The stunning postseason collapse of Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase last year has taken on an even darker dimension in light of recent gambling allegations, and the numbers paint a disturbing picture that defies explanation.
In Monday’s episode of “Today in Ohio,” the news podcast from cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer, hosts Chris Quinn and Leila Atassi broke down a statistical deep-dive that reporter Rich Exner conducted to determine if Clase’s playoff implosion could be explained by conventional baseball factors.
“Did he throw the playoffs for gamblers? We asked reporter Rich Exner to examine every statistic he could, and he came back, Leila, with some fascinating findings,” Quinn said.
They revealed a transformation so extreme it bordered on statistical impossibility. As Atassi explained, “Classe went from a 0.61 earned run average in the regular season, so basically unhittable in the regular season, to a 9.0 ERA in the postseason. His walks and hits per inning more than doubled. He gave up three home runs in the playoffs after allowing just two all season.”
Exner systematically eliminated all the usual baseball explanations. Was it fatigue? No – Clase was actually at his dominant best in September, getting stronger as the season wore on. Was it superior competition? Hardly – Clase had dominated the league’s best lineups all season, only to suddenly falter against even mediocre teams like Detroit in October.
Perhaps most telling was Clase’s performance when he fell behind in the count during the playoffs. As Atassi detailed, “After getting behind in the count 1-0, which he did slightly more often in the postseason, hitters suddenly crushed him… In September, those situations barely hurt him. In October, they become total disasters.”
The shocking turnaround comes into sharper focus given recent allegations that Clase had already established relationships with gamblers. As Quinn pointed out on the podcast, “The charges say he started taking money from gamblers to throw bad pitches a year before, in 2023. So the relationship was already there.”
While the statistical analysis doesn’t prove any wrongdoing, it certainly doesn’t provide any innocent explanation either. “The numbers don’t prove anything nefarious,” Atassi acknowledged on the podcast, “but they do show a collapse so extreme and so out of character for Clase that it defies almost every explanation that baseball usually gives us.”
If Clase makes a plea deal with prosecutors, Quinn said he hopes it requires Clase to disclose everything, including any information about his playoff failures.
“I hope the prosecutors read Rich’s story and get Clase to come clean on everything if they make a deal. There should be no deal without a complete proffer of anything he did. And if he threw that series, the fans deserve to know, because that would be an incredible stain on baseball.”
Fans had high hopes for the guardians post-season in 2024, as the team had been terrific during the regular season. And then they lost to the hated Yankees.
“If you’re a fan trying to make sense of this, the takeaway is either this was one of the most statistically bizarre postseason meltdowns we’ve ever seen, or there was something going on that the numbers alone can’t reveal.”
Listen to full “Today in Ohio” episodes where Chris Quinn hosts our daily half-hour news podcast, with Editorial Board member Lisa Garvin, Impact Editor Leila Atassi and Content Director Laura Johnston.