Nationals
The San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals are quite familiar with one another on the trade market, and with both teams possessing needs entering the 2026 season, both are logical trade partners beneath the surface.
Washington, in the midst of a franchise reset under new head of baseball operations Paul Toboni, has set out to acquire players with potential for future success.
Most recently, the Nationals parted ways with left-handed pitching prospect Jake Bennett to snag Red Sox fireballer Luis Perales. Washington lacks in the position player department, entering the offseason with trade rumors surrounding CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, both of whom were integral to the Juan Soto trade three seasons ago.
In that time, many of their big acquisitions in other deals (Keibert Ruiz, Donovan Casey, and Josiah Gray, among others) have fizzled out or sustained major injuries that have impacted their potential. Washington’s farm system is also incredibly pitching-heavy, as according to MLB Pipeline, most of their MLB-ready pieces are pitchers (9 of 30 top prospects per Pipeline are also shortstops, which might not be as relevant, but is worth pointing out).
With Washington’s need for positional depth at the near-MLB level being what it is, San Diego has an almost-as-dire need for starting rotation depth. Most of the Padres’ upper rotation depth was moved at the trade deadline (Braden Nett, Henry Baez), and while the Padres have some major-league-ready depth, most of their options are either unproven or out of MLB options
. Miguel Mendez is near-MLB ready, but struggled in his first taste of Double-A ball, which makes him a likely second-half contributor barring a breakout Spring Training. With free agency inflating the costs of free agent arms (Adrian Houser got a 2-year, $22 million deal at the time of the writing of this paragraph), the Padres are likely to look to the trade market for solutions. While much has been made about Padres-Mets trade discussions, the Padres and Nationals make sense for a buy-low trade.
Should you have chosen to watch the 2024 Nationals, you may remember left-handed pitcher DJ Herz. Acquired by the Nationals in the 2023 trade, sending Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs, Herz made his MLB debut the following season. Herz wound up making 19 starts for the Nationals, pitching 88.2 innings to a solid 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Hertz had stronger advanced numbers, as his 3.26 xERA, 3.71 FIP, and 3.85 xFIP painted a stronger picture. His percentile statistics were equally as strong, as he posted a 27.7% strikeout rate and career-low 9.4% walk rate. When put together, Herz posted a promising rookie season with areas in which he could grow into a solid mid-rotation starter with ace potential.
Herz’s arsenal was the prototypical left-hander’s arsenal, but showed promising results. He was a four-pitch pitcher in his rookie season, and like with most rookie pitchers, he leaned heavily on the fastball. Herz’s fastball graded out as roughly average per Stuff+, ranging from 98 to 101 Stuff+ depending on the Stuff+ formula. His fastball comes at hitters from a -4.8 degree vertical approach angle (or VAA for short), which gave the pitch an average of 15.9 inches of induced vertical break. Herz’s fastball characteristics play as a whole, and in 2025, pitchers with comparable fastball shapes included Andrew Abbott, Carlos Rodon, and Trevor Rogers. Herz’s fastball-heavy approach was successful in 2024, as the pitch racked up an impressive 30.5% whiff rate and +9 run value.
DJ Herz now has 13 Ks on the day for the @Nationals ? pic.twitter.com/F1EcWQJvt4
— MLB (@MLB) June 15, 2024
His secondary offerings were mostly platoon-specific, as the left-hander turned to the slider against left-handers and the changeup against right-handers. Herz’s slider was a true bullet slider, averaging 86.1 mph with three inches of iVB and 0.2 inches of vertical break. The slider was able to get some whiffs (albeit on a subpar 27.1% of swings), but suffered due to missing over the heart of the plate. Four of the eleven homers Herz allowed in 2024 came off the slider, with each coming on a slider in the upper half or middle of the zone.
The changeup was similar in that regard, as the pitch posted a slightly-above-average Stuff+ at 103, but failed to generate an overly impressive whiff rate (26.1%). Herz’s changeup brought 15.5 inches of armside run, but had a tendency to miss over the heart of the plate. When located well, it showed success, but Herz’s ability to consistently locate it would be something to build on. His final offering was a sharp, crescent-like knuckle-curve in the 78-83 mph range. While it was his least-used offering, it brought back a 53.3% whiff rate on swings against. While the pitch was somewhat raw and lacking in vertical drop, the early returns showed signs of being a potential out pitch in the future.
Herz’ changeup is arguably his best pitch, grading out favourably in pitch models and scouting evaluations. It plays off his fastball really well as he readily replicates his arm speed while creating a drastic movement differential throughout its flight
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 29, 2025
Unfortunately for Herz and the Nats, any chance at building off his rookie campaign was brought to a screeching halt, as he sustained a UCL tear during 2025 Spring Training. Herz and his camp sought second and third opinions, but ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Since then, the Nationals have seen a major shift in the organization, and the team is also likely to move ace MacKenzie Gore in the trade market.
With a projected rotation of Gore, former top prospects Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray, free agent signing Foster Griffin, and the duo of Rule 5 armGriff McGarry and surprise breakout Brad Lord, the Nationals have ample rotation depth with arms who are either looking to prove themselves or take steps forward. The Nationals also have plenty of upper-minors depth pieces in Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez, and the recently-acquired Luis Perales. Considering their depth and Herz’s status for 2026 being out until at least midseason, would they be willing to entertain a move?
The short answer is… probably not. However, the Nationals lack near-MLB-ready infield depth, as their highest-ranked prospects are all at least one season away from the major leagues. The Nationals’ first base situation is also something of a question mark, as the team is entertaining a positional move for 2025 starting second baseman Luis Garcia Jr. Garcia is likely to be the Nationals’ starting first baseman, which opens up second base as a position of need.
