Only two major league teams have yet to sign a free agent: the Colorado Rockies and the Boston Red Sox. The Rockies are, well, a unique situation. Undergoing possibly the first real management change in team history (though not in ownership), Colorado is mostly building a new team, new ethos from scratch. Assuming Paul DePodesta gets to make real changes. But the Red Sox? That’s strange.

Obviously John Henry and the rest of Fenway Sports Group’s portfolio is floating at the very top of all of this. And there is also something to be said about the strategy of signing and extending your own guys. Garret Whitlock, Brayan Bello, Kristian Campbell, Garret Crochet, and, of course, Roman Anthony are all part of this strategy.

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Last year Justin Wilson was signed for 1/$2.5 million. He was well off the top free agent lists. Is that exciting? Probably not. But there will be someone signed at the back of the roster at minimum.

In terms of the Top 50 guys though? It’s now very hard to predict. If the Sox want a big ticket free agent (which has a bit of flex definitionally) then there is probably only room for one based on our assumptions regarding spending. Per @RedSoxPayroll, and published more easily on SoxProspects, Boston’s payroll sits at $243.44 million, just under the first luxury tax threshold of $244.00. The second threshold is $264.00.

That doesn’t really leave room for a Bellinger (expected AAV $28 million), Bregman ($31 million), Tucker ($36 million), or even Suárez ($21 million) level free agent without either committing to the second threshold for 2026 or cutting payroll somewhere else. Which kind of brings us to Jarren Duran.

And you’d be tempted to say “ah, yes, Duran does it!” But Duran is making $7.70 million this season and, for example, Cole Ragans, is getting $4.6 million. If we do that math, yes, the Red Sox could still add a premium player and sit under the second threshold after that swap. Barely. A higher AAV and we’re back to the same problem. If they’ve worked so hard to stay under the first threshold then it seems like the goal is definitely to stay under the second, regardless of who else might be added.

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In terms of cost savings, Duran is the best option they have here: the other rumored players to move (Abreu, Masa) either make less or would require a large subsidy to send them out of town reducing the savings. Yet all trading Duran would do, CBT wise, is allow the Red Sox to sign a Justin Wilson type and then have a few million available for the deadline. Basically adding one bullpen filler arm from outside the organization and calling it a winter. Don’t get me wrong: Justin Wilson was useful! But when Craig Breslow and Sam Kennedy said they were targeting additions in free agency no one was picturing middle relief.

What it seems like if we have two possible situations unfolding. The first possibility is that the Bregman deal was worked out, essentially, months ago. And they’re kinda helping Scott Boras by keeping it vague. With or without a Duran trade, they’ll be just under or just over the second threshold. Nothing to worry about. We’re all simply impatient. Why they would do this is simply beyond me but maybe a favor to Scott Boras goes a long way? Bregman, for what it’s worth (probably zero), has changed his Instagram profile picture back to him in a Red Sox uniform recently.

The other possibility is that this is exactly like Bregman last year and the Sox know that there simply aren’t enough teams buying. It’s a game of musical chairs and as we close in on February and the WBC and Spring Training, players and their agents are going to want one of the empty seats and will sign for less, be it in money or years or both. Are you down on Eugenio Suárez as a low-OBP third baseman? Maybe he settles for one year. Are the Jays really going to turn off the money spigot now and let Bo Bichette go? Or does he sign somewhere (not implying Boston) for six years with opt outs after the first or second years to get into a better free agent class? Even Kyle Tucker, with injury issues, might be holding up a Duran trade as teams read the same thing: maybe he settles for less.

How do the Sox sign a free agent? The answer is the luxury tax, the early start to Spring Training for the WBC, and pressure/FOMO. Craig Breslow has been dealing with teams to make large and small trades. They’ve got the outfield surplus, a starting pitcher to spare (maybe, we’ve seen that show before), and Marcelo Mayer available for second base or third base. We don’t have enough information yet, but if Breslow makes a splash between now and February that’ll be two years in a row. Maybe this is intentional to some degree? There might be something beyond not spending money. At least we have to hope so. Because it’s a long season.