ORLANDO, Fla. — The Padres arrived at the winter meetings having established the level at which they plan to spend in 2026.
It should be a familiar number.
“We anticipate payroll will remain at a similar level to last year,” Padres chairman John Seidler said Monday. “… We’re operating the club as we have for the last five or six years.”
Seidler’s assertion was consistent with what sources have said throughout the offseason — that the looming sale of the team will not affect ownership’s investment in the club.
That means the Padres plan to again have a payroll that ranks among the top 10 in Major League Baseball in 2026 and are virtually guaranteed to pass the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and pay the corresponding penalty for the second consecutive season and the fifth time in six years.
Last year’s $224 million payroll, which included bonuses and CBT penalties, ranked eighth in MLB. It was the second-highest payroll in franchise history, behind only the estimated $295 million the Padres doled out in 2023. That expenditure left them out of compliance with MLB’s debt rules.
Both relative to their history and to the rest of MLB, the Padres have spent at a high level for five consecutive years.
According to figures provided by the Padres and MLB, San Diego is the smallest media market in the league based on number of households. Yet they have had an average payroll of $222 million since 2021. The Padres are one of seven teams to have passed the CBT threshold in at least three of the four years under the current collective bargaining agreement.
Their average payroll from 2015 through ‘19 was $96 million. Their average from 2010 to ‘14 was $61 million. Their payroll ranked higher than 25th just twice in those 10 years (17th in 2016 and 20th in 2019).
The only two years since 2020 that the Padres have not made the postseason were ‘23 and ‘21, when their payroll was the eighth highest in the majors.
They will in 2026 be attempting a franchise first — to make the playoffs for a third consecutive season.
To do so, their offseason work almost certainly must include the acquisition of at least two veteran starting pitchers.
As of now, it appears they will return eight regular position players and the bulk of what was arguably the league’s best bullpen. But they have just three established starting pitchers.
“Like every year, we have some holes to fill,” Seidler said. “And A.J. is scouring the market looking for what is the best way to field the most competitive roster.”
As of Monday, the Padres were not among the teams generating the most buzz in the lobbies of the two Walt Disney World hotels where this year’s winter meetings are being held.
But if the Padres are not involved in a big move here, it won’t be for lack of conversations.
Preller was described by multiple people as frenetically working the phones, though it is not clear how much more activity that was than his usual pace of investigating virtually endless possibilities.
“It’s been a lot of conversation today,” Preller said while seated in his top-floor suite at the Waldorf Astoria. “Kind of typical Day 1 of a winter meetings.”
The meetings continue through Wednesday.
Said Preller: “Hopefully productive and see where things come out in the next couple of days.”
Two sources familiar with the Padres’ discussions said Preller is shooting big.
One source said the Padres are working multiple fronts that could result in deals that rival the massive trade in which they acquired four major leaguers in exchange for Juan Soto and Trent Grisham at the winter meetings two years ago. Another source said Preller’s plans coming to fruition would make the deals he made at the past two trade deadlines pale in comparison.
The sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly, provided no further details.
And that is the way the winter meetings go.
There is often difficulty in discerning speculation from rumors and either one from a nugget of information with actual traction.
Nick Pivetta #27of the San Diego Padres celebrates in the clubhouse after beating the Milwaukee Brewers to secure a playoff spot at Petco Park on Sept. 22, 2025 in San Diego, CA. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
If there is truth to the scuttle that the Padres are listening to offers for starting pitcher Nick Pivetta, it is one of the more glaring examples of the fact that Preller rules out virtually nothing and explores virtually everything.
“It’s a time of year where teams are calling you, you’re calling teams,” Preller said. “You’ve got to be open-minded to like, ‘Hey, is there a better fit or a better way to build a roster?’”
A trade of Pivetta is considered unlikely and would only be executed if it were part of what one source termed a “blockbuster” that netted multiple major league players. Pivetta is due $20.5 million in 2026 and is a strong candidate to exercise the opt-out on his contract after the season rather than accept the $32 million he would be owed in total for 2027 and ’28.
As has been the case almost non-stop for at least two years, the Padres have also fielded calls on second baseman Jake Cronenworth, who is attractive for the fact he is an above-average player locked up for five more seasons at a reasonable $12.28 million per year. The Padres have really had no intention of trading Cronenworth in the past and once again seem to be willing to part with one of their team leaders only if staggered by the return.
The exact amount of money the Padres have to spend could be fluid, as it has been the past couple years when they made significant acquisitions during spring training — trading for Dylan Cease in 2024 and signing Pivetta this past February.
“The conversations with John, he has talked about being business as usual,” Preller said. “We have a budget and a payroll number. We’ll have more conversations based on what’s out there. We’ll get more information here this week. From that standpoint, it’s a similar process to what we’ve had, really, since I’ve been here. We’ll have an idea about where we’re at from a payroll number and then see what’s out there in terms of conversation coming out of this week. And then that could be a higher number (or a) lower number. I think it really just depends a little bit on the conversations about who’s out there and what we think we can do.”