Let’s not kid ourselves, there was not much player activity at last week’s MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando, Fla. However, the buzz surrounding a potential blockbuster trade between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets has lingered far longer than expected.
For a brief moment, the rumors allowed the Friar Faithful to fantasize about a lineup featuring Fernando Tatis Jr., Francisco Lindor, and Manny Machado at the top of the order. But those talks have hit a roadblock because Lindor was never part of the discussions between the two teams.
The Mets were reportedly inquiring about the availability of San Diego’s pitching in exchange for young major league talent. The players discussed were Nick Pivetta, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada. However, the Mets did ask about the availability of Mason Miller.
The price to acquire Miller would be astronomical
If the Mets could pry Miller away from the Friars, the cost would blow up their top major league prospect list. Team president of baseball operations David Stearns would have to surrender quite a package headlined by Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Jett Williams. However, the risk of losing all of their 40-man roster depth does not make sense.
The Mets are looking to upgrade their bullpen after losing Edwin Diaz to the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency. But the team was decimated by injuries to its starting rotation last season. It forced them to use their top pitching prospects to remain in the postseason chase. Trading those players away to fix the bullpen would create a new problem on the roster. Often, those are just as difficult to solve.
Miller trade is highly unlikely
The likelihood of Miller being available in any potential trade is highly unlikely, as the Padres front office moved quickly to squash all trade rumors before the media reports gained traction. The team views him as a cornerstone piece of their pitching staff. The media may have overblown the availability of the Padres’ closer.
The Friars paid a heavy price to acquire Miller at last summer’s trade deadline. From a baseball point of view, it seems like a colossal mistake to deal him away this offseason. If the Mets are declaring Nolan McLean untouchable in trade talks, then Miller is unavailable.
Is it the right move to trade Pivetta?
If the Friars are looking to make a trade with the Mets, the right move might be to make Pivetta available for a lesser cost. Pivetta has a heavily backloaded contract, and trading him offers the franchise salary relief. The financial flexibility helps to build a more balanced roster next season.
Here are the financials, as his base salaries are $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. Pivetta holds a player opt-out clause after the 2026 and 2027 seasons. The $51 million remaining on the deal could become an albatross for the Padres if they fail to move him.
The right-hander is coming off his best season in the majors. Pivetta recorded a career-high 13 wins with a career-low 2.87 ERA in 31 starts. However, the odds are high that a starting pitcher entering his mid-30s could not duplicate those numbers again. He is a very serviceable starter, but his production could decline next season.
Trading Pivetta might weaken the starting rotation, but it is a gamble that the Padres must consider.
The temptation to make a blockbuster trade is always on the table for Preller. The Mets and Friars could re-engage in trade talks before the start of Spring Training.
However, no deal will take place unless their needs align.