May 5, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Cole Ragans (55) throws in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

On paper, Cole Ragans looks like exactly the pitcher the Red Sox should be chasing.

He’s young, controllable, left-handed, and capable of missing bats at an elite level. For a franchise that has spent years searching for rotation stability without sacrificing upside, Ragans checks every box. But making sense and being attainable are two very different things — and that gap defines the conversation.

That tension has only grown louder. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Red Sox and Royals have held exploratory talks involving Ragans and Jarren Duran.

From a pure fit standpoint, the appeal is obvious. Ragans embodies what Craig Breslow has prioritized since taking over: velocity that plays in the strike zone, secondaries that erase platoon advantages, and an arsenal that holds up as lineups turn over. His fastball lives in the mid-90s, touches higher when needed, and still generates swings and misses despite consistently filling the zone. It’s not just power — it’s command and intent.

The separator, though, is his changeup. Ragans throws it often, throws it for strikes, and still overwhelms right-handed hitters. The pitch generates elite swing-and-miss rates without relying on chase, allowing him to avoid the platoon issues that derail many left-handed starters. Pair that with a slider deployed almost exclusively as a putaway pitch, and the result is a streamlined arsenal built to finish at-bats, not extend them.

Everything about Ragans points to playoff upside — which is exactly why Kansas City isn’t eager to move him.

“It would be really difficult for us to trade Cole,” Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said to MLB.com while at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida earlier this month. “When he’s right, he’s as good as anybody in the game. If we didn’t have him in our rotation, we’d feel like we’re missing something really big.”

So why isn’t this an obvious move for Boston?

The Red Sox have already added structure to the rotation with Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. Those moves don’t eliminate the need for impact pitching, but they remove desperation. Behind them sits a laundry list of backend options — arms capable of covering innings, if not dominating — giving Boston the flexibility to stay disciplined rather than force a high-risk swing.

That reality raises a quieter, more realistic question: if the Red Sox were willing to discuss Jarren Duran, does it have to be Ragans coming back?

A more plausible framework might involve left-hander Kris Bubic instead.

Bubic doesn’t offer Ragans’ ceiling, but he checks several boxes Boston values. The 28-year-old took a significant step forward last season, posting a 2.55 ERA across 116.1 innings in 20 starts while earning his first All-Star selection. His improved command, steadier run prevention, and ability to miss bats point to a pitcher who can provide reliable rotation value without carrying ace-level risk.

A deal built around Bubic could also reshape the conversation on Kansas City’s side. Moving a pitcher one tier below Ragans opens the door to creativity — and potentially volume. That’s where top catching prospect Blake Mitchell becomes relevant.

Mitchell, still just 21, showed real offensive upside during a full season at Single-A, flashing power and a well-above-average overall profile for his age. A late-season promotion brought expected growing pains, including swing-and-miss, but the underlying tools remain intact. He combines legitimate pop with defensive traits teams covet, including a strong arm that already controls the running game. For a Red Sox system lacking long-term clarity at catcher, that upside is meaningful.

For Kansas City, such a framework would still deliver a controllable everyday outfielder in Duran. For Boston, it would address multiple organizational needs — pitching stability and future catching — without betting the rotation on one arm.

So there you have it, Ragans makes sense for the Red Sox but Bubic and Mitchell address specific needs. The trade for Ragans, at that price, might not. Sometimes the smartest move isn’t landing the perfect fit — it’s knowing when to zig instead of zagging.