ORLANDO, Fla. — If you are at all connected to the Detroit Tigers, good luck navigating the crowded lobby at the Signia hotel during the Winter Meetings. You might get stopped every few feet with someone asking the questions everyone in baseball wants to know.
Will the Tigers actually trade Tarik Skubal, or will they go all in to win a World Series in Skubal’s final year under team control?
So far, the answer to both questions appears to be a solid “no.” At least that’s the prevailing thought around the industry.
Based on what Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said Monday night in the team’s hotel room, the Tigers are going to be selective and targeted the rest of the offseason rather than operating with any newfound level of aggressiveness. They expect most of their offensive growth to come from within. Given they already have six-plus capable starting pitchers, it seems they would prefer any further starting acquisitions to have minor-league options. They’re in on relievers via free agency and trade, but that market is already moving. The Tigers also see value in building bullpen depth via the waiver wire and minor-league deals.
Given the young talent the Tigers already have and the players who are coming next, the team’s pragmatic approach is not without logic. But the goal of this sport is to win the last game and raise banners. If the Tigers don’t see 2026 as their best shot to win the World Series — if they are not compelled to spend or trade for a real No. 2 starter or a difference-making bat — might they be better off simply trading Skubal right now?
It’s a hard but necessary question. Such a move would come with inevitable blowback. It would almost certainly set the Tigers back in 2026, regardless of what sort of haul they get in return. Over the past two years, the Tigers are 42-20 in Skubal starts and 131-131 in all other games.
As agent Scott Boras said of the Tigers in his usual pun-filled news conference, “Without Skubs, they’re a Mystery Machine.”
With Boras on his side, Skubal’s chances of signing an extension in Detroit seem slim, given he’s likely headed toward a record payday for a starting pitcher. For the record, Boras on Tuesday was asked whether spring training or Opening Day could represent a deadline for any potential contract negotiations.
“We’ve always been a listener,” Boras said. “That’s always been our attitude. That’s up to Tarik as to how he wants to handle that. I have not discussed anything like that with him. At this point, my instructions are to listen to anything (the Tigers) have to say.”
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch, meanwhile, knows what it’s like having to answer to the endless outsiders curious about Skubal’s situation.
“It’s every day here,” Hinch said at his Tuesday media session.
Jackson Jobe is recovering from Tommy John surgery but could pitch again by the end of 2026. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Hinch has managed plenty of players who have gone through this process before. He was there when Gerrit Cole donned a Boras Corp. hat for his interviews moments after the last out of the 2019 World Series. He’s seen plenty of players navigate the various business realities of this game, even if he’s never had a player of Skubal’s caliber traded in his prime.
“I guess that makes it easier for me to help Tarik,” Hinch said. “Just control the controllables, to stay out of the rumor mill and prepare to have the best season you can. Rarely do you get the chance to prepare to three-peat in the Cy Young. So he’s locked in on what he’s doing at his home. I’m locked in on looking forward to him pitching for us. If that changes, I’m going to get a call, and we’ll react accordingly.”
For now, the Tigers’ keeping the most dominant left-hander in the game is, in many ways, admirable. The issue is whether that is actually the right strategy given everything else we know about the team.
Although the Tigers have a bundle of talented hitting prospects nearing the major leagues, the future of their pitching is less certain. Skubal, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are all free agents after next season. Harris was asked recently whether there is a need to secure pitching that can help the Tigers in 2026 and beyond. His answer hinted at MLB’s labor strife and the team’s reluctance to sign long-term commitments.
“For a variety of reasons, we’re pretty focused on ’26 right now,” Harris said. “There’s a ton of uncertainty coming after the season in a variety of ways. … If there’s an opportunity for us to get better in ’26, we’re gonna take it. If, in addition to the opportunity to get better in ’26, we’re gonna get better in ’27, ’28, ’29, obviously we’re gonna look at that, too.”
The Tigers have high-ceiling young pitchers in Troy Melton and Jackson Jobe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery but could pitch again by the end of 2026. However, pitching is no longer the strength of their system on paper, though the club remains optimistic about rising arms such as Jake Miller and Andrew Sears, plus prospects such as Owen Hall and Ethan Schiefelbein, who dealt with injuries last season.
Detroit might never be a team that circles one year as their best shot to win the World Series and burns the ships to get there, but trading Skubal now for a return that features multiple young pitchers and a middle-of-the-diamond athlete has its merits. The Tigers could strengthen the future of their staff to complement what they believe is a bright next phase for their offense. Such a decision would at least add up with their otherwise clear and convicted direction.
Of course, the Tigers play in a highly winnable division, with no other AL Central team showing signs of taking charge this winter. That surely factors into the Skubal calculus. Win the division, go into the playoffs with the best pitcher in baseball and you never know what could happen. If Skubal walks after the season, you’d at least get draft-pick compensation in return.
An offseason of rumors and speculation with little action could eventually turn awkward for Skubal and the Tigers, though. If they believe so deeply in their future and are not inclined to spend in the present, why not trade Skubal for the type of return that could alter their franchise for years to come?
That takes finding the right suitor. That takes a big and bold deal.
It likely would not be popular. Then again, neither would Skubal’s final year in Detroit ending with anything less than a World Series trophy.