According to KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, the Twins and Trevor Larnach have agreed to terms on a $4.475 million contract for next season, avoiding an arbitration hearing. MLB Trade Rumors had projected Larnach to earn $4.7 million, so the final number comes in just under expectations and gives the Twins a bit of financial clarity as they continue to shape the roster for 2026.
On the surface, avoiding arbitration feels like standard operating procedure. Dig a little deeper, though, and this agreement says more about the Twins’ current roster crunch than it does about a long-term commitment to Larnach. There had been speculation that Minnesota could non-tender the outfielder altogether, mainly because the organization is flush with younger, cheaper alternatives. While $4.475 million is not the most expensive arbitration salary on the roster, it represents roughly five percent of a payroll estimated to land around $100 million in 2026. For this front office, every dollar still matters.
Larnach agreeing to terms with the Twins does not mean his future in Minnesota is secure. In fact, the opposite may be true. The Twins now have six left-handed hitting outfielders on the 40-man roster, and that group includes Larnach, Hendry Mendez, James Outman, Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Matt Wallner. That list does not even include top prospect Walker Jenkins, who is waiting in the wings at Triple-A and is very much part of the long-term plan.
As things stand, the Twins favor Wallner and Roden for regular roles early in 2026, with Outman serving as the primary backup to Byron Buxton in center field. Rodriguez and Mendez are expected to open the season in the minors, though Rodriguez in particular has the kind of upside that will force the issue if he is healthy and productive. In that context, it is difficult to find a clear path to consistent playing time for Larnach outside of a shared DH role.
With a set salary in place for 2026, Larnach becomes easier to move in a trade than he was during the arbitration guessing game. Cost certainty matters to other clubs, especially those trying to fill a corner outfield need without committing to a long-term deal.
From a performance standpoint, Larnach’s 2025 season was steady but unspectacular. He set a career high with 142 games played and led the team in that category, but his overall production landed just below league average. A 99 OPS+, a .250/.323/.404 (.727) slash line, 17 home runs, 60 RBI, a 9.3 BB%, and a 21.5 K% added up to a 0.1 bWAR. There is value there, particularly in durability, but it is not the kind of profile that brings back a significant return on its own.
The most realistic recent comparison for a potential Larnach deal is the Twins trading Nick Gordon for Steven Okert during spring training in 2024. That type of modest swap feels far more plausible than anything splashy. The challenge will be finding the right partner. Minnesota needs a team that is thin in the corner outfield and deep in bullpen arms, a combination that is not especially common around the league.
In the end, the Twins and Larnach avoiding arbitration is less about stability and more about flexibility. Minnesota gets a known cost on a player who still has some appeal, and Larnach gets paid without the uncertainty of a hearing. Whether he spends that season in a Twins uniform is another question entirely. As the outfield picture continues to crowd itself, this agreement feels like one step toward an eventual resolution rather than the final word.