For a minute there, you thought the stories would be the bad first inning for Matthew Boyd and the continuing implosion of Julian Merryweather. These aren’t those Cubs. This team has so much fight in it and so a 6-2 early deficit became a 13-6 win. Eleven unanswered runs over the game’s final three innings. I’ll mention the two early storylines in passing. Boyd has been great. He’s earned a clunker without us giving up on him. I’ll at least give him a nod for bouncing back and allowing one run over three after the disastrous first.
Julian Merryweather is not combat operational at this time. You never want to wish injury on anyone, but you have to hope there is something off physically so that you can shut him down for a little while and then get some innings away from the major league team. I see lots of calls to just cut bait on him. I get that, but sometimes, you just need a tweak or two and a formerly successful pitcher can get it back. If he’s healthy and you can’t put him on he injured list, I don’t know how long you can carry him or how you could use him. Especially when Ryan Pressly is throwing when the team is way up. You can only have so many guys who you are only using in blowouts.
Enough about the downside of this game. Pete Crow-Armstrong just brought the Reds to their knees in the opener. Two homers and six runs batted in. For a little while he was leading the National League in RBI. For what it’s worth, when he lost that lead, it was to Seiya Suzuki. The two of them combined for six hits, three homers, two doubles, nine runs batted in and five runs. That was a really dynamic duo, PCA batted fourth for the first time and he flat out killed it. Seiya sandwiched between two of the most productive left-handed hitters so far this year is a problem for opposing teams. I flat out love him in that spot. And I love PCA behind Tucker so that he can be aggressive on the bases when the situation allows.
He won’t receive mention anywhere else, so I’ll also use a couple of sentences on Chris Flexen. He got things back squared away after the Merryweather struggle. For the third consecutive game, a Cubs pitcher records more outs than batters faced. Pick off, double play, caught stealing. Three different ways to do it.
This just has a really, really good vibe to it. Three straight wins. Three up in the division (very early). Eleven over .500. Things are just vibing with this team. Someone who is better at crunching numbers than I, let me know how this team stacks up with historic Cubs teams through 51 games. I know the 2016 Cubs were pummeling teams into submission early. This feels like a historic pace. This was the team offensively that I always thought that group was going to be when Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Contreras, Schwarber, Baez and Soler were coming up.
When that team was being built, I thought they would put up crooked numbers seemingly every day. Save for a few glorious months early in 2016 and a few good ones at the end of 2015, it’s hard to remember this team being this good for this long offensively. Maybe I’m just caught up in it. But this just feels really exceptional. Whatever the case, I’m just enjoying this ride.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 187, 44 BF
Reds: 198, 45 BF
First things first, the Cub numbers are terrible. You’re going to lose most of the time when you throw 180+ pitches. I don’t have any data, but I feel like ideally, you want to be under 130 pitches. I will say this though. After Boyd and Merryweather struggled and failed to get the Cubs through five, the remainder of the bullpen did quite well. Again, Flexen really flipped it with the help of a caught stealing from Carson Kelly. In theory, those back four relievers are all available Saturday and certainly all of them are available by Sunday. Merryweather may make an available number via his roster spot.
On the Reds side, obviously even worse numbers. Greene was throwing over 20 pitches an inning while coming off of injury. He pitched relatively well but was out after four. The Reds used six relievers. So there’s no question their leverage relievers got into this one. The real disaster for them was Tony Santillan who faced four batters, got none of them out and was charged with three runs. But everyone who threw over the last three innings got battered.
Brent Suter and Luis Mey each threw more than 20 pitches, Suter more than 30. It’s hard to imagine either being used Saturday. These things matter. You can steal an extra win with collateral damage.
Three Stars:
PCA gets the top spot. Three hits, two homers and a double, six runs batted in, two runs scored.
Seiya Suzuki had three hits, a double and a homer, three runs batted in and three runs. I know it’s easier said than done, but I’m dreaming on Kyle Tucker, PCA and Suzuki.
Nico Hoerner had a big game, a bit more quietly. He had three hits, two of the double and he scored two runs.
Game 51, May 23: Cubs 13, Reds 6 (31-20)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: PCA (.543). 3-5, 2 HR, 2B, 6 RBI, 3 R
*3rd biggest WPA game score of the year by a Cub (he also presently has the 5th biggest)
Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.220). 3-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 3 R
Sidekick: Brad Keller (.089). IP, 5 BF, H, BB, K
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.184). 4 IP, 22 BF, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 3 K, WP
Goat: Julian Merryweather (-.120). ⅔ IP, 6 BF, 3 H, BB, 2 ER
Kid: Michael Busch/Dansby Swanson/Matt Shaw (-.038). Busch: 0-4, BB, Swanson: 1-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R; Shaw: 0-5, R
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s grand slam with one out in the seventh turned a two-run deficit into a two-run lead. (.430)
*Reds Play of the Game: (The six largest WPA plays all went in the Cubs direction, befitting a 6-2 to 13-6 turn around). Santiago Espinal singled with a runner on second and no outs in the bottom of the second. (.086)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
0%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(0 votes)
88 votes total
Wednesday’s Winner: Kyle Tucker received 239 of 307 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +21
Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
PCA +9.5
Dansby Swanson -8.33
Ben Brown -11
Michael Busch -11.33
Seiya Suzuki -11.5
Julian Merryweather -15
Up Next: Game two Saturday night in Cincinnati. The Cubs send Colin Rea (3-0, 2.38, 41⅔ IP) to the mound. Colin has started four games already in May. He’s 2-0 with a 3.52 over 23 innings of work. Going back one further, he’s won three of his last five starts. Colin has been really steady. He was 1-0 in two starts against the Reds, but didn’t perform all that well overall.
25-year-old Andrew Abbott (3-0, 1.80, 35 IP) will be making his eighth start of the year. The lefty has made 53 career appearances, all stars. He has a 21-16 career mark with a 3.54 ERA in 282⅓ innings. He’s been dominant in four starts in May, 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA in 20 innings of work. His issue is getting deep into games. He’s issued 15 walks in 35 innings. But he strikes out a ton of batters, with 43 already. He faced the Cubs once last year, won and it was a strong start.
The Cubs’ two best hitters are left-handed. Happ hits better from the left side and Michael Busch is left-handed. That all adds up to the Cubs being a better team against right-handed pitchers. I would expect that if the Cubs continue to sit among the top teams in baseball that teams look for an opportunity to add an extra (effective) lefty along the way.