Texas Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young won’t outright shut the door on further reinforcements. Not with a month still left before pitchers and catchers report to Surprise, Ariz., at least, and not with a few holes they’d still like to patch in the rotation and bullpen.
So Young, on a Friday morning call with reporters, said that the Rangers will be “open minded and opportunistic” toward any further additions but reiterated that “pitching is the main focus.”
That prompts a question — one asked often last season when the Rangers missed the postseason in spite of a franchise-best rotation and above-average bullpen — in regards to the other half of their roster.
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“I think from a position player standpoint,” Young said, “we feel pretty good.”
The Rangers, who were a bottom-five offense leaguewide by most major statistical categories last season, will all but likely run into this season with the group that they’ve got and the group that they’ve already made not-so-insignificant tweaks to this winter.
Second baseman Marcus Semien, outfielder Adolis García and catcher Jonah Heim are out. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo and catcher Danny Jansen are in. Or, to measure it in a different way, three players who were below league average hitters last season are out and two who were above league average hitters last season are in.
All signs point to status quo elsewhere among their crop of position players.
Here’s what that means.
Second base will be filled internally
The Rangers initially didn’t rule out an external addition at second base after Semien was traded. Their comments through the offseason and at the winter meetings suggested that their philosophy leaned internal. Young’s declaration Friday confirmed it.
Super utility man Josh Smith, a middle infielder by trade, remains the favorite to win the everyday job. His ability to sustain performance over the course of an entire season will determine whether he can keep it. The 27 year old’s on base plus slugging percentage fell by an average of .237 percentage points after the All-Star break in the last two years after an impressive first half in each campaign.
Manager Skip Schumaker said that Smith is “motivated to show that he’s not only a first-half guy” and Young acknowledged that the Rangers haven’t “done Smitty any favors” with how often he’s been used across the diamond in different roles.
Smith is the most-experienced in-house option. Others include infielder Cody Freeman (who provided a jolt of energy in the second half of last season as a rookie) and infielder Ezequiel Duran (who starred in relief of shortstop Corey Seager three seasons ago but hasn’t maintained success at the major league level since). Rangers general manager Ross Fenstermaker said Friday that Duran’s performance in the Dominican Professional Baseball League this winter — where he’s slashed .338/.399/.463 in 35 games — has amounted to a “really productive” offseason.
The outfield is in place — sort of
The Rangers will proceed into camp with two guaranteed starters in the outfield (Wyatt Langford and Brandon Nimmo) and a whopper of a question that’ll need to be answered.
Let’s try questions.
Can Evan Carter’s body hold up for an entire season?
Can he hit left-handed pitchers well enough to avoid platoon duty?
Can second-year sparkplug Alejandro Osuna earn a bigger role?
Can Sam Haggerty or Michael Helman provide enough depth at the position?
The outfield remains the club’s most high-profile to-be-determined position battle even if two of the jobs are already spoken for. The upside variance is high if Carter, once the club’s top prospect, can avoid the injured list and maintain the on-base abilities that made him a postseason hero three seasons ago. It’s even greater if the 23-year-old can meaningfully improve his at bats against lefties (whom he is 5 for 60 against in his career) and certify himself as an everyday player.
Langford (potentially in center field), Nimmo (in one of the corner positions) and a healthy Carter could provide the Rangers an above average outfield with an All-Star caliber hitter, a dependable veteran and a high-upside youngster who’s performed in pressure moments. It becomes a more complicated situation if Carter doesn’t seize a full-time job — either by way of health or ability — and tests the team’s depth.
Osuna, 23, flashed potential at times in his rookie season but still only yielded a .591 OPS and a .091 average against left-handed pitchers. Haggerty slashed .318/.376/.435 against lefties last season and may be best fit to platoon with Carter if the team chooses that route. Helman’s surprise emergence was one of few offensive bright spots in an otherwise wayward season last year. He only hit .217 in September, though, after he earned regular starts.
Internal improvement is needed
The Rangers declined to improve their lineup at last summer’s trade deadline and instead sought rotation and bullpen reinforcements. The market — and the cost that it’d require to add a bat of significance — was one reason.
The other?
The Rangers needed more than just one (or, even, two) additional bats to fix last season’s offense, and even if one were acquired, wholesale internal improvements would’ve been required to create meaningful change. In other words: a fourth or fifth outfielder could’ve only done so much if the rest of the team didn’t buck the worrisome trends that’d plagued them all season to that point.
Consider the Rangers in a similar position this winter. The success of this season’s offense, if the team is no longer in acquisition mode, will hinge on whether those who struggled and stumbled last year can revert their courses.
The discussion might start and end with the J-Squad. First baseman Jake Burger (.687 OPS), third baseman Josh Jung (.684 OPS) and designated hitter Joc Pederson (.614 OPS) were each below-league-average hitters last season. Burger took three trips to the injured list. Jung spent a chunk of time at Triple-A Round Rock to reconfigure his swing. Pederson started dreadfully before he missed months with a broken hand. It was not a recipe for success or even mediocrity.
Steamer, a FanGraphs prediction model, projects significant improvement for each. Burger, per Steamer, is projected to slash .246/.298/.455 with 24 home runs. Jung is slated at .252/.298/.422 and 15 home runs. Pederson — whose career track record suggests progression to the norm may come — is down for a .240/.338/.442 and 16 home runs. The average of their projected wRC+ ratings (an advanced metric that measures offense production in which ‘100′ is league average) equals 109. Only two full-time players on last year’s roster cracked that threshold.
Those are not necessarilly All-Star numbers.
They are improved numbers, though, the mark of which could create meaningful improvement.
“We, as an organization, have a lot to prove,” Young said. “These players are motivated and hungry. Not to say that they weren’t last year, but, there’s an edge to these guys. There’s an edge to the coaching staff and us as a front office. We all have a lot to prove.”
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