The San Francisco Giants made a calculated gamble this offseason by adding right-hander Tyler Mahle, betting that his talent will outweigh the durability concerns that have followed him in recent years.
If healthy, Mahle has shown he can be a reliable mid-rotation starter. The question facing San Francisco in 2026 is whether his body will finally cooperate over a full season.
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Mahle’s recent injury history is well documented. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, a procedure that effectively wiped out that season and required much of 2024 to complete his recovery and gradually build back arm strength.
The Texas Rangers signed him to a two-year, $22 million contract prior to the 2024 campaign, structured so Mahle earned a smaller portion of the deal in the first year while the bulk of the salary was deferred to the second season.
While Mahle successfully returned from elbow surgery, the more concerning issue turned out to be his right shoulder. Early in the 2025 season, he looked fully back to form.
Across his first 14 starts, Mahle posted dominant results, compiling a 6–3 record with a sparkling ERA in the low-2.00s.
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His command and ability to limit hard contact placed him among the league’s more effective starters during the first half, and he appeared on track for his strongest campaign since his peak years with the Cincinnati Reds.
That momentum came to a halt in mid-June when shoulder fatigue sent Mahle to the injured list.
What was initially expected to be a brief absence stretched into a prolonged shutdown after he was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain. The injury sidelined him for most of the summer and created a noticeable void in the Rangers’ rotation during a critical stretch of the season.
Mahle eventually returned late in the year and was effective in limited action, finishing with impressive overall numbers despite the missed time. However, the shoulder issues were not isolated.
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He had previously been shut down briefly in 2024 after experiencing shoulder tightness shortly after returning from elbow surgery. Notably, shoulder problems were not a recurring theme earlier in his MLB career, leaving uncertainty about whether this is a lingering concern moving forward.
For the Giants, the risk is clear—but so is the upside. Mahle doesn’t need to be an ace to justify the move.
If he can stay on the mound, he profiles as a dependable No. 3 starter behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, capable of providing quality innings and stability. San Francisco’s bet hinges on health, and 2026 will determine whether Mahle can finally deliver a full, uninterrupted season.
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