After two big deals, the pitching trade market recalibrated

Heading into the winter, Edward Cabrera was one of the hottest names on the trade market. The Miami Marlins right-hander was widely viewed as the most likely rotation piece to move as the club looked to stockpile prospects during its rebuild.

That picture has shifted. And it may have happened faster than expected.

According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, both the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles are no longer pursuing Cabrera. The change appears less about the pitcher’s value and more about how quickly the starting pitching market recalibrated after the Baltimore Orioles made their move for Shane Baz.

Baltimore had been linked to nearly every high-end starter available this offseason, both in free agency and on the trade market. That list included Cabrera, who fit the profile of a young, controllable arm with upside. The Orioles addressed that need last week by sending multiple prospects and a draft pick to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Baz, a deal that provided immediate rotation help but also consumed significant prospect capital. Once that trade was completed, a second major trade for another high-upside starter became far less realistic.

Houston followed a similar path.

The Astros entered the offseason with their rotation in flux after a wave of injuries in 2025, including Tommy John surgeries for Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter, along with another elbow setback for Luis Garcia. With Framber Valdez nearing free agency, Houston moved aggressively to add a controllable arm, acquiring Mike Burrows in a three-team deal headlined by Brandon Lowe.

That move came at a cost. Outfielder Jacob Melton, one of Houston’s top prospects, and right-hander Anderson Brito were sent to Tampa Bay as part of the deal, for an organization that has traded heavily in recent years, parting with that level of talent likely reduced its ability to assemble another premium package for Cabrera.

The Marlins, meanwhile, have little incentive to rush. After years of flashes interrupted by injuries, Cabrera delivered his most complete season in 2025, posting a 3.53 ERA across a career-high 137 2/3 innings. He maintained a 25.8 percent strikeout rate while trimming his walk rate into single digits for the first time. A brief return from a September elbow sprain in the final week of the season helped ease some health concerns heading into 2026.

Cabrera remains under team control through 2028 and is projected to earn $3.7 million in arbitration. Miami has been clear it does not want to sell short, and with two aggressive suitors having already spent significant prospect capital, patience is now a viable strategy.