It might be hard to remember now, but once upon a time, the Houston Astros had a dominant farm system that was built primarily through the MLB draft. That seems shocking, considering the Astros’ farm was ranked 29th out of 30 teams during MLB Pipeline’s midseason update, and that ranking may tumble into last place following the loss of two of their very top prospects, Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito, in the Mike Burrows trade.
But Bleacher Report took a walk down memory lane in an attempt to rank all 30 MLB franchises in terms of drafting ability, using Baseball-Reference WAR of each signed draft pick to determine who reigned supreme since 2010. Surprise, the answer is the Astros.
Astros’ top ranking in MLB Draft success shows how bad things have gotten
George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, all of these guys were integral parts of the Houston Astros’ dynasty. Year after year, it seemed as if the Astros were picking the league’s next superstar.
To be fair, there were some busts in the mix here as well. Forrest Whitley is on his way to Japan. Mark Appel was a huge disappointment. Brady Aiken saved the Astros from themselves and gifted them Alex Bregman in the do-over after refusing to sign.
And it’s there, with Whitley in 2016, where things start falling off a cliff. You have JB Bukauskas in 2017, Seth Beer in 2018, and Korey Lee in 2019, all amounting to a whole lot of nothing. The Astros would then be without a first-round pick until Drew Gilbert in 2022.
If it’s not clear what changed, the Astros had three straight first overall picks from 2012 through 2014, and then had two top-five picks (Bregman No. 2 overall, Tucker No. 5 overall) in 2015. That was all thanks to the great tank.
Once Houston started winning and they started picking in the late-20s, the success rate didn’t just drop; it became non-existent.
While the jury is still out on Brice Matthews, Walker Janek, and Xavier Neyens, for the last half-decade, the Astros have done nothing but whiff on valuable first-round picks.
With that, the pipeline has become bone dry, and Houston hasn’t proven to have the financial wherewithal to simply spend their way through the attrition. Now, on the heels of missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they’re staring the prospect of their window slamming shut for good.
The Astros have no one to blame but themselves. While no draft pick is a guarantee, the franchise’s complete ineptitude to find quality players outside of the top-five picks has put them behind the eight-ball, and it could be a long time before they dig their way out.