It’s been a predictably quiet start to the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, but that could begin to change next week as the baseball world convenes in Orlando for MLB’s annual Winter Meetings.
If nothing else, Tuesday is the amateur draft lottery, in which the Twins have the second-highest odds (a 22.18 percent chance, just behind the Chicago White Sox) of landing the No. 1 pick, and Wednesday is the Rule 5 draft, in which the Twins hold the No. 4 selection.
Let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your minds about a team stuck in a holding pattern five weeks after the final out of the World Series.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Do you see a realistic path for the Twins to be competitive next season? Do you see the Twins actually trying to compete? — Tony K.
Those are two very different questions.
“Competitive” is subjective, but I absolutely think the Twins are capable of being .500 or better in 2026. However, that would likely require not trading Byron Buxton, Pablo López, Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers and adding multiple late-inning relievers and at least one middle-of-the-order hitter.
But that approach — avoiding further subtractions and making substantial additions — seems unlikely given the actions of ownership and the front office since the end of the 2023 season. If the primary goal for 2026 is a winning record, they could get there. But it seems not to be.
What would be a realistic return in a Buxton trade? — Prestin D.
If they trade Ryan, what do you think the haul would be? — A.D.
Is there big trade value for López beyond dumping salary? — Paul N.
Those are just a few of the many questions submitted about the trade value of various Twins players, which is understandable considering the ongoing speculation swirling around Ryan, López, Buxton and others.
Rather than give a bunch of quick-hit answers here, I’ll point to my annual Twins future value big board, published in late October, which ranks their top 20 players by trade value. That covered major leaguers and prospects, factoring in age, upside, team control and cost for a big-picture view.
Short version: Of the Ryan-López-Buxton trio, I’d expect Ryan to have the most trade value, followed by Buxton and then López. One caveat is Buxton having the ability to block trades could lessen his value by limiting the pool of teams. All three players would have significant trade value. (Sigh.)
He’s got Gold. He’s got Platinum.
It was only right he added some Silver!!! pic.twitter.com/bxSvB3o3OT
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) November 7, 2025
Derek Falvey has said he wants to add to the current roster, but there are still reports they’re looking at trading core players. Will the narrative keep spinning? — Daniel P.
I have no doubt Falvey would prefer to add, not subtract, from the current roster. He has said that repeatedly, in response to questions about the payroll and overall direction of the team. But the front office won’t be able to add, and may feel pressured to subtract, if ownership is cutting payroll again.
The Twins’ payroll is around $95 million, which is 23rd in MLB. Even returning to the same $135 million range as 2024 and 2025 would be plenty of spending room to add some pieces needed to be competitive. But they seem headed for a much lower number, and that has consequences.
Derek Shelton over/under 3 1/2 ejections this season? — Scott H.
Shelton’s ejection history is interesting. He averaged 3.47 ejections per 162 games managing the Pittsburgh Pirates, so 3 1/2 is probably a pretty good over/under line. Those totals include either three or four ejections in each of his four full seasons at the helm.
However, he was ejected zero times in the 38 games he managed in 2025 before being fired by the Pirates, perhaps suggesting Shelton matured or maybe just ran out of fighting energy in a difficult situation. Either way, I’ll take the under on 3 1/2 ejections in 2026.
Rocco Baldelli averaged 3.14 ejections per 162 games managing the Twins, although they increased with experience. He was ejected at least four times in three of his last four seasons. One reliable predictor of a Baldelli ejection was when he started talking with his hands to umpires. That was game on.
Pirates manager Derek Shelton was ejected by home plate umpire John Tumpane after it appeared that Tumpane called ball four a strike on Jack Suwinski pic.twitter.com/C8CsTuEq90
— SNY (@SNYtv) July 6, 2024
Which prospect do you expect to see called up by the Twins first: Walker Jenkins or Kaelen Culpepper? — Matt B.
Jenkins. He’s the more highly touted prospect and finished last season at Triple-A St. Paul, whereas Culpepper was at Double-A Wichita.
With that said, even the best prospects are often called up to the majors for the first time because of injuries to other players or various circumstances beyond their control, rather than their own performance or some mapped-out arrival timeline.
For instance, when the Twins lost multiple infielders to injuries in short succession in April, they called up Luke Keaschall for his MLB debut despite the then-22-year-old not hitting notably well in limited action for the Saints and not being fully recovered from elbow surgery. It was a need-based call-up.
Jenkins will start 2026 a half-step ahead of Culpepper in terms of a call-up ETA, but those schedules can change in a hurry. Bigger picture, if Jenkins and Culpepper are healthy and performing well, both will be on track to reach the majors at some point in 2026, along with Emmanuel Rodriguez.
