When young prospect slugger Yordan Alvarez donned a Houston Astros uniform in 2019, he took the entire league by storm.
Out of nowhere, he turned opposing teams heads as they feared him every at-bat, mashing 27 homers in 87 games slashing a .313 AVG with a 1.067 OPS.
Mind you, this was at just 22 years old. He unanimously won the American League Rookie of the Year. Baseball fans were eager to see what he would do next, especially from the Astros. Could he become as good as Aaron Judge? Could he become the first Astros MVP since Jose Altuve in 2017? Could he become the first Astro to reach 50 home runs in a season?
Solid Hitter, But No Video Game Numbers
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Fastforward to the end of 2025 and none of those things have transpired. He’s been exceptional. He’s a three-time All-Star, hitting over 30 homers and at least a .950 OPS in multiple seasons. But he hasn’t competed with the heavy hitters like Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who are the top two hitters in baseball and reigning MVPs. These sluggers display video game type numbers over the last few seasons, translating them both to win back-to-back MVPs in their league at the same time.
Alvarez when healthy, has a punchers chance to produce video games numbers like Judge and Ohtani. His rookie season saw a glimpse of it and the later years when he’s played close to a full season. In seasons where Houston’s won the AL West Crown, Air Yordan produced a total of a 23.5 WAR.
Alvarez’ Injury History
Last season saw Alvarez on the IL for 114 games, over two thirds of a season. This became a large factor in the Astros losing the AL West division for the first time since 2020 and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Both of these failed goals occurred when Alvarez spent the majority of the season on the IL. The shortened 2020 season saw Alvarez just play two games, the year where the Astros lost the AL West but made the playoffs. He played just 48 games in 2025, a season ,where the Astros failed to make the playoffs,
In order for the Astros to get back to being “lnevitable,” they need their All-Star slugger healthy and play close to a full season. Each time he’s avoided the IL, the Astros won their division and made the playoffs.
What’s Cooking For Alvarez in 2026
Baseball reference projects Alvarez’ 2026 season as another possible wash, plating 363 appearances, which is basically half a season. His projected numbers of .289 AVG with 18 homers and a .904 OPS are good, but don’t justify a large impact.
According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic (subscription required), one of Joe Espada’s main goals is to “decide how to keep Alvarez healthy” and spend “most of his season” as the DH. It’s understandable to place your injury prone slugger at the DH position for health reasons, but you cannot deny his production is light years better when he plays in left field.
MVP At Left Field
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According to Fangraphs, Yordan’s offensive stats when playing in LF contribute to MVP status, a .330 AVG with a 1.045 OPS and a 187 wRC+ in 897 plate appearances. That amount of LF plate appearances is close to a season and a half, warranting a large sample size.
When DH, these stats lower down to .281 AVG, a .920 OPS and a 151 wRC+. Still, solid numbers, but Yordan clearly feels more attentive to the game when he plays both positions. Not to mention his strikeout percentage of 21.9% as a DH goes down to 14.9% when he plays in LF.
Keeping Him Healthy At DH Lowers Value
It’s a foregone conclusion Alvarez is a much better player when he doesn’t DH. Is Espada willing to keep him healthy at the expense of AL MVP numbers sliding down to All-Star numbers? He will be turning 29 in June and is owed $26 million next season. Having him healthy above all else is what matters. The Astros’ record with Alvarez is 402-275, a .594 winning percentage. Without him, their record is 200-154, with a winning percentage down to .565.
However, when healthy and on the field, Alvarez is a one-man wrecking crew, singlehandedly capable of producing Ohtani-Judge-like numbers, which would push the Astros offense back to relevancy.
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