025 Payroll: $124 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $97 million

Every now and then, the Rockies come out of the woodwork and hand out a major free-agent deal. They’ve done a couple just within the last decade, most notably a seven-year, $182 million deal with Kris Bryant.

As with most gambles they have made, though, that deal has been a huge bust. And if their hiring of Paul DePodesta tells us anything, it’s that the organization knows it needs to try something different after three straight 100-loss seasons.

29. Washington Nationals
Final 2025 Payroll: $118 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $93 million

The Nationals used to be a big spender, at one point ranking fourth in MLB with their Opening Day payroll for the 2019 season. And from that experience, they should know that spending and winning are not strange bedfellows.

That was a long time ago, though. They are now something of a rudderless ship under the Lerner family. It’s Paul Toboni’s job to get things going in some kind of direction, and it doesn’t sound like he’s interested in jacking up payroll after five straight seasons of 90-plus losses.

28. Minnesota Twins
Final 2025 Payroll: $136 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $96 million

The Twins are only a couple months removed from detonating their roster at the trade deadline. If they want to win back an understandably jaded fanbase, arguably the best thing they can do now is reinvest their savings into the roster.

Fat chance, though. The Twins ostensibly have the flexibility to spend in free agency, yet most of the buzz this winter has concerned them possibly subtracting even more parts, such as Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo López.

27. St. Louis Cardinals
Final 2025 Payroll: $144 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $108 million

The Cardinals were a reliable mid-tier spender for a long time, and that occasionally involved dipping into free agency for a high-priced star such as Dexter Fowler, Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray.

Yet with the Chaim Bloom era having begun, Gray is already gone and Contreras and Nolan Arenado are candidates to go next. There will come a day when all that payroll space is filled back up, but it won’t be this winter. There’s too much rebuilding to do.

26. Athletics
Final 2025 Payroll: $79 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $75 million

The A’s pulled a fast one on everyone last year, signing Luis Severino to a club-record $67 million deal and also nailing down extensions for Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Might they pull yet another sneak attack this winter?

Well, there has been talk of a payroll increase, but the A’s could technically pull that off with just a $5 million free-agent deal. With their temporary home not drawing fans and their future home experiencing a financial downturn, you have to think caution is the name of the game.

25. Chicago White Sox
Final 2025 Payroll: $85 million
Estimated 2026 Payroll: $69 million

White Sox GM Chris Getz hinted early on that he wouldn’t be making any free-agent signings for more than one year. It counts as a nice surprise, then, that he’s the one who inked left-hander Anthony Kay to a two-year, $12 million deal on Wednesday.

With daylight still between the Pale Hose’s 2025 and 2026 payrolls, perhaps there will be more where that came from. But with the club still in the early stages of a rebuild, it’s not exactly easy to count on it, either.