The Seattle Mariners are looking to win their second consecutive American League West crown in 2026, and they’ll do so with much of the same team that helped them get to the American League Championship Series in 2025.

Sure, the M’s have lost Jorge Polanco, but they’ve also re-signed Josh Naylor and acquired bullpen arm Jose Ferrer in a trade with the Nationals.

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The ZIPS projections for 2026 came out on Thursday morning, and they like the M’s chances next season, giving them high praise across the board:

I know that I make a lot of jokes about the Jerry Dipoto .540 meme, but ZiPS actually sees this team as a good bit better than that going into 2026. Unless the Mariners get bitten by starting pitcher and outfield injuries, where they’re vulnerable depth-wise, this set of projections sees them as a .550-.580 team. That’s enough for them to likely be one of the American League’s elites when I run the official projected standings in March.

For reference, having a winning percentage of 55-58 percent? That would mean 89-93-ish wins.

In addition to just having a good roster, the Mariners also benefit from a winnable division at this time. The Houston Astros are set to lose Framber Valdez in free agency and don’t seem particularly invested in the free agent market, while the Texas Rangers have traded away Marcus Semien.

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The Angels have made some interesting moves, but don’t project to be a contender and the A’s have an elite offensive profile, but lack pitching depth and quality.

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The vulnerabilities for the M’s are real, as Fangraphs noted. The Mariners have Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock to serve as depth starting pitchers, but they can’t afford the kind of attrition they had in 2025 again. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missed at least a month with injury, and Bryan Woo missed the final two weeks of the regular season and wasn’t able to start in the playoffs.

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As for the outfield? Those fears are fair as well. The team can’t replace Julio Rodriguez and will have to hope Randy Arozarena is another 25-25 threat. They need a healthy (and productive season) out of Victor Robles, and are, at the moment, counting on Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in reserve roles.

Should Rodriguez go down, the whole operation crumbles, and should Robles or Arozarena go down, Raley and Canzone will have a ton of pressure on them.

The M’s are still one of the favorites for St. Louis Cardinals standout Brendan Donovan, who is expected to be traded. They are also in the mix for Ketel Marte as well.

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