Tuesday is a big day for the Minnesota Twins. That’s when the MLB Draft Lottery takes place at the league’s annual winter meetings, which are in Orlando this year. At around 4:30 p.m. central time, ping pong balls will be drawn to determine the top of the 2026 draft order.
The Twins have a chance to end up with the first overall pick for the third time this century. The White Sox have the best odds to land the top pick (27.7 percent), but the Twins are second at 22.2 percent. The Pirates are at 16.8 percent, and everyone else in the lottery is below 10.
The lottery will determine the first six spots in the draft order. The Twins will likely end up somewhere in that top six, and the lowest they can theoretically pick is eighth.
How’d the Twins’ odds to pick first get so good? Minnesota finished with the fourth-worst record in baseball this past season (70-92), but two of the three teams below them — the Rockies and Nationals — are ineligible for the lottery due to MLB’s anti-tanking rules. Those teams will pick no better than 10th and 11th.
This is the fourth year of the draft lottery. The Twins have been big winners in it before, specifically when they went from 13th up to 5th in the 2023 draft and got to select Walker Jenkins, who is now their top prospect and a borderline top-10 prospect in the sport.
This century, the Twins have picked first overall in 2001 (Joe Mauer) and 2017 (Royce Lewis). They also picked second in 2012 (Byron Buxton).
Who are the draft’s top prospects?
Tuesday’s draft lottery determines the order of the 2026 draft, which isn’t until July 12 of next year. There’s still a full college baseball season to be played before then, but as of now, the top draft prospects are headlined by a group of shortstops.
The expected prize for the team that lands the No. 1 overall pick is UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky, who hit .353 with 23 home runs and a 1.190 OPS last season in his second year with the Bruins. “He might be the best all-around college shortstop prospect since Troy Tulowitzki came out of Long Beach State in 2005,” wrote MLB analyst Jonathan Mayo.
If the Twins land the second pick, they might end up choosing one of the other shortstops. Texas high schooler Grady Emerson, Florida high schooler Jacob Lombard, and Alabama’s Justin Lebron are among the other prospects projected to go in the top five right now. Further down the list, some outfielders and pitchers start to come into play. But again, there’s a long way to go.
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