We have known for a while that the Texas Rangers were planning on spending less on their team payroll in 2026 than they did the previous three seasons, when they were over the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2023 and 2024 and were either close to the threshold or just over it in 2025. After being around $220 million in 2025, I think we anticipated a drop to the $200-210 million range.
In a piece that dropped yesterday afternoon, however, Evan Grant suggests that even that range is overly-aggressive. After noting that the Rangers’ “low-level” class of free agents signed last offseason cost a total of $12 million, Grant opines that a similar group would cost around $20 million this year. I am not sure I agree with that estimate, given that that’s a 67% increase in the salaries for such relievers year-over-year.
What is worrying, though, is the follow up comment:
Not sure the Rangers have $20 million to spend on free agents.
As of right now, the Rangers are estimated to have $170 million committed in salaries for 2026, per Cot’s Contracts. That includes estimated arbitration salaries for unsigned arb-eligible guys, allocating the league minimum to 15 active roster spots (the difference between 26 active roster spots and 11 guys either under contract or arb-eligible), $5.5 million estimated for minimum- or near-minimum salary guys who will be called up during the season to replace players on the injured list, and the minor league splits for guys on the 40 man roster who are in the minors.
If the Rangers don’t have $20 million to spend on free agents, then they are going to have a payroll that is somewhere around $185 million — almost a 20% reduction in payroll. To explain the math there, every free agent they sign is going to add the amount the free agent is being paid, but will reduce the payroll calculation by the amount of a minimum salary player (the minimum salary in 2026 is $792,000). So if they sign another Shawn Armstrong type for $1.25 million, you’d add $1.25 million to the current obligations, but subtract $792K from the current obligations, since he’s replacing a placeholder minimum salary guy.
Which also turns the Marcus Semien trade into something the Rangers seemingly had to do, since swapping out Semien for Brandon Nimmo, and getting $5 million from the Mets in the deal, saved the Rangers approximately $10 million. Had the Rangers not made that move, and if Evan is correct, they would have had $10 million to spend this offseason.
The Rangers currently need, at a minimum, a starting catcher, a starting pitcher, and four or five relievers. I’m not sure they can accomplish that if they have less than $20 million to spend in the free agent market. Just a decent catcher and #4 or #5 starting pitcher would eat most of that amount.
Hopefully, the less than $20 million to spend figure is not accurate. Because if it is, it is going to be a dark, depressing remainder of the offseason, and will not bode well for the team’s chances in 2026.