I did this exercise last offseason and wound up being off the mark but in the general vicinity. The specifics are where I really stumbled, but the Giants did wind up doing (broadly) what I’d hoped they’d do. My plan:

Acquire RBI threats from both sides of the plate (Josh Naylor & Tyler O’Neill)Re-sign Blake SnellHave a meeting with Juan SotoSigned Willy Adames in the offseason, traded for Rafael Devers in-seasonSigned Justin Verlander

I wanted the team to show that they were serious about playing at the top of the market even if it was all but impossible to sign Soto, but they wanted to make sure they got the absolutely vital parts they’d need (shortstop, starting pitcher) to field a competitive team in 2025. So, you know, the Giants did the responsible thing.

Naylor and O’Neill combined for 2.8 fWAR at a cost of $27.4 million and Blake Snell gave the Dodgers 61.1 innings and 1.9 fWAR for $26.83 million. That’s $54.23 million for 4.7 wins above replacement. Not a great bargain. Meanwhile, Buster Posey got 6.2 fWAR from his two signings for the low price of $28.14 million. They also saved themselves from the indignity of a failed pursuit of a guy who was never going to sign with them.

Hmm, maybe I won’t name any specific players in this post…

On Wednesday, we got the preliminary ZiPS projection for the 2026 squad and it turns out the Giants are in pretty good shape on paper. But it presumes a lot of the depth will hit their median projections and that’s not something that really happens over the long baseball season. 2025 squad was in similarly solid shape before adding Willy Adames and Justin Verlander, so I choose to believe that my statement about the presumption of depth is one shared by the current front office.

That shows up in the offseason drumbeat of the team focus on pitching. But is there another part of the roster that might get some attention? Given those ZiPS projections, I think Buster’s shopping list is pretty clear.

Now, the easy answer is to add a #2 or #3 starter to the rotation along with a #5 and then one strong reliever to the bullpen, but that doesn’t seem to be the aim. The Giants might look to flotsam and jetsum to build up that ‘pen and stick to #4 or #5 starters for their rotation depth.

But is there another part of the roster that might get some attention? If they’re not going to play near the top of the market for a pitcher, then I think they’ll need to add another outfielder. Looking at the projection, the right field situation is flirting with “dire.” Is there a way to shore that up? Regular visitors to the site might be keenly aware of all this, but let’s just put it in writing.

3. Acquire one proven reliever

Now, I could’ve written “Re-sign Tyler Rogers” and leave it at that, but it doesn’t seem like the Giants will go in that direction given that he has “a very strong market,” and competing for free agents is not something the Giants like to do (that drives up the price).

With the top of the market closers fully off the board, that leaves an eclectic group of free agents with such a wide range of variability and projectibility that it makes sense why Buster Posey and Zack Minasian might simply want to stockpile healthy arms and roll the dice. But given the team’s cultural shift from data to guts, it stands to reason that they’d want at least one guy in the group who has a decent volume of experience in high leverage situations — and who isn’t Ryan Walker.

Does Luke Weaver have too many suitors for the Giants’ liking? He’d be a great addition. There’s also Tyler Kinley — who, since 2023, leads all relievers in FanGraphs’ Clutch stat — Seranthony Dominguez, and even someone like 35-year old Shawn Armstrong, who’s coming off a stellar year (1.4 fWAR in 74 IP) for Bruce Bochy in Texas. I guess the key is that the Giants don’t want to spend 8 figures in average annual value on a relief arm, so here’s hoping they consider the high 7s at least, because one of these types should be available at that level.

2. Play near the top of the SP market

According to MLB.com, Dylan Cease was the top available starter on the board at the time of his 7-year, $210 million deal. In other seasons, that contract would’ve set the market, but if you listen to the national talkers and read the reporters, there’s a sense that it’s an outlier deal and that maybe only Tatsuya Ima could get that many years. The Giants, as we know, are all out on Ima.

But rather than stay focused on the borderline rotation types, they really do need to come up with somebody who projects to be better than Robbie Ray figures to be, if for no other reason than to protect the rotation from an injury to Landen Roupp (who has suddenly become a load-bearing presence there). That doesn’t mean I think they should go get Framber Valdez, but I do believe that they need to either realize a trade or land somebody with a projectable upside better than what’s already on hand.

From a trade perspective, that does mean Freddy Peralta — so, good to see that the Giants have had conversations about acquiring him — and MacKenzie Gore, but possibly also Mitch Keller or Brady Singer. All four have been top 30 pitchers the past two seasons (among qualified starters). If the Giants could pry Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo from the Royals, that would be even better.

The only free agent who fits what I really mean by “not the best, but just after the best” is Zac Gallen. The history of baseball suggests that he’s fully in a decline phase that cannot be halted or even temporarily reversed, but at the same time, his age and track record make him a decent gamble to do better than a 2-WAR player. Chris Bassitt will be 37 when the season starts and so I would not count on him to be better than the 2ish-WAR player he’s been the past two seasons (really, his entire career). I can’t imagine the Giants would bring back Zack Littell.

I feel that very strongly that it’s get a guy of this stature plus Justin Verlander or, as has been telegraphed since Tony Vitello was hired, Max Scherzer.

1. Acquire a good right fielder/outfielder.

No, seriously. Just do it, Giants. I know you’re out on Kyle Tucker, I know trades are hard, but there’s a big ol’ need in right field, just as there was a big ol’ need at shortstop last offseason. That time, you jumped the market to make sure you got Willy Adames — great! This time around, it would seem that you’re waiting for the price to go down or considering adding a centerfielder (Harrison Bader?) to possibly shuffle Jung Hoo Lee over to right field — or play right himself, thinking that Oracle’s right field is as difficult as centerfield, perhaps?

Is Bader the best fit? Probably not. He’ll be 32 and coming off a career year at the plate. Historically, that has been enough of a red flag for signing free agents. And, the batted ball data looks scary. He basically had a better season than the hitting metrics would indicate. He gets hurt a lot. Still, I get it. If he fits the budget and winds up being the best available when the music stops, I guess that’s the way you’ll need to go, Giants.

Cody Bellinger would also seem to be a major, expensive risk with more downside than upside, and Luis Robert would cost a lot from a prospect capital standpoint. If there’s prospect capital to trade away, I would assume it would be used to acquire a starting pitcher… but don’t sleep on the vital need for a better outfielder. It can’t just be “if all else fails, we’ll platoon Grant McCray and Joey Wiemer in right.”

I tried to keep it generic because it gets tricky when dealing with specific players and situations. Agree? Disagree? What 3 moves do you think the Giants need to make this offseason?