With the question of who will be picked in the 2025 Rule 5 draft now officially answered, a new question has arisen—which picks will stick with their new teams in 2026?

This year’s class features several players with a strong chance to stick, as well as others whose present skill sets raise questions about major league readiness. With that in mind, here’s a look at the names on both ends of the spectrum.

Most Likely To Stick 

RJ Petit, RHP, Rockies (Selected from Tigers)

Why He Might Stick: Petit has the prerequisite blend of upper-minors performance and good stuff. He spent 2025 split between Double-A and Triple-A pitching to a 2.74 ERA, 3.19 FIP and 3.18 xFIP while generating ground balls at a 51% rate during his stint in Triple-A. Petit mixes a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider and changeup, and he shows a variety of out-generation abilities. 

Griff McGarry, RHP, Nationals (Selected from Phillies)

Why He Might Stick: In the first Rule 5 draft under newly-hired president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, the Nationals set the tone for things to come by selecting McGarry, a pitcher with arguably the nastiest stuff of those available. McGarry has upper-minors experience and seemed to turn a corner with his command later in 2025. 

Daniel Susac, C, Giants (Traded after being selected from Athletics by Twins)

Why He Might Stick: There’s a fairly good track record of catchers selected in the Rule 5 draft sticking with their respective clubs. Susac has passable defense behind the plate and he can hit. He has power and contact skills but an approach that, at times, gets a little overaggressive. 

Ryan Watson, RHP, Red Sox (Traded after being selected from Giants by Athletics)

Why He Might Stick: It’s typically a pretty good bet that, when a player is selected by one team and immediately traded, he has a chance to stick. Watson has been on the cusp of the major leagues for a few seasons and looks like a ready-made middle relief option next year. 

Matt Pushard, RHP, Cardinals (Selected from Marlins)

Why He Might Stick: Pushard jumped off the page in the first go-round of our Rule 5 research and was featured in our 1.0 preview. He was a tricky decision for the Marlins and looked like a sure thing to be picked. Pushard has upper-minors experience, success and stuff to match. 

Least Likely To Stick

Jedixson Paez, RHP, White Sox (Selected from Red Sox)

Why He Might Not Stick: The White Sox have long coveted Paez, so perhaps they figure out a way to make this work. That said, he has zero innings above High-A and sits in the low 90s with his fastball. Paez has plus command and missed much of 2025 with an injury. There’s a chance he comes with more upside than expected, but this is a higher-risk pick. 

Alexander Alberto, RHP, White Sox (Selected from Rays)

Why He Might Not Stick: Chicago’s second pick also has zero innings of experience above High-A. Alberto’s performance has been very strong the last few seasons, and he has elite stuff, but it’s tough to know how he’ll handle MLB hitters. 

Carter Baumler, RHP, Rangers (Traded after being selected from Orioles by Pirates)

Why He Might Not Stick: Baumler has very interesting stuff, and the fact the Rangers traded for him is a mark in his favor. However, he’s never pitched on consecutive days as a professional. You have to wonder if that makes him a very tough player to keep. 

Spencer Miles, RHP, Blue Jays (Selected from Giants)

Why He Might Not Stick: Miles has pitched a total of 14.2 professional innings. Despite good stuff, his lack of experience makes him a very tricky player for a competitive team like the Blue Jays to roster for a full season. Miles likely won’t return to game action until later in the first half of next season, giving this decision some time to play out. 

Cade Winquest, RHP, Yankees (Selected from Cardinals)

Why He Might Not Stick: Winquest was very good as a starter in 2025. He shows the ability to throw strikes and generate ground balls and whiffs against his plus curveball. His trio of breaking ball shapes is his carrying trait, and they play off each other well. The Yankees could convert Winquest to the bullpen and maybe find some success, but it’s tough to see him sticking.