Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd works against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning of a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025, in Denver. (Image via AP Photo/David Zalubowski) The Chicago Cubs are coming off a 92–70 season and are clearly trying to win now. With that in mind, the front office has been linked to St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. The cost would likely be young infielder Matt Shaw.The idea is straightforward. Chicago has depth and payroll room. What it lacks is certainty at third base. Arenado provides that right away.
What Nolan Arenado still brings to the Chicago Cubs
Nolan Arenado’s track record is hard to match. He has eight All-Star selections, ten Gold Gloves, and nearly 1,800 major league games behind him. Even with a dip at the plate in 2025, his defense stayed strong.Last season, he hit .237 with a .289 on-base percentage and a .377 slugging percentage, finishing with 12 home runs in 107 games. Those numbers were well below his standards, but his glove did not slip. His arm strength and reactions at third base remain among the best in the league.Arenado’s Career snapshot: • 8 All-Star selections • 10 Gold Gloves • Career slash line: .282/.338/.507 • 353 home runs • 1,184 RBIsAt 34, there are real questions about decline. Still, even a reduced version of Arenado offers steady defense and a reliable presence in a playoff race.
Matt Shaw’s upside and the Chicago Cubs’ timeline
Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Tucker singles off Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon in the first inning of a baseball game Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025, in Denver. (Image via AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Matt Shaw is 23 and still developing. He can play multiple infield spots and brings speed and athleticism. His first taste of the majors showed promise, but it also came with swing-and-miss issues.Projected 2025 line: • Around .244 batting average • About .307 on-base percentage • Roughly .395 slugging • 14 home runs projected • More than 100 strikeoutsFor a team rebuilding, that profile makes sense. For a team trying to win the division now, it comes with uncertainty.
How the money could work
Nolan Arenado is owed about $44 million over the 2026 and 2027 seasons. The proposed structure has St. Louis covering roughly $20–25 million of that total, which lowers the risk for Chicago.
Trade framework:
• Cubs receive: Nolan Arenado • Cardinals receive: Matt Shaw • Cardinals cover: $20-25 million of remaining salaryArenado’s no-trade clause is the main obstacle. He would need to approve a move to Chicago, but a chance to contend could factor into that decision.
What each team gets
Chicago Cubs:
• A clear upgrade at third base • Stronger infield defense alongside Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner • A veteran presence for a playoff push • Less reliance on development during a win-now stretch
Cardinals:
• A younger player with upside • Payroll relief • Flexibility to reshape the roster during a reset
Player comparison
CategoryNolan ArenadoMatt Shaw Age 34 23 2025 stats .237/.289/.377 .244/.307/.395 (projected) Career home runs 353 Limited MLB time Defense Ten Gold Gloves Solid, still unproven Experience 1,787 MLB games MinimalThe difference comes down to certainty. Arenado is known. Shaw is still a question.
Risks on both sides
For the Chicago Cubs, the concern is age and declining power. Nolan Arenado’s hard contact dropped in 2025, and that trend may continue. Trading with a division rival also carries backlash.For the Cardinals, the risk is betting on projection. Shaw may not develop into a long-term answer, and moving a franchise name is never easy.This is the type of move teams consider when timing matters. The Chicago Cubs are built to compete now. Arenado fits that goal better than waiting on development. St. Louis gets youth and financial relief.Also read: MLB trade rumors: New York Mets potentially eyeing $116.5 million Arizona Diamondbacks star to bolster rotation and improve title oddsIf the money lines up and Arenado agrees to the move, this is a rare rivalry trade that makes sense for both sides.