First and second base is a need that somewhat align with the Padres’ minor league situation, as the Padres have Jake Cronenworth set at second base and are on the hunt for a first baseman. With the positional needs and status on both sides, for the sake of a thought exercise, here is what a potential trade could appear as:
San Diego acquires LHP DJ Herz, RHP R.J. Sales from Washington.
Washington acquires RHP Francis Pena, IF Romeo Sanabria, RHP Misael Tamarez
At face value, this hypothetical scenario appears to be a major return from the Padres to Washington. Even so, it is worth remembering that Herz is not a free agent until the 2031 season, so he has another five seasons’ worth of service time under team control. The Padres would be parting with three near-MLB-ready players, all of whom could play a role on the 2026 Nationals. Starting with Pena, the hard-throwing right-hander made it to Triple-A over the past two seasons, but hit a bit of a snag this season. Pena saw his walk rate rise to a career-high 14.3% in 52.1 innings at Triple-A El Paso.
Even so, he still boasted strong velocity, with an average fastball velocity at 94.8 mph. His sinker was harder, at 95.4 mph, and he still got plenty of ground balls. Pena posted a 55.6% ground ball rate in 2025. Under this hypothetical, Pena would be a non-roster relief option for the Nationals in 2026, and going from pitching on the moon in the PCL to pitching on Earth in the International League could allow Pena a chance to correct the command issues with Triple-A Rochester.
Sometimes, stuff models don’t get SSW.
Francis Pena, 24, a Padres’ prospect has pitches with crazy movement.
The main pitch in question is his seam-shifted sinker, which deviates significantly from arm slot with plus velocity. Why is this pitch grading out so poorly? pic.twitter.com/WMGUSAKCPG
— Remi Bunikiewicz (@RBunikiewicz) November 14, 2025
The same goes for the second arm going to Washington in this scenario, right-hander Misael Tamarez. Tamarez was re-signed by the Padres organization after his release from the Astros’ system, and Tamarez responded by pitching to a 4.54 ERA across three levels in 31.2 innings. The K/9 numbers don’t do his performance justice, as Tamarez fanned 25.5% of opposing batters with the San Diego organization, walking only 3%.
His performance has been as sharp in the Dominican Winter League as he has pitched to a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings as of the writing of this piece. Tamarez would be another near-MLB-ready relief arm for the Nats in this deal, and Tamarez has pitched plenty of multi-inning relief in his minor league career, which could aid the Nationals’ staff should he get a major league call-up.
The Padres have signed former Astro farmhand Misael Tamarez to a minor league deal and assigned him to High-A Fort Wayne.
Yet another fireballer to add to the ranks, me likeypic.twitter.com/dad41255H3
— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) July 19, 2025
The final piece in this deal is first baseman Romeo Sanabria. While Tirso Ornelas could also go to the Nats in this hypothetical deal, Sanabria is a younger player who could fit Washington’s timeline. Sanabria has long been a gap-to-gap hitter, with his career-high in homers being 12 (from this past season). Sanabria is a first base/DH strictly, as he possesses below-average speed, and his profile at the dish was of a disciplined batter who could work counts and drive in runs.
However, he was much more aggressive at the plate in 2025, but the change worked against him. He drew significantly fewer walks in 2025, walking 7.4% of the time against a 21.4% strikeout rate. While he still strikes out less than the league-average, Sanabria will need to go back to his patient approach to deliver stronger results. With the Nationals’ closest answer to first base in the minor leagues being Yohandy Morales, who posted similar results to Sanabria in 2025, the Nationals could take a gamble on the 23-year-old Sanabria to be an option for first base or DH should he rediscover his 2024 form that led him to be an Arizona Fall League All-Star.
How about the week Romeo Sanabria is having after getting called up to Double-A?! Tonight’s @FrostBank Player of the Game recorded two hits, scored twice and blasted his first home run at this level. pic.twitter.com/EaKy5697iZ
— San Antonio Missions Baseball (@missionsmilb) August 10, 2024
Lastly, coming to San Diego alongside Herz would be right-hander RJ Sales. Sales is a former Tigers draftee acquired by the Nationals in the Kyle Finnegan deal. Between two organizations at A-Ball last season, Sales posted a 2.85 ERA, 2.94 FIP, and 3.19 xFIP. Sales struck out 26% of batters while walking only 7.3%, and his strikeout rate surged to 29.8% in six starts with the Washington organization post-trade.
At just 22 and coming off his first pro season, Sales could be another arm to replenish the Padres’ low-level rotations, as the right-hander could give depth to the Padres’ Single-A or High-A rotations to open the season with arms like Carson Montgomery and Bryan Balzer coming off injury-riddled seasons.
R.J. Sales struck out NINE for the @FXBGNats last night to earn his first win in the Nationals organization! ??
5.0 IP | 5H | 2 ER | 9 K pic.twitter.com/70AvrfVvM9
— Nationals Player Development (@Nats_PlayerDev) August 15, 2025
Now, is this trade something that either party would entertain? Possibly, given the Nationals’ sudden surplus of starting pitching options. Herz would serve as a sort of trade deadline acquisition for San Diego should his rehab continue on schedule. While it may seem far-fetched, San Diego has shown an ability to get the most out of left-handed starting pitchers with average secondaries through their strong pitching R&D and coaching infrastructure. An arm like Herz reaching his potential could be a dream scenario for San Diego, giving the team a long-term starting pitcher with ace potential.
San Diego has been rumored in trade talks with NL East clubs, but with their budgetary constraints, could the Padres take a gamble on an arm with potential?
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
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