Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Padres and the Miami Marlins could make sense in a trade as San Diego attempts to bolster their pitching staff. 

The San Diego Padres should find a way to trade for former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.

The price will be hefty in cost, and it may be too costly in regard to the payroll, but it may be worth it.

Alcantara, coming off his first year post Tommy John surgery, did not have a great first half of the season but returned to form in the second half of 2025.

Pre all-star break, Alcantara threw for a 7.22 ERA in 91 innings but managed a 3.33 clip in the second half in 83.2 innings pitched. Although he finished the season with a 5.36 ERA, there is a lot of evidence to show that Alcantara’s primed to return to form next season.

Many of the changes that are needed for Alcantara to return to a Cy Young contender have already been made.

In 2023 and the first half of 2025, Alcantara went away from what made him successful in 2022 when he won the N.L. Cy Young Award. Alcantara dominated in 2022 by throwing changeups more than any other pitch, which batters only got hits at a .146 clip against. He also only threw 11 curveballs that season, but his repertoire flipped in the next two seasons he pitched.

In 2025, Alcantara threw over 200 fewer changeups and increased the usage of his curveballs by over 500 pitches.

Alcantara’s four-seam fastball was thrown over 300 times less, and his sinker became his most-used pitch. Alcantara, although being a power pitcher, is a groundball pitcher, and playing to this strength gets him his best results and allows him to be the workhorse he has proven himself to be. In the second half of 2025, Alcantara increased his changeup usage and was able to lower his WHIP from 1.48 in the first half to 1.04 in the second half.

Something that will naturally help Alcantara is more time recovered from his Tommy John surgery. Time is needed to get his feel back and control of the strike zone, and after having a season under his belt post-surgery, Alcantara can be expected to improve this part of his game.

(AP Photo/Mike Carlson, File)

Park factor would also play in his favor as Loan Depot Park ranks 8th in baseball over the last three years compared to the 25th-ranked Petco Park.

A large part of that comes in doubles and triples, which are harder to get in San Diego. That can be credited greatly to the defensive abilities of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, manning the Padres outfield. Fielding is something that stands to benefit Alcantara, as he had a 4.28 FIP in Miami, which could speak to a lot of bad luck, considering it is over a run lower than his ERA. These factors, along with the work of pitching coach Ruben Niebla, will benefit Alcantara. The vision is very clear.

The Padres’ farm system is not as flush with talent as it previously was, but San Diego could trade from their MLB roster.

Jake Cronenworth is a player who has been talked about a lot recently as a potential trade chip. Jeff Passan noted in a trade article that the Marlins are a team that could be a potential suitor for Cronenworth. The infielder’s contract is a very affordable $11.428 million AAV. Where this could be mutually beneficial is in the fact that, although Alcantara’s payroll hit for 2026 is $17.3 million (and $21 million on a club option for 2027), his AAV is an equal $11.2 million. In luxury tax terms, a one-for-one swap actually saves the Padres a couple of hundred thousand dollars. 

That being said, a one-for-one swap is not feasible, and the Padres would have to give up prospects as well. The Marlins would probably look in the position player group, perhaps looking at a Tirso Ornelas or maybe a Luis Campusano to add to their very young but promising team, and possibly add some relief prospects as well. Cronenworth would be a leader for the Marlins clubhouse that would be needed, considering how young the team is right now.

The Padres can add a huge arm to help anchor the rotation. With the financial aspect being close to a wash in luxury tax terms (although the team has had issues in the past with cash value), this could allow the team to buy low on starting pitching options and also for the right side of their infield, as they would have to replace Cronenworth and still shop for a first base option. 

Sandy Alcantara is a name that will be looked at all offseason as a huge trade piece, especially for teams that may not be in on all the starting pitching options in free agency.

The Padres have made several deals with the Marlins in the past few seasons, and they would be smart to do it again. Alcantara is a pitcher with elite stuff who has shown he can be an ace and manage a large workload of innings. He is the perfect piece for the Padres from a skill level and the potential to have an extra year of control as well. There is also flexibility to let him walk in free agency with a potential lockout coming next offseason. This team has to strike while the iron is hot, and Alcantara could be that missing piece.

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