Should the Minnesota Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Offseason?

The Minnesota Twins finished 2025 with a disappointing 70-92 record, falling 18 games behind in the AL Central after a major sell-off at the trade deadline this past summer.

While the organization has said they plan to keep their core players and compete in 2026, one name continues to pop up in trade rumors: starting pitcher Pablo Lopez.

Since the massive deadline fire sale that sent 11 players out of the Twin Cities, including Carlos Correa back to Houston, reports have come out about what direction the front office wants to take.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that the Twins plan to hold onto Lopez, along with Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan, but that doesn’t mean teams won’t be calling.

Why the Twins Should Trade Lopez

Lopez was limited to just 14 starts in 2025 due to a hamstring strain in April, a shoulder strain that cost him three months over the summer, and a forearm strain that ended his season in September.

When he was on the mound, though, he was excellent, pitching to a 2.74 ERA with a 3.19 FIP across 75.2 innings, which shows he can still be a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy.

The bigger picture is that Lopez has two years and $43.5 million left on his contract, making $21.5 million per season through 2027.

The Twins already have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and with their payroll projected to be around $96 million next year, trading Lopez could help bring in more young talent while also freeing up money to address other needs like the bullpen, which was gutted at the deadline.

The free agent starting pitching market this winter is thin, with guys like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez all coming off down years.

That lack of options could drive up Lopez’s trade value and make contending teams willing to pay a premium for him.

Why the Twins Should Keep Lopez

On the other hand, keeping Lopez makes sense if the Twins truly believe they can compete in the weak AL Central in 2026.

They already traded away their entire bullpen and most of their veteran core, and moving Lopez would leave a huge hole in the rotation behind Joe Ryan, who went 13-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 194 strikeouts across 171 innings in 2025 in what was a career year for him.

Lopez is still just 29 years old and is under contract at a below-market rate for a number two starter, which gives Minnesota a chance to build around him and Ryan while their young players like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall develop.

The Twins hired new manager Derek Shelton and have added some new limited partners to help with their debt issues, so there’s at least some hope that ownership is committed to competing again.

What Kind of Trade Package Could Minnesota Get?

If the Twins do decide to trade Lopez, they could get a solid return despite his injury-filled 2025 season.

Contending teams like the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, or Atlanta Braves could offer packages that include multiple top prospects, since Lopez has proven he can pitch like an ace when healthy and his contract is very team-friendly.

A realistic return might look something like two or three mid-level prospects, including at least one pitcher close to the majors and a position player with upside.

The Twins likely won’t get a massive haul given Lopez’s recent injury history, but his track record and contract make him an attractive piece for any team looking to make a run in 2026.

For now, Minnesota says they’re keeping Lopez and trying to compete next year, but if things go south early in the season, don’t be surprised if they change course and put him on the block before the July deadline.

Should the Minnesota Twins Trade Pablo Lopez This Offseason?

Tags: