For baseball fans, we’re fortunate to have a plethora of projection models to review. There’s Jared Cross’ Steamer, Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (Marcel), Nate Silver’s Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), Brian Cartwright’s Oliver, and Dan Szymborski’s Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS). Each projection system has its own merits — one isn’t necessarily better than another. Are they 100% accurate? No, which is perfectly fine. Predicting the future is tough.
However, they are fun to look at, and reviewing Szymborski’s projections helps the offseason progress a little faster! Just before Christmas, he dropped the Red Sox’s 2026 ZiPS projection. How does the model think the team will fare next year?
Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and the Rest of the Rotation
Is ZiPS secretly rooting for the Red Sox? It loves Garrett Crochet (don’t we all?), who is projected to generate 5.3 WAR, the second most among pitchers, trailing Tarik Skubal (6.0 WAR). Sonny Gray is currently viewed as the team’s number two starter. Compared to last season’s gap between Crochet and the rest of the rotation, ZiPS is high on Gray, projecting a 112 ERA+ across 154.0 IP. It’s also optimistic about Brayan Bello (104 ERA+). @Alex Mayes and I have talked heavily about Bello’s future on the Talk Sox Podcast. The team’s starting pitching success depends on Brayan Bello, the bridge to the front and back of the rotation. Despite notching three full seasons under his belt, the right-hander’s future remains uncertain Has he reached his full ceiling? Can he live up to his true potential? Moreover, what is his true potential? Could he be traded? Between Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison, the team has more than enough options to fill at the backend of the rotation. Regardless of the depth behind Bello, the rotation’s ceiling and stability hinges on whether he can emerge as a reliable anchor.
The Big, Beautiful Bullpen
Meanwhile, the bullpen looks great, aside from Zack Kelly. Aroldis Chapman is expected to have another successful season (143 ERA+, the team’s second-best mark, and a 2.74 FIP). After a strong season as a full-time reliever, ZiPS is keen on Garrett Whitlock, projecting a 132 ERA+ and 3.05 FIP.
Holes at 3B, 2B, and Catcher
It’s almost 2026. Following the Rafael Devers trade, Alex Bregman’s injury, and his eventual opt-out come the offseason, I feel like a broken record saying the Red Sox need infield depth. Fortunately, the Willson Contreras trade addressed depth at first base. However, for the rest of the infield, help is required. ZiPS views Marcelo Mayer as a third baseman, rather than a second baseman (where he played 57 innings in 2025). Excluding first base, Mayer can play wherever he’s needed in the infield.
Ceddanne Rafaela and Romy González are projected to net the most playing time at second. Free agents Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kazuma Okamoto are unsigned and could help fill holes at second or third, so Rafaela can man center field on a full-time basis. Bench players like Romy González (projected .266/.307/.426, 102 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) and David Hamilton (projected .228/.298/.359, 83 0PS+, 1.8 WAR) are valuable contributors to the team, but when injuries forced them into full-time roles, their overall performance suffered. The team must add an everyday player at either second or third and deploy the González and Hamilton as depth when needed, rather than expect them to carry the workloads of starters.
The catching group is projected to be around average. ZiPS is pessimistic about Carlos Narváez, projecting him to slash .224/.307/.362 with an 87 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR across 418 plate appearances. It expects Connor Wong’s bat to bounce back, though, slashing .248/.309/.386 with a 93 OPS+ and 0.6 WAR over 351 plate appearances. Maybe this is why the Red Sox have reportedly checked in on free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto?
After an emotionally turbulent season that featured the team’s first playoff appearance since 2021, the Red Sox are looking to build upon their success. ZiPS highlights areas of need in the roster, but overall is optimistic about the team’s future trajectory:
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“All told, ZiPS thinks the Red Sox ought to eclipse 90 wins and be seriously in the fight for the AL East title. ZiPS also thinks that Boston has less downside than its competition, and an awful lot would have to go wrong for this team to go back to where it was from 2022-24.”
Now, it’s up to Craig Breslow and the front office to fill the roster’s outstanding needs.