It’s not looking like the Twins will be contenders in 2026. So what would a successful season look like to give you some optimism about the direction of the franchise? (Beyond a sale/change in ownership.) — Jeremy H.
Your parenthetical ruined my easy answer of the Pohlads selling the team.
Short of that, I’d say a reversal of the negative trend in player development, specifically with hitters. Regardless of which billionaires own the team and how much money they give the front office to spend, the Twins aren’t going to win without turning promising young hitters into good veteran hitters.
Over the past two seasons, nearly every young Twins hitter took a step(s) backward, to the point that several dropped out of the team’s plans entirely and several others are hanging on by a thread. That has to change with the hugely talented next wave of Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Culpepper.
Couldn’t some of the Twins’ roster decisions thus far (specifically keeping Justin Topa and Trevor Larnach) be interpreted as signs the payroll won’t be slashed? Neither decision makes much sense for an organization whose sole focus is penny pinching. — Charlie R.
I think you’re viewing the situation backwards.
Filling a bullpen spot with Topa for $1.225 million and filling a lineup spot with Larnach for $4.7 million, though certainly reasonable enough moves on their own, are also ways to keep payroll down compared to what upgrades would cost via free agency or trades.
Topa makes barely more than the $780,000 minimum salary. Larnach could be replaced by a minimum-salaried hitter, so in that sense, he costs an extra $4 million, but that wouldn’t buy much on the free-agent corner outfielder/designated hitter market, and he might be traded soon anyway.
Similarly, if the Twins go forward with minimum-salaried journeyman Kody Clemens as the starting first baseman — as Falvey has seemingly hinted — that would save them a significant chunk of money compared to what more proven starting-caliber first basemen would cost in free agency.
Even trading for Alex Jackson as the new backup catcher could be viewed as a cost-saving measure. He’s projected to get $1.8 million via arbitration, which is roughly half the going rate via free agency for a light-hitting, good-fielding veteran backup catcher.
What are the odds the front office extends Jeffers? — Jay B.
Dan Hayes wrote about Jeffers earlier this week and got into the catcher’s status heading into his final season before free agency. It’s worth reading.
I’ll add this: It’s been nearly three years — 35 months, to be exact — since the Twins acquired a player making more than $7 million or signed a player to a multiyear contract. I wouldn’t anticipate a 29-year-old impending free-agent catcher being the one to snap the front office’s non-spending streak.
Spend a day in the life with Ryan Jeffers! pic.twitter.com/wy0SAYwYHs
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) March 9, 2025
Please ask Falvey what the Twins’ plan is from the business side to sell tickets for the 2026 season? — John S.
Falvey was asked that question during his end-of-season press conference. In fact, he was asked that multiple times, because the person asking wasn’t satisfied with the initial answer. And the team president’s follow-up reply started with: “I’m probably going to rehash a little of what I just said.”
Falvey largely danced around the topic, repeatedly saying Target Field is a great place to watch baseball and the Twins need to win more games. Both things are true, of course, but that’s nothing new. And it doesn’t address the deeper, underlying issues also causing fan morale to plummet recently.
As an aside: Falvey and other Twins officials are being asked the questions fans want them to be asked. And if their answers aren’t straightforward or satisfying, they’re being asked again. For example, Falvey has been asked about the 2026 payroll at least four times since the 2025 season ended.
But no one can be forced to give an insightful, candid answer, no matter how many times a question is asked. That applies to payroll, the ownership situation, trades of more core players, poor player development, sinking fan morale and other “hard” questions. They’re being asked, over and over.
I’ve always appreciated your willingness to call it as you see it. However, the situation is so bleak I find myself less likely to read or listen because I know the tone will be negative. Do you consider your role in greater Twins discourse and ever think an injection of optimism is needed? — Eric T.
My job is to write and say what I see, hear and think about the Twins.
When things are going poorly for the team, that probably comes across as negative and pessimistic. But to “inject” optimism when it’s not warranted is really just spin, and that’s antithetical to how I approach this job and how I’ve built an audience for more than two decades.
I’d never blame anyone for consuming less content about a bad team, just as I’d never blame anyone for eating less often at a restaurant serving bad food. I’d rather write and talk about good food. But that’s on the restaurant, because I’m going to tell you how it tastes — to me — no matter what.
I’ll also note that my audience has never been larger, both in terms of The Athletic’s readership and “Gleeman and The Geek’s” listenership. And that’s clearly not because the Twins have gotten more successful and interesting. I’d like to think it’s because I’m not trying to tell you bad food tastes good.