David Frerker-Imagn Images

As you’re probably aware, the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires this year. Time flies, doesn’t it? The last time this happened, MLB locked out its players — the sport’s first work stoppage since the infamous strike that canceled the 1994 World Series.

The smart money is on there being another lockout next offseason; last time around, both sides did a lot of saber-rattling, but relatively little changed. We got the pre-arb bonus pool and some tinkering around the edges, but there was no salary cap, no abolition of the arbitration system, nothing that I’d describe as revolutionary. The duration of the lockout reflects that assessment; the stalemate lasted long enough to delay the season by a week, but not to cancel any games outright.

Having walked up to the verge of the abyss, peeked over the edge, and retreated, neither capital nor labor reaped a painful object lesson in the reality of all-out labor war. Last time that happened, it scared both sides into détente for 25 years. It seems reasonable to assume that either the players or owners might at least think about tickling the dragon’s tail next winter.

Still, all that’s a long way off. As great as the temptation is to view everything that happens this winter through the lens of a looming lockout, in my view it’s neither mentally healthy nor methodologically wise to do so. There’s a whole season to play, a whole World Series to win, between now and a lockout. If we get a lockout at all.

I’ve been on the lookout for creative contract structures — buyouts and big signing bonuses — that would suggest the players think they’re going to lose some or all of the 2027 season. Examples of that have been thin on the ground.

What we have seen, however, is some unusual spending from historically cheap clubs. The A’s extended Tyler Soderstrom and got on the end of a salary dump trade from the Mets. The Pirates called around to tell any reporter who’d listen that they were thinking about signing Kyle Schwarber, or latterly Eugenio Suárez; that’s typical We Tried nonsense, but then they actually went out and got Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe. There’s a reason Munetaka Murakami fell to the White Sox for as little as he did, but hey, good for Jerry Reinsdorf for finding his wallet.

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None of these signings indicates a new day dawning for baseball’s most notorious skinflints, but I’d rather the Pirates take a shot on someone like Lowe than let it ride with the most forgettable player they can find for the league minimum. It’s good that Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, and Mitch Keller will be working with merely meager run support this year, rather than none at all. In some more gullible sectors of the public, the Pirates might be able to spin themselves as a dark horse playoff contender.

If there were a systemic increase in spending among lower-payroll teams, that would be good for the league in two respects. First, revenue sharing payees do have a duty to spend the money they receive on improving their on-field product. If Bob Nutting takes the money he gets from Steve Cohen and uses it to pay his country club dues, not only does that piss off Cohen and the other richer owners, it opens the Pirates up to a grievance from the union. That’s why the A’s have been so busy over the past two offseasons.

Second, if even the Pirates and White Sox are in on major free agents, it weakens the players’ public case that those owners don’t care about fielding a competitive team. In the late 2010s, free agency slowed to a standstill; business got so slow it looked like the collusion era. Then, in the weeks and even days and hours before the last lockout, every free agent was getting a huge payday; a capital strike had turned into last call at the college bar that doesn’t check IDs.

In workplaces across the country, it’s pretty common for management to give out bonuses or raises either when the workers start to make noise about unionizing, or when a CBA is coming up. “We’ll take care of you; who needs a union?” is the message. And even though the union’s response is always to point out that those gains were only made under threat of worker action, it sometimes does blunt the engagement of the workers in the unit.

The question is: Is that actually happening? Are poorer teams making moves across the board, or am I getting dazzled by a handful of big signings or rumors?

There are 10 teams that fit one or both of the following criteria: They haven’t made the playoffs in the past three seasons, and/or they’ve recorded at least one 100-loss season in the past three seasons.

The Suckitude Honor Roll

Team
2025 Payroll

Angels
$206M

Athletics
$79M

Cardinals
$144M

Giants
$177M

Marlins
$70M

Nationals
$118M

Pirates
$87M

Rockies
$124M

Royals
$138M

White Sox
$85M

I’ve listed them with their 2025 payrolls because the point is to single out teams that are both bad and not trying. The Brewers were barely within $100 million of the first luxury tax threshold last year, but they had the best record in the majors and went to the NLCS; I’m not sure what I’m supposed to complain about there. Likewise the Angels, who have stunk out loud for most of the past two decades, but it’s not because they haven’t paid their players.

I want to concentrate on teams whose major league payrolls (not including bonus pool payments and player benefits, which count toward the CBT total) didn’t even get halfway to the $241 million luxury tax limit last year. From the list of non-contenders, there are five such clubs: The A’s, the Marlins, the Nats, the Pirates, and the White Sox.

Through the magic of RosterResource, we’re able to easily track each of those five teams’ major additions over the past two offseasons. By “major additions,” I mean either contract extensions or players acquired through trade or free agency who are making more than $1 million a year. So the Nationals’ trade for Harry Ford this winter, or the Pirates’ acquisitions of Spencer Horwitz and Jhostynxon Garcia may be significant in baseball terms, but not for the payroll.

Let’s see how these teams are doing.

I think the A’s are having a good offseason so far. Do I trust that this means John Fisher is committed to bringing a championship team to Las Vegas, like he says? Of course not. I’m not even convinced he’s going to bring a team of any kind to Las Vegas. But this is a decent roster that’s getting better.

But the A’s basically did the same thing last offseason: Extend some of the corner bats, trade for a veteran named Jeffrey. They look like George Steinbrenner’s Yankees next to certain other teams, but I don’t see a huge spike in spending or a pivot in team-building approach here.

Well, if you look at it a certain way, the Marlins have increased their free agent spending by almost 400% year-on-year. Back in the real world, one Pete Fairbanks does not a competitive ballclub make.

Just by sheer volume of free agents, it looks like the Nats actually took a step back this year. But in reality, most of Washington’s major offseason acquisitions from 2024-25 were one-year roster filler contracts; Lowe is the only player they picked up before last season whom I’d classify as anything resembling a big swing. With almost two months before spring training, I’d expect them to make a number of similar acquisitions before this season starts.

As it stands, the Pirates’ estimated 2026 payroll is just $96 million, which is up only $9 million from what it was in 2024 and 2025. They let all of last season’s one-year signings walk, plus they traded away the last $40 million or so of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ deal at the deadline. So the net spend isn’t as big as it looks.

With that said, yeah, I’d grant that the Pirates have been more aggressive this offseason. Lowe and O’Hearn are actual good players, which makes their signings much more exciting than throwing some token one-year contract at Andrew Heaney or Adam Frazier to go out there and be replacement level.

I’d evaluate the White Sox similarly; I personally have very serious doubts about Murakami, but I’ve been wrong before. Even if he stinks, Murakami is a much more exciting signing than anyone the Sox got last year; Martín Pérez is Spanish for Andrew Heaney. Kay was one of the best pitchers in NPB last season; signing him is the kind of thing a good team might do. The White Sox are probably going to stink in 2026, but this offseason is not a meditation on the futility of humanity’s exertions. Which is more than you could say for this team a year ago.

So of the five teams at the bottom of the competitive and payroll orders, only three have made more than a token effort to improve this offseason, one of those no more so than last year. With so many free agents left on the board and so much time left before the start of the season, that could obviously change. And believe me, if the White Sox throw $400 million at Kyle Tucker or something, we’ll talk about it.

But as far as a trend goes, I’m afraid I was a little too optimistic. The Little Sisters of the Poor are the same as they’ve ever been.