I’m not buying it.
I’ve seen the recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggesting that Minnesota Twins superstar Byron Buxton could be willing to waive his no-trade clause, and how that has led many to accept that their favorite Twin is a goner. Don’t get me wrong, I’m furiously knocking on wood as I write this. But the idea that the club would move its franchise cornerstone at this point still feels like a long shot to me, and it seems even less likely after Ken Rosenthal reported they’ll keep their stars.
Are Minnesota’s decision makers shortsighted enough to accept the dire ramifications of such a move? I’m not sure that’s for me to say. But what I do know is that their outlook for the next few years would depend on affordable superstar talent, which is exactly what Buxton brings to the table. Their asking price would be exorbitant, further complicating the decision.
And for these reasons, I’m predicting something that should come as a refreshing take for Twins fans.
Byron Buxton isn’t going anywhere this winter.
There’s no getting around the fact that the present moment is a difficult time to be a Twins follower. The last two campaigns have ended with dreadful second halves, including a back-breaking fire sale at the trade deadline this past July. Those developments, combined with the ongoing speculation that spending will be down again going into 2026, have sent Twins Territory into a deserved panic, or even worse, apathy toward the club.
But even if they were to slash their current payroll in an effort to improve the bottom line over the next few years, trading Byron Buxton away would do more harm than good. They’d be “saving” $45 million over the next three years, but losing exponentially more by losing a generation of once-loyal fans.
Ultimately, $15 million per year is a steal for a beloved icon player that still provides a triple threat when he’s healthy. That should be a price that they’re happy to pay, not desperate to unload.
You think morale is bad right now? Imagine the smoldering crater of fan enthusiasm over the next few seasons if they trade their biggest draw for ticket buyers. You can’t smack the fans in the face and then expect them to come back for more after going through the bitter heartbreak they’ve experienced over the last two years. They couldn’t survive that blowback, and the Pohlad family won’t want to if they hope to sell the team in the near future, which should remain the assumption.
As a side note, a little birdy tells me the new minority owners of the club are set to be announced by the end of next week, which might improve the outlook of their short-term spending if all goes well. That isn’t a certainty, but it could paint a rosier picture than the deal falling through, leaving the Pohlads with their lofty interest payments on their loans.
With the looming threat of a significant lockout in 2027, all teams will need to put their best foot forward to get fans back. A shortened, or even cancelled, season in 2027 will cause serious consternation among fans, bruising their trust in the game and requiring major damage control. The best way the Twins would be able to get butts back into the seats is to have at least one established superstar to pair with their young up-and-coming talent.
Speaking of prospect capital, the asking price the Twins would require in a Buxton trade would need to be superstar-level prospects who are ready for the big leagues and can serve as a clearly defined new foundation for the next generation of the club. Is another team going to want to take that chance and trade away a package of franchise-altering prospects for Buxton, who has been undoubtedly great, but still carries injury risk as he heads into his early-30s, all the while being expected to take on his entire salary? That match in needs and requirements between the Twins and this hypothetical trade partner seems far-fetched to me at this point.
Ultimately, it’s easy to feel like the Twins are currently riding a sinking ship, at least in terms of morale and overall vibes. They’re taking on too much water aboard the vessel. Some might call that water salary, others might just call it bad play on the field. Either way, it signals that they can’t win the race while carrying this much weight.
We’ve seen them throw bodies off in an effort to thwart the sinking. But doing that with Byron Buxton would be throwing overboard your best mate who has the biggest bucket. He’s the guy who is going to do the most to get you out of this mess.
As much as they want to alleviate the massive weight that is sinking their ship, the Twins can’t afford to lose him right now, and I think they know that.