Sport: MLB

Catcher is already the most volatile position in fantasy baseball, which makes paying a premium at the position one of the riskiest bets on draft day. When discussing busts, we are not saying they lack talent or won’t provide offense. It all comes down to cost and return and that is where we turn to average draft position (ADP) data to help find the best draft day returns.

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A catcher drafted near the top of the position has to deliver a clear edge to justify the investment, and when production, playing time, or category impact falls even slightly short, the gap between ADP and actual value becomes glaring. In this article, we will evaluate the catchers who could underperform their ADP in 2026. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Baseball Catcher Busts
William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers): Average ADP(55)

Contreras ended up a bust in 2025 after going off the board as the top catcher. After a tremendous 2024 season, he saw a falloff in almost every statistical category, including average (.260), OBP (.355), wOBA (.332), wRC+ (113), runs (89), RBI (76), and home runs (17). While those aren’t terrible numbers from a real-life standpoint, they didn’t justify an early-round pick as the top catcher.

In his defense, he played through a fractured finger for most of the season, but also sustained another hand injury late in the season that produced a very underwhelming playoff run. In November, he had a minor procedure to repair that finger with a timeline of around six weeks. He should be a full go for spring training, and while his ADP has dropped into the 50’s in 2026, it still feels like drafting him at his ceiling, which is risky coming off an injury. The other concern was how teams adjusted to his biggest weakness, throwing him sliders 27.5% of the time (career-high) as it is his only negative value pitch (via Fangraphs). Looking further into his pitch value, he also saw a huge fall off against the fastball, albeit it could be somewhat correlated to the injury.

While I do think he is still a Top 5 fantasy catcher, I will not be drafting him at his current ADP and will instead be drafting Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Roman Anthony, and Jackson Merrill in the same range.

Hunter Goodman (Colorado Rockies): Average ADP(69)

Hunter Goodman’s jump to a Top 10 catcher pick in 2026 asks fantasy managers to believe in a breakout season just one year after he was drafted outside the top 350. That rise leaves almost no room for profit, making 2026 a year to evaluate the player, not pay full price for the projection.

It is easy to see where the hype is coming from, as his first full season with the Rockies was exceptional. Over 144 games, he tallied 31 home runs, 91 RBI, and 73 runs scored, while the biggest surprise was the .278 batting average. Adding to the fantasy hype is the fact that he gets to play half his games in Coors Field. The part that scares me is that Goodman sits below the 50th percentile in multiple areas, including xwOBA (47th), xBA (39), Chase % (8th), Whiff % (8th), K rate (17th), and walk rate (18th).

While I took advantage of getting Goodman late in drafts or on the waiver wire last year, I am not in the business of gambling on him repeating that in 2026. As I mentioned above, I will wait this one out, evaluate him further, and reassess for 2027.

Salvador Perez (Kansas City Royals): Average ADP(104)

Drafting Salvador Perez at his 2026 ADP requires betting on another peak-level outcome as he enters his 15th MLB season. With natural catcher decline looming and little room for profit at cost, 2026 is the ideal off-ramp for fantasy managers to exit before the downturn, not after it.

While he put up near career-high numbers in home runs (30) and RBI (100), we did see a decline in other areas, pointing to further regression. It starts with the .236/.284/.446 slash line, with each stat well below average when looking at his career numbers. The most concerning is the average, which was his worst since 2018 (.235) and second-worst of his career. Digging deeper, when looking at pitch value data, his performance against the fastball (-1.7) declined big time and was the first negative value on the pitch since 2016. This is a sign that the bat speed is declining. Looking at the advanced metrics, it, in fact, did drop off some and ranked in the 64th percentile (via baseballsavant). The other glaring drop off with the advanced stats was the average exit velo, taking him from the 80th percentile in 2024 to the 50th percentile in 2025. Finally, the walk rate dipped down to 4.4%, which, in turn, brought the OBP down and kept the runs scored in check.

As a large catcher(6’3″, 255 lb), he has fought off the decline for years, but I would rather be early than too late with aging players. Instead, I will wait a round or two and target Yainer Diaz(HOU) or wait even longer and draft Ivan Herrera(STL), Gabriel Moreno(ARI), or Francisco Alvarez(NYM).

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