For the second straight preseason, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections – now available at Fangraphs – see the Kansas City Royals as a club with strong pitching that can compete for the division. Szymborski projects the Royals to “finish with somewhere between 82-86 wins or so, depending on the assumptions”, and this is before the Royals have addressed their outfield deficiencies.
ZIPS reflects what Royals fans know – the starting pitching is the strength of this club. Szymborski writes it is not a stretch for the Royals to have a rotation that is “at the back of the top 10 in baseball.” He admits the projections are not as enthusiastic as they could be for high-upside arms like Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic because of injury concerns. ZIPS projects regression for Noah Cameron, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo, but still has all three as above-average pitchers, and Szymborski praises the depth the Royals have built up with Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Bailey Falter, and Daniel Lynch IV.
The bullpen grades as average, with Szymborski calling Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Angel Zerpa, and Alex Lange, a “quintet of B+ relievers.”
The lineup is very top-heavy as expected, but ZIPS is pretty bullish on Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, projecting both to be league-average hitters. Szymborski writes that the Royals were right to promote Caglianone aggressively, and his near-age offensive comps for Caglianone include former Twins sluggers Justin Morneau and Kent Hrbek.
ZIPS projects a healthy bounce back from Jonathan India, at least in the on-base percentage department, with a .338 OBA closer to his career numbers. Szymborski writes that the outfield is still an issue, but there are platoon possibilities that could allow the Royals to at last “eke out respectable production from the group.” The projection does not include Lane Thomas, who the Royals reportedly signed this week. The projections are fairly optimistic for young players like Kameron Misner, who the Royals acquired from the Rays, and outfield prospect Carson Roccaforte, although their projected WAR comes from strong defensive projections and not offense.
The Royals have expressed interest in bringing veteran Adam Frazier back, but these projections would discourage a reunion. Frazier is projected to hit just .231/.292/.326 and post below replacement-level numbers.
Taken together, ZIPS offers a cautiously optimistic view of a Royals team that has raised its floor and inched closer to contention. The rotation looks legitimately strong, the bullpen is deeper than it has been in years, and the system likes several of the club’s young bats more than expected. The projections show a team that is pretty well-positioned to be a contender if they can make the right moves to add a starting outfield.