Mahle hit free agency about a year younger than Mize, while set to miss a year of his contract due to injury, and still net an $11 million AAV. Taillon is the most similar in terms of success and profile; Plus command, mid-to-high-3.00s FIP, and similar trajectory.
Taillon missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 due to injury, posted a 4.30 ERA/4.43 FIP in 2021, and a 3.91 ERA/3.94 FIP in 2022 before signing his deal. Mize missed 2022 and 2024, posted a 4.49 ERA/3.95 FIP in 2024, and a 3.87 ERA/3.89 FIP in 2025.
Taillon hit the market with deGrom, Rodon, Verlander, and Walker as the only stateside free agents to get a bigger deal. Presumably, Mize will enter free agency with potentially Corbin Burnes, Tarik Skubal, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, Jose Berrios, and other established vets.
Another pitcher who is in the final year of his contract, has a similar track record, profile, and age is Brady Singer. I’d expect both him and Mize to land similar deals, depending on how 2025 goes.
So, I’d say an extension, depending on if it happens now or next year to go along with several other factors, could be between $15-$20 million AAV.
Final Thoughts
The Tigers will likely have a lot of change in their 2026 rotation. Jackson Jobe still needs to prove what he could be — along with Troy Melton — and Reese Olson will have to show he can stay health. Unless the Tigers add a multi-year starter this offseason, Mize might have to be retained.