You either control the market or the market controls you. Strike first, and you can get your man at your price. Wait and see, and you might find yourself between a rock and a hard place. The Cincinnati Reds did the former when it came to re-signing Emilio Pagan.
Pagan wasn’t a guarantee to come back, and the Reds did have a moment of flirtation with Devin Williams before coming to a reunion with their 34-year-old closer. Williams was in an interesting position on the market, standing alone, not quite regarded as a top-tier closer option, but still ranking ahead of the second tier, where guys like Pagan resided. The Reds’ interest in him made it difficult to figure out where they’d ultimately land.
As it turns out, Cincinnati likely dodged a bullet after seeing Williams land a three-year, $51 million deal with the Mets. That put him right up there with Robert Suarez (three years, $45 million), and just a bit behind Edwin Diaz (three years, $69 million).
The Reds, of course, were never going to pay those prices. But what about the second tier? How did those guys fare, and how does the deal the Reds gave Emilio Pagan stack up?
The Reds come out smelling like roses with the Emilio Pagan deal
Depending on whether or not he opts out following 2026, this is essentially a two-year, $20 million deal or a one-year, $10 million deal, coming in slightly under the two-year, $22 million contract he was projected to land.
That in and of itself is a steal, but given how the market has exploded, it has become crystal clear just how well the Reds made out.
Former Red Luke Weaver landed the deal that Pagan was expected to receive, signing for two years, $22 million with the Mets. Weaver had revived his career in 2024 with the New York Yankees; however, he collapsed down the stretch last season, posting a 4.40 ERA in the second half, and had a huge meltdown in the playoffs.
Another former Red, Raisel Iglesias, re-upped with the Braves, getting only a one-year deal, but making $16 million in the process. Iglesias had begun to show signs of age-related decline last season in what was a season that went off the rails for Atlanta.
Perhaps the best comparison that shows what a steal Pagan was is the contract the Toronto Blue Jays gave Tyler Rogers. Rogers has been one of the most consistent setup men in the game, but he’s not a closer. Still, Toronto lavished him with a three-year, $37 million deal that could go as high as $49 million over four years should his 2029 conditional club option convert to a $12 million vesting option. That’s a ton of money for a guy who won’t be closing out games.
Had the Reds waited on Pagan, they’d likely see him exceeding the $22 million over two years that he was projected to get. Instead, by being proactive, they come in just a hair under that prediction, and are all the better for it.