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The return of Joe Musgrove will be huge for the 2026 San Diego Padres season.
Heading into the 2026 season, the Padres’ starting pitching rotation has a plethora of question marks.
However, one name that may be flying under the radar is Joe Musgrove.
Central to this is whether or not “Java Joe,” the East County native, can return to pre-injury form. Can Musgrove return to his former numbers and dominate the NL? Will Musgrove provide top-of-the-rotation numbers, or will he falter? While there is no objective way to answer this in December of 2025, there is some empirical data that may assist in implications.
Musgrove began his career in Houston, making his way to Pittsburgh for three years before landing in San Diego in 2021 in a blockbuster trade for the quickly emerging Pete Seidler-owned Padres. Musgrove broke out in 2021, posting a then-career best 3.18 ERA across 32 starts, and it was clear that the Padres had landed their ace of the future in the then 29-year-old. Musgrove notably threw the first-ever no-hitter in Padres’ history that same season and earned himself a five-year extension signed in 2022.
The last few seasons have been riddled by injury struggles for Musgrove. In 2023, the right-handed pitcher started with a record of 10-3 in 17 starts before he was placed on the IL with right shoulder capsule inflammation. That implicates an inflamed shoulder joint, causing tightness and restricted range of motion. It is relevant to analyze not the injury itself, however, but rather how Musgrove bounced back after an injury.
Joe Musgrove returned in 2024, almost nine months after his season-ending injury in July of 2023, and struggled heavily. In 10 starts, Musgrove recorded an ERA of 5.66 with just 44 strikeouts, compiling a 3-4 record before going down with another arm injury. This time, it was a bone spur that kept Musgrove out for a little over two months.
After a rocky start to the season and coming off the right shoulder capsule inflammation injury, Musgrove appeared to be rejuvenated and looked like his old self after the 60-day IL stint for the elbow bone spurs. It’s worth highlighting that bone spurs in the elbow are frequently the result of overuse, and proper rest, along with conservative treatment, is often essential for full recovery. In Musgrove’s case, it appears he may have returned too soon. After missing nine months of professional pitching, jumping straight back into the rotation likely placed excessive stress on his throwing arm.
That subsequent 60-day IL stint, however, proved transformative. When Musgrove returned in mid-August, he was a completely different pitcher, posting a sparkling 1.66 ERA through the rest of August, followed by a 2.51 ERA in September; ace-level dominance.
The bigger lesson here echoes a pattern seen with many elite athletes, in that the temptation to rush back can be costly. In his first attempt, Musgrove looked like a fringe rotation arm at best. But with two additional months of healing and rest, he reclaimed the form that had made him San Diego’s undisputed ace. Patience, it seems, was the final piece of the puzzle.
Credit: Padres
Now fast-forward to the 2024 playoffs, and Musgrove faced a far more serious setback, a torn UCL in a game against the Braves. Unlike the earlier bone spur and inflammation issues, a UCL tear typically requires Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehabilitation process. Musgrove underwent the procedure shortly after the October 2024 injury and, as expected, missed the entire 2025 season.
For MLB pitchers, the standard Tommy John recovery timeline is typically 12–14 months. That puts Musgrove on track for full clearance between November 2025 and January 2026, right on time for preparing and gearing up for spring training. With an additional 1–2 months of ramp-up time before Opening Day 2026, Musgrove should have ample opportunity to rebuild arm strength, address any lingering soreness, and enter the season without the rushed timeline that plagued his previous comeback.
One likely precaution for the Padres will be easing Musgrove back in, probably with an innings or pitch-count limit early in 2026, even with the extended recovery window. Done right, this measured approach could finally allow Musgrove to return to the mound as the dominant ace San Diego has been waiting for.
As Musgrove continues to showcase his recovery and rehab program on social media, Padres fans should be encouraged to see him coming along nicely in the recovery process. One question will be whether or not Musgrove will be able to sustain the same velocity he has utilized in years past. Musgrove, while not necessarily known for his velocity, has had a significant correlation in greater success with higher velocity.
While a Tommy John procedure and its subsequent recovery are very unique and often present unpredictable results and reactions, based on his prior injury recoveries, it seems clear that Musgrove absolutely can return to a top-of-the-rotation asset for a Padres team that so dearly needs it. Musgrove’s success and return to form are increasingly imperative to the Padres’ success in 2026, barring any massive starting pitching acquisitions by San Diego. With Yu Darvish out and Dylan Cease and quite possibly Michael King gone, the Padres will need their hometown ace to be an ace.
Billy has spent a majority of his life following San Diego sports and worked in San Diego for many years. Now residing in Newport Beach he recently obtained his Juris Doctorate degree from Chapman University and now works as an Associate Personal Injury Attorney. Billy enjoys supporting the Padres and SDFC from Orange County and making the drive down for big games. He is passionate about analytics and writing about sports.
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