If history repeats, free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker might soon opt for a short-term contract with a higher average annual value, rather than the long-term, nine-figure contract he was broadly projected to sign when baseball’s offseason began.
As Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors pointed out in his recent Front Office subscriber chat, long-term free agent deals are usually official by the end of December.
More news: Former Cubs Pitcher, First-Round Draft Pick Dies Suddenly at 61
“The last free agent deal of 8+ years that didn’t happen in December was Bryce Harper in March 2019, with his 13-year deal coming a few weeks after Manny Machado’s ten-year pact,” Dierkes wrote. “Eric Hosmer got an eight-year deal in February 2018, and Prince Fielder signed for nine years in January 2012. That’s about it, though, so if we get to the new year without a Tucker deal, the odds start shifting toward a shorter term.”
Tucker could sign a long-term contract tomorrow and keep in line with historical precedent, but he has only four tomorrows left before January. At that point, the chances of the premier free agent on the market signing a short-term contract only increase.
Dierkes goes on to sugest that teams whose payroll exceed the various luxury-tax thresholds are poorly equipped to add Tucker (or another player) on a short-term deal. Teams whose payroll exceeds $304 million — the highest threshold — will see their 2026 luxury-tax bills skyrocket if they add a high-priced free agent whose salary can’t be spread out over several seasons.
More news: Red Sox Lose 21-Year-Old Pitching Prospect at Winter Meetings
The Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets would effectively have to pay out more than double Tucker’s base salary. Each would project to incur a 110 percent tax on Tucker’s salary in 2026 if they sign him. The Toronto Blue Jays are projected to land in the second-highest tax bracket (90 percent).
If Tucker strikes out in his quest for a long-term deal with one of those clubs, Dierkes suggests a not facing such steep luxury tax penalties — the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, or San Francisco Giants, for example — could be the best candidate to sign Tucker.
More news: Cubs All-Star Might Not Return From Injury Rehab Until After All-Star Break
Each free agent class is subject to unique market forces. A bidding war could emerge that allows Tucker to sign a long-term deal after next Wednesday. If that happens, however, it will be another example of an exception that proves the rule.
For more MLB news, visit Newsweek Sports.