(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Tony Gonsolin spent seven seasons in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, but now enters free agency at age 31. Three seasons removed from his dominant 2022 campaign, could the Padres rejuvenate the right-hander’s career?
Tony Gonsolin was the talk of the 2022 season, when he tossed a stifling 2.14 ERA over 130.1 innings.
His 0.87 WHIP was lower than both Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. The majority of his success stemmed from his nasty secondaries. He featured an elite splitter, Dylan Cease-esque slider, and a solid curveball. All of which returned a sub-.200 wOBA despite their frequent usage rates.
A right forearm strain cut into Gonsolin’s 2022 season, as he missed a little over a month. He made a two-inning start just before the Postseason, and was suddenly thrown into the fire in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Padres. He allowed a first-inning run to score, courtesy of Jake Cronenworth, and exited the game before completing two innings.
It was a rough end to such a promising season for Gonsolin, but he looked primed for continued dominance in the future. He was only 28 and entering a renewed role near the top of the contending Dodgers rotation.
Unfortunately for Gonsolin, a foot injury delayed his season debut by a month. He started strong, but faltered to a 4.98 ERA before hitting the shelf with right forearm inflammation. Gonsolin quickly learned that he needed Tommy John surgery, which forced him to miss all of 2024.
In 2025, Gonsolin returned to physical form, recording improved velocity and spin rates. However, the same results failed to return. He posted a 5.00 ERA over 36 innings, but hit the IL with discomfort in his throwing arm. His career essentially fell into jeopardy when the team announced that he would undergo revision surgery to his internal brace and flexor tendon. He’s expected to miss most of next season, and there’s reasonable doubt that he could even see a big league mound in 2026 at all.
So, why should the Padres even consider such a troublesome pitcher when they need rotation help right away?
The upside
Essentially, there’s no expectation for Gonsolin to make any impact in 2o26. It would be welcomed, but it isn’t what anyone would be signing him for. Preferably, he’d sign a two-year pact, securing his services for one fully healthy season.
While the Padres are dealing with numerous free agent departures this offseason, the 2026 offseason projects to be quite different. San Diego only has three players set to hit the market following the 2026 season: Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Ramon Laureano.
In this sense, the Padres will likely be very rounded out heading into 2027. The entire rotation and offensive core would still be in place.
If the Padres could add a healthy Gonsolin to their 2027 starting rotation, that unit could suddenly take off. With top prospect Miguel Mendez hopefully having arrived, Gonsolin could round out a talented group. The rotation could look like this:
SP1: Michael King
SP2: Joe Musgrove
SP3: Miguel Mendez
SP4: Nick Pivetta
SP5: Tony Gonsolin
In just a year, the Padres could transition to a roster that features strength in all three facets of the game. San Diego would feature a strong rotation, bullpen, and lineup in the year of 2027. As a note, that’s even without bringing Yu Darvish‘s questionable status into the equation.
Circling back, Tony Gonsolin would basically ensure that the Padres don’t need to “dumpster dive” for a fifth starting pitcher. Hoping that he’s able to regain around 80% of his peak level of production, Gonsolin would provide true stability for the pitching staff. Typically, swingmen and spot-starters tend to be incredibly inconsistent. In having Gonsolin, San Diego could be competitive in the early half of more games.
My first tweet of 2024 is Tony Gonsolin
2022 NL All-Star
16-1 and a 2.14 ERA
3.12 xERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 28.7 CSW%
The MLB is TERRIFIED of what Tony Gonsolin will do in the future ?
pic.twitter.com/I7Lio8gCsr
— Gavin Lux truther (@DeVriesBurner) January 1, 2024
The downside
The downside to bringing in Gonsolin this season is that you’d be dishing out cash to someone who won’t be able to help you much in 2026. The Padres are actively searching for help on the starting pitching market. Gonsolin, at least in 2026, won’t be able to provide that help.
The other risk you’re taking with Gonsolin is his health post-surgery. Although there are plenty of positive cases, the track record for pitchers who undergo a second-TJ surgery isn’t generally favorable. It would be a huge blow if Gonsolin were to miss a chunk of 2027, as much of his contract would go to waste.
Finally, the initial suspicion surrounding Gonsolin was that he got “lucky” in 2022. That year, he severely outperformed his expected stats, and he didn’t complete the entire season. It’s clear that he was performing among the best, but many could argue that he would’ve regressed, regardless of his arm health. For 2027 and beyond, the hope is that with plenty of time to ramp up, Gonsolin will recapture his feel for pitching and become a viable option in his later years.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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