The Minnesota Twins must see an improvement in their offense in order to have a chance at being competitive in 2026. The team has an obvious need for a right-handed, impact bat with first base and designated hitter as the most obvious positions where that addition could be added to the roster. Could free agent Paul Goldschmidt make sense for the Twins?

Earlier in his career, Goldschmidt was a constant in All-Star and MVP conversations. He won the MVP award in the National League in 2022 while he was with the St. Louis Cardinals. Since 2022, Goldschmidt has not played anywhere near that MVP form, with a significant decline across many statistical categories. 

Even with that decline in performance, Goldschmidt looks like he would be a passable everyday player in Minnesota based on the traditional stats we look toward to measure production. With the Yankees in 2025, Goldschmidt slashed .274/.328/.403 with a .731 OPS. In 2025, Twins first basemen as a collective slashed .231/.304/.383 with a .687 OPS. With Kody Clemens currently the front runner for time at first base in 2026, a combination of Clemens and Goldschmidt looks intriguing when we simply look at the stats laid out above. 

A closer look reveals plenty of reasons to grow concerned about the 38-year-old. Often, when we look at batters and try to gauge where they are headed, bat speed is an important indicator. Goldschmidt, in the three years of data we have on swing speed, saw an increase in bat speed from 2023. An increase in bat speed is good, but what came with it may not be. With that increased speed, Goldschmidt, especially in 2025, began to swing under the ball more than ever. 

In 2024, Goldschmidt’s under% according to Statcast was 22.0% and rose to 27.1% last season. Subsequently, his flyball rate increased over the same time frame from 56.3% to 61.1%. The increase in flyball rate isn’t necessarily a concern in and of itself, as Goldschmidt has had similar flyball rates in some of his more productive seasons. The flyballs, combined with where the ball is being contacted, seem to have decreased much of Goldschmidt’s power.  

Year by year, since his MVP season, Goldschmidt has seen a decline in several secondary stats that indicate potential power output. 

 

xSLG

xwOBA

Barrel %

2023

0.447

0.367

12

2024

0.414

0.329

10.7

2025

0.403

0.328

7.9

By looking at expected stats, we eliminate the possibility that Goldschmidt has simply had bad luck. Instead, his reduction in production and power truly seems to be a product of a true decline. While in the Twins’ recent past, the club has found success in signing aging sluggers such as Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome , Goldschmidt does not seem to be aging as gracefully. 

The production may level off and be similar in 2026 as it was in 2025, but at what cost for Goldschmidt’s next team, and is that cost worth it for the Twins? It seems unlikely that it would be wise for the Twins to go in the direction of Goldschmidt, even as desperate as they are for offensive production. The Twins will need to find treasure this offseason, but a Goldschmidt signing has a good chance of turning up fool’s gold.